My analysis of local by-elections from 19/9/19 and why it is important the British public have the final say on EU membership
Readers, the results from British local by-elections held on 19 September 2019 were as follows:
Canterbury DC, Chestfield: Conservative 728 (46.0%, -6.5%), Liberal Democrats 562 (35.5%, +19.0%), Labour 140 (8.9%, -6.8%), Independent (Egerton) 84 (5.3%), Green 68 (4.3%, -10.9%). [UKIP did not stand]
Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Fulham Broadway: Labour 1097 (44.2%, -11.6%), Liberal Democrats 755 (30.4%, +21.8%), Conservative 628 (25.3%, -10.2%).
Liverpool MBC, Old Swan: Labour 1153 (55.4%, -17.0%), Liberal 293 (14.1%, +6.4%), Liberal Democrats 272 (13.1%, +7.1%), Old Swan Against the Cuts 138 (6.6%, +3.6%), Green 130 (6.2%, -1.6%), Conservative 96 (4.6%, +1.4%).
North Lanarkshire UA, Thornewood (1st preferences): Labour 1362 (44.3%, -6.0%), SNP 1202 (39.1%, +0.4%), Conservative 296 (9.6%, -1.5%), Liberal Democrats 148 (5.5%), Green 46 (1.5%). Labour hold at stage 4.
Somerset West & Taunton DC, Vivary: Liberal Democrats 648 (55.3%, +21.0%), Conservative 307 (26.2%, -1.9%), Independent (Rudram) 155 (13.2%), Labour 32 (2.7%, -9.9%), Green 30 (2.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Wiltshire UA, Ethandune: Conservative 778 (57.0%, -14.8%), Liberal Democrats 587 (43.0%, +14.8%).
The Hammersmith & Fulham result in particular shows how much the Conservatives have to lose at the next general election particularly in Greater London, due to well-educated city and suburban voters turning to the Liberal Democrats in their hundreds of thousands. It was particularly striking since Hammersmith & Fulham features Lab-Con contests only, with other parties rarely achieving a runner up position anywhere during local elections due to the high income inequality levels in Hammersmith & Fulham. The issue of Brexit is likely to lead to some surprise Liberal Democrat gains at the next general election, likely to be called for late November 2019.
The Liberal Democrats' capture of Vivary, the first by-election in the new authority of Somerset West & Taunton that came into existence four months ago, was expected due to the resigning Conservative councillor having a notable personal vote in the ward, and the fact the Liberal Democrats already had all the other seats in the town of Taunton itself. The Conservatives are still doing badly by any standards-the only reason they have any lead in voter intention polls is because Jeremy Corbyn is just as disorganised and divisive a leader as Boris Johnson is, even though more Conservative MPs have left the Conservative Party than Labour MPs have left the Labour Party.
Labour also fared badly in this week's by-elections, except in Thornewood in a tight race against the SNP. In Vivary they were heavily squeezed by the Liberal Democrats and in Liverpool Luciana Berger's defection to the Liberal Democrats (Old Swan ward is in her Liverpool Wavertree constituency) proved damaging to Labour even though it was a local election; surprisingly it was the Liberals (who, in Liverpool, are in reality the Steve Radford group) who finished a distant second instead of the Greens or Liberal Democrats. Even in Liverpool, there is a limit to how low the Conservative vote can go, showing a rare increase of 1.4% in this by-election although they once again finished last.
Even in more rural areas, the Conservatives are in trouble; they held both the Chestfield by-election and the Ethandune by-election (both well-heeled villages) but narrowly in each case.
At their conference earlier, Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson announced that if she were elected as Prime Minister (not a realistic prospect on current opinion polling, of course) she would simply revoke Article 50 on day one in office.
This is morally and ethically wrong because it fails to take into account the concerns of Leave voters, many of whom felt left behind by the EU as well as British society, and also because it draws a parallel with Boris Johnson's no-deal Brexit plans in that it leaves real voters without a voice in the decision; so much has changed in the three years since the EU membership referendum took place and the number of "Bregretters" (those who voted Leave but would now vote Remain for one reason or another; this effect was noticeable in the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election for example) is growing and can easily within a second referendum change the result to Remain, if the Remain side listens to the concerns of coastal communities and former industrial areas in particular.
It is the people who voted on the EU membership referendum on 23 June 2016 who must decide what the final outcome is; a democratic solution, with all plausible outcomes related to Britain's EU membership possible, is what is necessary for a resolution and an end to the ongoing chaos.
