My analysis of the Manitoban provincial election of 2019
The Manitoban general election of 2019, held two days ago, produced surprisingly little change, given that nationally in Canada the Liberals and Conservatives have been neck and neck in opinion polls; furthermore the next Canadian federal election is now less than six weeks away.
There was a swing of 5.84% from the Conservatives to the New Democratic Party, but this is rather low by Canadian standards. Of the 57 ridings only 7 changed hands, and in two of them (Keewatinook and St James) the incumbent retired (Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoreux moved ridings from Burrows to Tyndall Park; she gained Tyndall Park but the NDP gained Burrows).
The NDP's vote share increase of 5.65% gained them 5 ridings (3 Conservative, 2 Liberal), losing only Tyndall Park to Cindy Lamoreux of the Liberals. One notable disappointment was their failure to gain the new riding of McPhillips (named for McPhillips street in Winnipeg, by the way, not a Canadian with that surname) by 105 votes, as well as key marginal ridings on the outskirts of Winnipeg. Although the Liberals' vote share stayed almost exactly the same as their 2016 vote share, they lost 2 ridings with retiring incumbents. Manitoba is the Liberals' weakest province in Canada overall and the Liberals mainly rely on personal votes in that province which is why their only gain this year was by an incumbent changing ridings in the wake of the redistribution, which abolished only two ridings and created only two new ridings; Winnipeg, which alone has nearly 60% of Manitoba's population, has little room to expand.
The Greens of Manitoba were more disappointed than most. They failed to achieve any swing against the NDP in their best hope, Wolseley, partly because the previous incumbent in that riding, Rob Altermeyer, retired at this provincial election. and they only increased their vote share by 1.3% partly because 14 ridings in this Manitoban election had no Green candidate. Its leader, James Beddome, finished third in Fort Rouge and the only other second places they obtained were in rock solidly Conservative ridings, namely Morden-Winkler and Turtle Mountain. To maintain a position as credible challengers for government, political parties must do their best to run candidates for all available constituencies, whether they be single or multi member constituencies.
The Manitoba First party, similar to the former Wildrose Party of Alberta in economic and social outlook (see my blog posts on Alberta provincial elections for details) having achieved some respectable votes in a few ridings in 2016, almost vanished without trace. Only in McPhillips and Red River North did any Manitoba First candidate poll more than 100 votes, and the splinter group Manitoba Forward fared little better apart from the isolated case of Burrows, partly due to Liberal voters annoyed with Cindy Lamoreux' decision to switch ridings unnecessarily. The Communist Party of Canada barely registered in Manitoba, failing to get 100 votes in any riding. Cliff Graydon, an ex-Conservative MLA standing as an Independent having been removed from the Conservative caucus in the Manitoban assembly following allegations of sexual harassment, finished a poor third in the Bordeland riding, similar to his old Emerson riding.
Overall, little changed politically in Manitoba this year. However, the upcoming Canadian federal election will be another story entirely.
There was a swing of 5.84% from the Conservatives to the New Democratic Party, but this is rather low by Canadian standards. Of the 57 ridings only 7 changed hands, and in two of them (Keewatinook and St James) the incumbent retired (Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoreux moved ridings from Burrows to Tyndall Park; she gained Tyndall Park but the NDP gained Burrows).
The NDP's vote share increase of 5.65% gained them 5 ridings (3 Conservative, 2 Liberal), losing only Tyndall Park to Cindy Lamoreux of the Liberals. One notable disappointment was their failure to gain the new riding of McPhillips (named for McPhillips street in Winnipeg, by the way, not a Canadian with that surname) by 105 votes, as well as key marginal ridings on the outskirts of Winnipeg. Although the Liberals' vote share stayed almost exactly the same as their 2016 vote share, they lost 2 ridings with retiring incumbents. Manitoba is the Liberals' weakest province in Canada overall and the Liberals mainly rely on personal votes in that province which is why their only gain this year was by an incumbent changing ridings in the wake of the redistribution, which abolished only two ridings and created only two new ridings; Winnipeg, which alone has nearly 60% of Manitoba's population, has little room to expand.
The Greens of Manitoba were more disappointed than most. They failed to achieve any swing against the NDP in their best hope, Wolseley, partly because the previous incumbent in that riding, Rob Altermeyer, retired at this provincial election. and they only increased their vote share by 1.3% partly because 14 ridings in this Manitoban election had no Green candidate. Its leader, James Beddome, finished third in Fort Rouge and the only other second places they obtained were in rock solidly Conservative ridings, namely Morden-Winkler and Turtle Mountain. To maintain a position as credible challengers for government, political parties must do their best to run candidates for all available constituencies, whether they be single or multi member constituencies.
The Manitoba First party, similar to the former Wildrose Party of Alberta in economic and social outlook (see my blog posts on Alberta provincial elections for details) having achieved some respectable votes in a few ridings in 2016, almost vanished without trace. Only in McPhillips and Red River North did any Manitoba First candidate poll more than 100 votes, and the splinter group Manitoba Forward fared little better apart from the isolated case of Burrows, partly due to Liberal voters annoyed with Cindy Lamoreux' decision to switch ridings unnecessarily. The Communist Party of Canada barely registered in Manitoba, failing to get 100 votes in any riding. Cliff Graydon, an ex-Conservative MLA standing as an Independent having been removed from the Conservative caucus in the Manitoban assembly following allegations of sexual harassment, finished a poor third in the Bordeland riding, similar to his old Emerson riding.
Overall, little changed politically in Manitoba this year. However, the upcoming Canadian federal election will be another story entirely.
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