My analysis of British local by-elections from 5/9/19

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 5 September 2019 were as follows:

Coventry MBC, Wainbody: Conservative 1560 (53.2%, +1.8%), Liberal Democrats 634 (21.6%, +16.0%), Labour 544 (18.6%, -16.4%), Brexit Party 193 (6.6%). All changes are since May 2019 [Greens and UKIP did not stand]

Eden DC, Penrith South: Conservative 222 (46.3%, +20.7%), Independent (Quinn)193 (39.4%), Labour 46 (9.6%, -1.9%), Putting Cumbria First 23 (4.8%). Conservative gain from Independent.

Hull UA, St Andrews & Docklands: Labour 837 (45.6%, -20.2%), Liberal Democrats 805 (43.9%, +30.7%), Conservative 193 (10.5%, -4.1%). All changes are since May 2019. [Greens and For Britain did not stand]

At first, given the current political crisis in Britain, it seems surprising that the Conservatives managed to increase their vote share in the middle-class Wainbody ward, especially with the Liberal Democrats performing well in wards of this type and the Brexit Party bettering UKIP's 2019 performance. However, the Conservatives have generally been making marginal recoveries from their May 2019 drubbing at a local level, not that this will help them at a parliamentary level when the now inevitable early general election is called.

Their gain in Penrith South can only be attributed to the Independent candidate not having a strong enough personal profile-Eden is the most sparsely populated district in England and only Penrith has a population above 10,000; Independent candidates at a local level perform best in rural areas, especially isolated ones. Conservatives usually win if the Independent does not have enough personal support, as clearly was the case here.

The Liberal Democrats' 25.4% swing against Labour in Hull is attributable to local contests in Kingston-Upon-Hull being only between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, with the Conservatives further being squeezed by tactical voting although this can only stretch so far. However, being one of the poorest wards in England with one of the highest levels of unemployment in the country and with over a quarter of its population being in routine work, the ward of St Andrews & Docklands has no realistic chance of being anything but a Labour seat.

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