The September 2019 Israeli general election: Blues and Whites nix Netanyahu's chances
The snap Israeli Knesset election, which took place yesterday just five months after the previous Knesset election, resulted in a narrow but nevertheless convincing defeat for Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party. It was the first time that a government had not been formed successfully in Israel.
In fact, although Likud only lost 4 seats compared to April 2019, this at 31 seats put them two seats behind Benny Gantz' liberal Blue and White Alliance, who won 33 seats which incidentally was 2 fewer than in April 2019. The Joint List, an alliance of socialist and Arab minority interest parties in Israel, achieved a good third place with 12 seats, which will give it decisive influence in the formation of the next government, which will likely result in the ousting of Benjamin Netanyahu especially as he is currently awaiting trial on corruption charges.
There was relatively little change for the other political parties in Israel, although coalitions are now the norm in Israeli politics due to the 3.25% threshold for representation and the increasing fragmentation of Israeli politics. Shas and United Torah Judaism stayed on the same seat totals as before; the hard-right Yamina alliance gained 2 seats for a total of 7, and the Democratic Coalition (a green progressive coalition of Meretz, the Green Movement and the Israel Democratic Party) increased their seat total by 1 to 5. The Labor-Gesher alliance also stayed at 6 seats in comparison to the performance of their component parties; in April 2019, however, Labor won 6 seats without being in an alliance with another Israeli party. It confirms my analytical point of the April 2019 Israeli election that Labor has been supplanted by the Blue and White Alliance, and similar parties around the world will in the long-term be replaced as the old industrial base of wealthier countries slowly declines into insignificance.
The most significant story was the bleeding of the Likud coalition's votes to Yisraeli Beiteinu, ostensibly a party representing Russian speakers in Israel but in reality a hardline Zionist party similar to Shas despite trying to be secular in some quarters, which won a total of 9 seats and which is trying to force a government of national unity between the two largest parties, who between them now have 55.8% of the Knesset seats. This is very unlikely to happen until Mr Netanyahu steps down from, or is removed from, his position as Prime Minister and from his position of leader of Likud; corruption trials of politicians usually take several months to conclude. However, a liberal coalition led by the Blue and White Alliance (in conjunction with Joint List, Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union) would be 5 seats short of a majority and would not be able to govern in practice any more than a Likud coalition could.
Israel could possibly face a second snap election-which would be its third Knesset election in just a single calendar year.
In fact, although Likud only lost 4 seats compared to April 2019, this at 31 seats put them two seats behind Benny Gantz' liberal Blue and White Alliance, who won 33 seats which incidentally was 2 fewer than in April 2019. The Joint List, an alliance of socialist and Arab minority interest parties in Israel, achieved a good third place with 12 seats, which will give it decisive influence in the formation of the next government, which will likely result in the ousting of Benjamin Netanyahu especially as he is currently awaiting trial on corruption charges.
There was relatively little change for the other political parties in Israel, although coalitions are now the norm in Israeli politics due to the 3.25% threshold for representation and the increasing fragmentation of Israeli politics. Shas and United Torah Judaism stayed on the same seat totals as before; the hard-right Yamina alliance gained 2 seats for a total of 7, and the Democratic Coalition (a green progressive coalition of Meretz, the Green Movement and the Israel Democratic Party) increased their seat total by 1 to 5. The Labor-Gesher alliance also stayed at 6 seats in comparison to the performance of their component parties; in April 2019, however, Labor won 6 seats without being in an alliance with another Israeli party. It confirms my analytical point of the April 2019 Israeli election that Labor has been supplanted by the Blue and White Alliance, and similar parties around the world will in the long-term be replaced as the old industrial base of wealthier countries slowly declines into insignificance.
The most significant story was the bleeding of the Likud coalition's votes to Yisraeli Beiteinu, ostensibly a party representing Russian speakers in Israel but in reality a hardline Zionist party similar to Shas despite trying to be secular in some quarters, which won a total of 9 seats and which is trying to force a government of national unity between the two largest parties, who between them now have 55.8% of the Knesset seats. This is very unlikely to happen until Mr Netanyahu steps down from, or is removed from, his position as Prime Minister and from his position of leader of Likud; corruption trials of politicians usually take several months to conclude. However, a liberal coalition led by the Blue and White Alliance (in conjunction with Joint List, Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union) would be 5 seats short of a majority and would not be able to govern in practice any more than a Likud coalition could.
Israel could possibly face a second snap election-which would be its third Knesset election in just a single calendar year.
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