Why a November 2019 general election is still likely

Yesterday, Labour's abstention on the vote for an early general election on 15th October 2019 ensured that vote would fail under the provisions of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011, which requires two-thirds of all MPs to approve such a vote (434).

However, there are three good reasons why we should all keep a look out for an early general election in November this year:

1. The recent decision to prorogue Parliament has forced business to move quickly. Before the prorogation starts, Parliament only has four more days from today to resolve remaining Parliamentary business, with legal challenges to Boris Johnson's prorogation having failed in Scottish courts. Furthermore, public opposition to the prorogation, designed to force through a no-deal Brexit, will likely necessitate an election to resolve the deadlock.

2. The current government has no working majority at all. In fact it has a working majority of -42 due to 21 Conservative MPs, most of whom represent affluent, mainly owner-occupied constituencies in the south of England which also had above average Remain votes and high proportions of graduates meaning they contain large numbers of professional commuters. having had the whip removed on Tuesday for voting against a no-deal Brexit, not to mention the defection of Phillip Lee to the Liberal Democrats earlier that day. This means that the opposition now controls the agenda in effect, having seized control of Commons business when Parliament reconvened on Tuesday. Thus it has no chance of surviving a vote of no confidence, which is likely to be called once a no-deal Brexit is firmly stopped.

3. It may be the only way to help break the Brexit deadlock in the short term. The departure date is still 31st October and the EU has repeatedly refused to renegotiate the proposed exit deal. It will likely not be possible to stage a second vote of the EU membership referendum despite increasing public support until a new general election can replace the current government, and Parliament currently shows no signs of revoking Article 50 completely..

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