The Norwegian parliamentary election of 2021: Solberg makes way for Store

 Yesterday's Norwegian parliamentary election of 2021 marked a surprising defeat for the Conservative (Hoyre)-led coalition (with the Liberals and Christian Democrats as coalition partners, with the Progress Party having withdrawn from it in 2020) of Erna Solberg, and just four months ago the Conservatives were about to displace Labour (Arbeitpartiet) as the largest party in the Storting, Norway's parliament.

Instead it was Jonas Gahr Store, leader of Labour, and also the other opposition parties (Centre, Socialist Left, the Greens, and the Red Party), who emerged triumphant in this election. The Conservatives lost 9 seats, and the Progress Party's withdrawal from Mrs Solberg's coalition did them no favours either, as they lost 6 seats and dropped to 4th place behind the Centre Party. The Liberals fared surprisingly well despite still being in the governing coalition-contrary to expectations they stayed above the 4% threshold required for compensatory list seats and even slightly increased their vote share, although they stayed on 8 seats. This was not the case for the Christian Democrats, however, who achieved their worst vote share since 1936, 3.8%, and it crucially meant they only held on to 3 constituency seats in southeast Norway near the Norwegian "Bible Belt". Arguably however as Norway (like most other MEDCs) gets more secular and more urbanised (even if this means simply the merging of towns rather than expansion of existing metropolitan sprawl) with the passage of time the voter base of the Christian Democrats and similar parties inexorably declines. 

Labour actually lost 1 seat in this election, even as they emerged triumphant, although first and foremost this is due to the rise of the Marxist Red Party particularly in industrial towns, to the point where they were able to cross the 4% threshold, with them and their predecessors having languished on the fringes for decades. The Red Party polled 4.7% although this was below prior expectations, but it gave them 8 seats and 6th place (up from 9th). Their youthful and energetic leader Bjornar Moxnes has been a key factor in their rise but also because many socialist voters in Norway still have not forgiven Labour or the Socialist Left for supporting the NATO-led war in Libya or opening the Barents Sea to oil drilling. The Socialist Left gained 2 seats but it was the Centre Party who gained the most seats compared to 2017, winning an extra 9, mainly from lapsed Christian Democrat voters, moderate Progress voters, and Conservative voters in the rural north.

The biggest disappointment of this election came for the Green Party of Norway, who were on tenterhooks to pass the 4% threshold and acquire compensatory seats. However, they only polled 3.8% in the end, only narrowly ahead of the Christian Democrats and not enough to win compensatory seats although they did win 2 extra seats via another mandate in the Norwegian capital of Oslo and a mandate in Akershus, covering what amounts to Oslo's commuter belt. Their key problem was failing to pick up extra votes in rural counties, which the Red Party did by winning over lapsed Labour voters even when in competition with Socialist Left (primarily because they find it easier to appeal to an "Old Labour" set far from the heavily urbanised south of Norway), even though rural areas will be hit harder by man-made climate change than urban areas, partly because of greater dependency on oil reserves even with a pressing need to transition away from oil (Norway is planning to ban sales of new petrol and diesel powered cars this decade, for example). Another reason they failed to cross that threshold was their change of heart in relation to nuclear energy, which alienated some traditional Green voters, partly to the Centre Party's benefit. 

The single-issue Patient Focus Party, campaigning for a new hospital in Finnmark (formerly the northernmost county in Norway and largely within the Arctic Circle; in 2020 it merged with Troms although constituency counts for this election were still on the pre-2020 counties of Norway), was the only other party to win any seats, winning a constituency mandate in Finnmark itself, remarkably similar to how single-issue campaigning on health issues elected Richard Taylor, Kieran Deeny and Jean Turner to the UK Parliament, Northern Ireland Assembly and Scottish Parliament respectively in the 2000s. Of the other parties in Norway, only the Democrats in Norway polled more than 1%, primarily due to winning over lapsed Progress voters who were not impressed with the Progress Party's seemingly opportunistic withdrawal from the governing coalition, although there is less of a Eurosceptic vote to capitalise on compared to Denmark or Sweden since Norway is not and never has been a member of the European Union. The wooden spoon of this election went to the Generation Party, who polled 88 votes, the lowest ever votes polled by a party in Norwegian history.

Turnout dropped slightly to 77% although this turnout level is average for Norwegian parliamentary elections, which constitutionally are on four-year fixed terms so voters always know when to expect them, and where turnouts are almost always in the 75-80% range. It is certain that Mr Store will become Norway's next Prime Minister, and that the Centre Party and Socialist Left Parties will join Labour as junior coalition partners, since neither the Greens nor the Red Party will contemplate doing so.