Canterbury DC, Chestfield: Conservative 728 (46.0%, -6.5%), Liberal Democrats 562 (35.5%, +19.0%), Labour 140 (8.9%, -6.8%), Independent (Egerton) 84 (5.3%), Green 68 (4.3%, -10.9%). [UKIP did not stand]
Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Fulham Broadway: Labour 1097 (44.2%, -11.6%), Liberal Democrats 755 (30.4%, +21.8%), Conservative 628 (25.3%, -10.2%).
Liverpool MBC, Old Swan: Labour 1153 (55.4%, -17.0%), Liberal 293 (14.1%, +6.4%), Liberal Democrats 272 (13.1%, +7.1%), Old Swan Against the Cuts 138 (6.6%, +3.6%), Green 130 (6.2%, -1.6%), Conservative 96 (4.6%, +1.4%).
North Lanarkshire UA, Thornewood (1st preferences): Labour 1362 (44.3%, -6.0%), SNP 1202 (39.1%, +0.4%), Conservative 296 (9.6%, -1.5%), Liberal Democrats 148 (5.5%), Green 46 (1.5%). Labour hold at stage 4.
Somerset West & Taunton DC, Vivary: Liberal Democrats 648 (55.3%, +21.0%), Conservative 307 (26.2%, -1.9%), Independent (Rudram) 155 (13.2%), Labour 32 (2.7%, -9.9%), Green 30 (2.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Wiltshire UA, Ethandune: Conservative 778 (57.0%, -14.8%), Liberal Democrats 587 (43.0%, +14.8%).
The Hammersmith & Fulham result in particular shows how much the Conservatives have to lose at the next general election particularly in Greater London, due to well-educated city and suburban voters turning to the Liberal Democrats in their hundreds of thousands. It was particularly striking since Hammersmith & Fulham features Lab-Con contests only, with other parties rarely achieving a runner up position anywhere during local elections due to the high income inequality levels in Hammersmith & Fulham. The issue of Brexit is likely to lead to some surprise Liberal Democrat gains at the next general election, likely to be called for late November 2019.
The Liberal Democrats' capture of Vivary, the first by-election in the new authority of Somerset West & Taunton that came into existence four months ago, was expected due to the resigning Conservative councillor having a notable personal vote in the ward, and the fact the Liberal Democrats already had all the other seats in the town of Taunton itself. The Conservatives are still doing badly by any standards-the only reason they have any lead in voter intention polls is because Jeremy Corbyn is just as disorganised and divisive a leader as Boris Johnson is, even though more Conservative MPs have left the Conservative Party than Labour MPs have left the Labour Party.
Labour also fared badly in this week's by-elections, except in Thornewood in a tight race against the SNP. In Vivary they were heavily squeezed by the Liberal Democrats and in Liverpool Luciana Berger's defection to the Liberal Democrats (Old Swan ward is in her Liverpool Wavertree constituency) proved damaging to Labour even though it was a local election; surprisingly it was the Liberals (who, in Liverpool, are in reality the Steve Radford group) who finished a distant second instead of the Greens or Liberal Democrats. Even in Liverpool, there is a limit to how low the Conservative vote can go, showing a rare increase of 1.4% in this by-election although they once again finished last.
Even in more rural areas, the Conservatives are in trouble; they held both the Chestfield by-election and the Ethandune by-election (both well-heeled villages) but narrowly in each case.
At their conference earlier, Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson announced that if she were elected as Prime Minister (not a realistic prospect on current opinion polling, of course) she would simply revoke Article 50 on day one in office.
This is morally and ethically wrong because it fails to take into account the concerns of Leave voters, many of whom felt left behind by the EU as well as British society, and also because it draws a parallel with Boris Johnson's no-deal Brexit plans in that it leaves real voters without a voice in the decision; so much has changed in the three years since the EU membership referendum took place and the number of "Bregretters" (those who voted Leave but would now vote Remain for one reason or another; this effect was noticeable in the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election for example) is growing and can easily within a second referendum change the result to Remain, if the Remain side listens to the concerns of coastal communities and former industrial areas in particular.
It is the people who voted on the EU membership referendum on 23 June 2016 who must decide what the final outcome is; a democratic solution, with all plausible outcomes related to Britain's EU membership possible, is what is necessary for a resolution and an end to the ongoing chaos.
Good Stuff Alan
ReplyDeleteAgree with Alan and the previous comment, but the Greens should not be losing ground anywhere. Now an XR activist, I have been pleasantly surprised how many motorists give us the thumbs up, when our 'swarming' (blocking traffic for 3 minutes) is just a blasted nuisance. Does climate breakdown only play with younger voters maybe? And we have to stop positioning ourselves as 'Tories not welcome'.
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