My analysis of British local by-elections from 18 November 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from yesterday were as follows:

Canterbury DC, Gorrell: Green 1,149 (43.9%, +15.7%), Labour 803 (30.7%, -10.6%), Conservative 608 (23.2%, +0.5%), Workers' Party of Great Britain 58 (2.2%). Green gain from Labour. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Liverpool MBC, Anfield: Labour 604 (55.9%, -11.5%), Liberal 281 (26.0%, +15.0%), Liberal Democrats 73 (6.8%, +2.1%), Green 72 (6.7%, -0.9%), Conservative 42 (3.9%, -1.4%), Adam Hetherington 9 (0.8%). All changes are since May. [Other Independent candidate did not stand; No Description candidates count as Independents and are listed by name only if not officially an Independent on the ballot paper]

Liverpool MBC, Clubmoor: Labour 787 (54.5%, -7.6%), Liberal 324 (22.4%, +3.2%), Independent (Wharton) 167 (11.6%), TUSC 54 (3.7%), Green 45 (3.1%, -4.7%), Liberal Democrats 34 (2.4%, -3.2%), Conservative 33 (2.3%, -3.0%). All changes are since May.

Liverpool MBC, Kirkdale: Labour 852 (61.7%, +2.3%), Peter Furmedge 171 (12.4%), Green 160 (11.6%, -0.1%), TUSC 84 (6.1%, -5.2%), Conservative 57 (4.1%, -1.7%), Liberal Democrats 57 (4.1%, -3.9%). All changes are since May. [Liberal Party did not stand]

Manchester MBC, Chorlton: Labour 1,581 (52.1%, -15.9%), Liberal Democrats 657 (21.7%, +16.3%), Green 608 (20.1%, +3.0%), Conservative 93 (3.1%, -3.0%), Women's Equality Party 66 (2.2%, -0.4%), Independent (Harnett) 27 (0.9%). All changes are since May.

Ryedale DC, Cropton: Liberal 202 (39.6%, -15.5%), Conservative 155 (30.4%, +10.9%), Green 121 (23.7%), Labour 32 (6.3%). [No Independent candidates this time]

South Ribble DC, Bamber Bridge East: Labour 376 (53.7%, +7.5%), Conservative 275 (39.3%, +10.1%), Green 49 (7.0%).

Tewkesbury DC, Brockworth East: Charlotte Mills 499 (68.3%), Conservative 110 (15.0%, -8.6%), Liberal Democrats 87 (11.9%, +1.0%), Labour 35 (4.8%).

West Devon DC, Bere Ferrers: Conservative 362 (32.5%, -2.0%), Labour 361 (32.4%, +15.3%), Liberal Democrats 216 (19.4%, -7.9%), Green 176 (15.8%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat. [UKIP did not stand]

The Green Party first stood in local and parliamentary elections in Canterbury in 1983, back when they were called the Ecology Party. After 38 years, the Green Party finally won a seat on Canterbury District Council, having come close to winning a seat in Gorrell ward in 2019. The absence of a Liberal Democrat indirectly proved helpful to the Greens as well. They could not emulate that success in Chorlton, Manchester, however, despite having achieved a good second place in that ward in May.

The continuity Liberal Party, originally composed of members of the old Liberal Party who opposed the merger of that party with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) to form the Liberal Democrats in 1988, had some surprisingly strong performances in the three by-elections in which they stood. In the two Liverpudlian by-elections in which they stood (Anfield and Clubmoor, they did not stand in Kirkdale), they achieved second place in solidly Labour wards, although this was also attributable to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer recently writing an opinion piece for The Sun, and this tabloid newspaper has been taboo in Liverpool and the rest of Merseyside ever since it smeared Liverpool FC supporters who were victims of the 1989 Hillsborough disaster. What was also notable about all three Liverpudlian by-elections was the appalling turnout, even by the standards of local by-elections in safe Labour wards: 11.6% on average. The third by-election, Cropton in Ryedale, was held by a long-standing Liberal councillor, John Clark, until he died earlier this year; his son Alasdair held the seat even though a good Green performance indirectly cut the Liberal majority over the Conservative. This will also be the last by-election in Ryedale, which like all districts in North Yorkshire is set to be abolished due to shadow elections for the new North Yorkshire unitary authority occurring in May 2022, and the "six month rule" (if a council seat becomes vacant less than six months before it is next up for election, no by-election is held in the intervening period) for council seats up for election in May 2022 is now in effect. 

Finally, the Bere Ferrers by-election in West Devon, located in the constituency of Torridge & West Devon whose Conservative MP, Geoffrey Cox, has been much in the news over his consultancy work (amidst a debate about whether second jobs should be banned for MPs) in the British Virgin Islands, resulted in a surprise Conservative gain, in yet another clear exercise about how first past the post is bad for democracy. Labour missed out on winning by only a single vote, and this Conservative gain gave the Conservatives overall control of West Devon District Council, and both the top two candidates polled less than a third of the votes cast apiece. Incidentally Bere Ferrers is the only ward in West Devon to have ever elected a Labour councillor since West Devon's inaugural election of 1973, partly due to its closeness to Plymouth. That by-election proved to be a rare four-way contest, with the Greens polling nearly half the Conservative vote despite finishing fourth.

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