My analysis of British local by-elections from 12/9/19

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 12 September 2019 were as follows:

Rushmoor BC, St Mark's: Liberal Democrats 687 (54.7%, +16.5%), Conservative 450 (35.9%,+2.2%), Labour 118 (9.4%, -6.1%). All changes are since May 2019 [British Union and Sovereignty Party did not stand]

Rutland UA, Ryhall & Casterton: Conservative 357 (56.3%), Liberal Democrats 156 (24.6%), Green 121 (19.1%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time]

Shropshire UA, Bishop's Castle: Liberal Democrats 838 (71.4%, -2.2%), Conservative 229 (19.5%,-1.4%), Labour 107 (9.1%). [Green Party did not stand]

South Northamptonshire DC, Middleton Cheney: Liberal Democrats 384 (44.3%, +10.2%), Conservative 345 (39.3%, -2.3%), Green 89 (10.3%, +6.2%), Labour 59 (5.7%, -14.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Wellingborough BC, Finedon: Conservative 547 (52.1%, -10.1%), Independent (Harper) 227 (21.6%), Green 134 (12.8%), Labour 76 (7.3%, -12.1%), Liberal Democrats 62 (6.1%, -1.0%). [UKIP did not stand]

Rural local by-elections often provide the most interesting outcomes despite rural areas being safer for a particular party (or candidate) than urban areas. This certainly proved to be the case this week with four of the five local by-elections taking place in villages.

The Greens did particularly well in Northamptonshire, in fact securing their best ever performance in the soon to be abolished borough of Wellingborough and achieving a good performance in the likewise in Middleton Cheney, located in the likewise to be abolished South Northamptonshire district, which are set to be absorbed into the planned unitary authorities of East Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire respectively in 8 months' time from now. In Wellingborough a challenge to the Conservatives by Finedon parish council leader Laurence Harper surprisingly failed quite badly, despite the Conservatives losing support left, right and centre at present. It was Labour who mainly felt the tactical vote squeeze this week, as shown particularly in Middleton Cheney. The Greens' excellent result in Rutland reflects their high potential in rural areas, especially those with some distinctive character and tradition far from the big cities, such as in the counties of Devon and Suffolk.

The absence of the nationalist right proved not to be helpful to the Conservatives in St Mark's, Farnborough, as the Liberal Democrats achieved a further 7.2% swing in their favour even though Rushmoor otherwise appears to be favourable to Boris Johnson's style of Conservatism, being the home of a major barracks (in Aldershot) and Farnborough Airport which is located in St Mark's ward.







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