My anlaysis of British local by-elections from 26/9/19
Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 26 September 2019 were as follows:
Crawley BC, Tilgate: Conservative 741 (57.0%, +10.0%), Labour 396 (30.5%, -7.3%), Liberal Democrats 82 (6.3%), Green 75 (5.8%, -9.4%), Justice Party 5 (0.4%).
Ipswich BC, Alexandra: Labour 734 (50.2%, -3.5%), Liberal Democrats 287 (19.6%, +10.7%), Conservative 278 (19.0%, -0.7%), Green 164 (11.2%, -6.0%). All changes are since May 2019.
Luton UA, Icknield: Labour 585 (36.7%, -5.6%), Conservative 563 (35.4%, -8.8%), Liberal Democrats 403 (25.6%, +12.1%), Green 37 (2.3%). Labour gain from Conservative.
Rochford DC, Sweyne Park & Grange: Conservative 541 (49.7%, +19.6%), Liberal Democrats 407 (37.4%,-0.5%), Green 140 (12.9%). Conservative gain from Rochford Residents; all changes are since 2016. [Rochford Residents did not stand].
West Sussex CC, Three Bridges: Conservative 1102 (51.7%, +6.7%), Labour 628 (29.5%, -10.5%), Liberal Democrats 257 (12.1%, +6.4%), Green 136 (6.4%, +2.3%), Justice Party 9 (0.4%). [UKIP did not stand]
Despite the mess the Conservatives have landed Britain in and the five-week suspension of Parliament by Boris Johnson being ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom (a decision a majority of people agree with, according to pollsters), the Conservatives performed surprisingly well this week, especially in the new town of Crawley.
The 2017 county council elections were a bad time for Labour, almost as bad as 2009 in many cases, and a good time for the Conservatives who benefitted strongly from UKIP's collapse. Therefore at first it would seem logical that Labour would capture the Three Bridges division in Crawley, which is normally marginal at election time. However, the demographics of new towns are not particularly favourable to Labour under Jeremy Corbyn, even though their Leave vote was usually average in the 2016 EU referendum, such as in the cases of Bedford and Watford. As their education levels are not particularly high (in fact only 15% of Tilgate's population has a degree, one of the lowest in the South East), the Liberal Democrats did not poll that well in either the Three Bridges by-election or the Tilgate by-election in Crawley; the new ward of Tilgate is covered in the relatively new Three Bridges division. However, the rest of Crawley will prove less favourable to the Conservatives in a snap general election, so Crawley as a constituency remains one to watch.
In Alexandra, however, the Liberal Democrats leapfrogged the Conservatives for second place, and Alexandra, covering the centre of Suffolk's county town of Ipswich, has one of the highest proportions of private renters (40.7%) of wards outside London which also do not contain a university campus. This has been helpful to both the Green Party and to Labour even though its level of social housing is low at 14.2%. Labour's indecision about Brexit as well as internal divisions cost it voters to the Liberal Democrats in this by-election.
Meanwhile in Icknield, Luton, a mainly owner occupier ward, a Liberal Democrat surge meant a Labour gain from the Conservatives, even though it was one of only two wards in Luton (the other being Bramingham) to elect Conservative councillors in May, at a time when notionally more than 1800 Conservative council seats were lost, especially south of the Watford Gap. In all fairness, Labour's vote share also decreased, but as with the Birmingham Northfield by-election of 1982 (it had relatively similar results and which was also a narrow Labour gain from Conservative) held after the boost of popularity to Margaret Thatcher's government after the end of the Falklands War was wearing off, it took place at a time when Boris Johnson is losing support left right and centre even amongst normally loyal Conservative voters and when voters are tiring of Brexit chaos. Lastly in Rochford, the lack of a Rochford Residents' Association candidate clearly boosted the Conservatives, whilst the Greens did well despite the Liberal Democrats' high levels of support in the ward.
With Parliament now having returned, a general election should be called ASAP, and for a date in November 2019 (it is no longer possible to have a general election for October 2019, as John Bercow stated earlier today).
Crawley BC, Tilgate: Conservative 741 (57.0%, +10.0%), Labour 396 (30.5%, -7.3%), Liberal Democrats 82 (6.3%), Green 75 (5.8%, -9.4%), Justice Party 5 (0.4%).
Ipswich BC, Alexandra: Labour 734 (50.2%, -3.5%), Liberal Democrats 287 (19.6%, +10.7%), Conservative 278 (19.0%, -0.7%), Green 164 (11.2%, -6.0%). All changes are since May 2019.
Luton UA, Icknield: Labour 585 (36.7%, -5.6%), Conservative 563 (35.4%, -8.8%), Liberal Democrats 403 (25.6%, +12.1%), Green 37 (2.3%). Labour gain from Conservative.
Rochford DC, Sweyne Park & Grange: Conservative 541 (49.7%, +19.6%), Liberal Democrats 407 (37.4%,-0.5%), Green 140 (12.9%). Conservative gain from Rochford Residents; all changes are since 2016. [Rochford Residents did not stand].
West Sussex CC, Three Bridges: Conservative 1102 (51.7%, +6.7%), Labour 628 (29.5%, -10.5%), Liberal Democrats 257 (12.1%, +6.4%), Green 136 (6.4%, +2.3%), Justice Party 9 (0.4%). [UKIP did not stand]
Despite the mess the Conservatives have landed Britain in and the five-week suspension of Parliament by Boris Johnson being ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom (a decision a majority of people agree with, according to pollsters), the Conservatives performed surprisingly well this week, especially in the new town of Crawley.
The 2017 county council elections were a bad time for Labour, almost as bad as 2009 in many cases, and a good time for the Conservatives who benefitted strongly from UKIP's collapse. Therefore at first it would seem logical that Labour would capture the Three Bridges division in Crawley, which is normally marginal at election time. However, the demographics of new towns are not particularly favourable to Labour under Jeremy Corbyn, even though their Leave vote was usually average in the 2016 EU referendum, such as in the cases of Bedford and Watford. As their education levels are not particularly high (in fact only 15% of Tilgate's population has a degree, one of the lowest in the South East), the Liberal Democrats did not poll that well in either the Three Bridges by-election or the Tilgate by-election in Crawley; the new ward of Tilgate is covered in the relatively new Three Bridges division. However, the rest of Crawley will prove less favourable to the Conservatives in a snap general election, so Crawley as a constituency remains one to watch.
In Alexandra, however, the Liberal Democrats leapfrogged the Conservatives for second place, and Alexandra, covering the centre of Suffolk's county town of Ipswich, has one of the highest proportions of private renters (40.7%) of wards outside London which also do not contain a university campus. This has been helpful to both the Green Party and to Labour even though its level of social housing is low at 14.2%. Labour's indecision about Brexit as well as internal divisions cost it voters to the Liberal Democrats in this by-election.
Meanwhile in Icknield, Luton, a mainly owner occupier ward, a Liberal Democrat surge meant a Labour gain from the Conservatives, even though it was one of only two wards in Luton (the other being Bramingham) to elect Conservative councillors in May, at a time when notionally more than 1800 Conservative council seats were lost, especially south of the Watford Gap. In all fairness, Labour's vote share also decreased, but as with the Birmingham Northfield by-election of 1982 (it had relatively similar results and which was also a narrow Labour gain from Conservative) held after the boost of popularity to Margaret Thatcher's government after the end of the Falklands War was wearing off, it took place at a time when Boris Johnson is losing support left right and centre even amongst normally loyal Conservative voters and when voters are tiring of Brexit chaos. Lastly in Rochford, the lack of a Rochford Residents' Association candidate clearly boosted the Conservatives, whilst the Greens did well despite the Liberal Democrats' high levels of support in the ward.
With Parliament now having returned, a general election should be called ASAP, and for a date in November 2019 (it is no longer possible to have a general election for October 2019, as John Bercow stated earlier today).
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