On recent German elections: looking ost, but not in the traditional sense
The two Landtag (state) elections in Brandenburg and Saxony, both in former East Germany, produced a sensational backlash against the normally dominant parties of CDU, SPD, and Die Linke.
All three of these parties endured substantial losses in both of these Landtag elections. DIe Linke, despite not being part of the governing coalition in either state, endured the heaviest losses both in terms of percentage points and seats. Die Linke failed to win a single direct mandate (single member constituency) in Brandenburg, coming closest in Potsdam II by finishing second by 760 votes, and in Saxony they only held Leipzig II in terms of direct mandates. Overall, Die Linke lost 7 seats in Brandenburg, dropping from third to fifth place, their worst ever placing in any Landtag election in former East Germany where their predecessors were once the only permitted political party. In Saxony they fared better but they still lost almost half their seats and more of their vote (8.4%) than either the CDU (7.3%) or already weak SPD (4.6%) there. In Brandenburg, the normally dominant SPD finished first but lost 5 seats whilst the CDU were pushed into third place and lost 6 seats, which was rather as expected. Both state elections were clearly a backlash against the old-fashioned establishment parties in Brandenburg and Saxony.
At the same time, the Eurosceptic right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to strong second positions in both Landtags, finishing only 2,7% behind the SPD in Brandenburg and just 4.6% behind the ever-dominant CDU in Saxony, although this is not surprising given that Saxony was the only Land where in 2017 AfD won any direct mandates (3) in the Bundestag. They nearly doubled their vote share in each case, and in fact Die Linke was the main victim of this surge.
Given Die Linke's origins as a hardline socialist party that evolved from a communist party, this seems very surprising at first because of AfD's Eurosceptic and nationalist outlook. But there is a reason for it.
The first common link between Die Linke voters and AfD voters, especially those living outside cities, is "ostalgia"-a longing for a return to the past, even though history has made it clear that the East German state was unviable from the start. The second common link is the strong Euroscepticism within both parties, albeit for very different reasons. The substantial wealth and employment gaps between the former east and west, with eastern Lander having unemployment rates nearly treble that of western Lander, is the key drive. The gaps between urban and rural areas, just as in Britain, are widening fast and Brandenburg's election proved to be a striking example of this. Although the SPD finished first they were clearly dominant only in the western half of Brandenburg, dominated by commuter towns to Berlin and the university city of Potsdam, whereas AfD dominated the less built-up areas in the east of Brandenburg. The CDU once again finished first in Saxony but again it was mainly the cities where they dominated; in outlying rural areas and small industrial towns the AfD overall proved to be the victors, running them close in many of those direct mandates which they could not win.
The Greens continued to enjoy the fruits of their European election success, increasing their seat total to 10 in Brandenburg, finishing ahead of Die Linke, and winning their first ever direct mandate in Brandenburg, Potsdam I. In Saxony, they won their first ever three direct mandates at Land level: Dresden V and Leipzig IV and V, and 12 seats in total, only 2 fewer than Die Linke and 2 more than the SPD. Historically, they have struggled in the former eastern Lander compared to their excellent levels of support in Baden-Wurttenberg and Berlin. Some things did not change however: Potsdam I and Leipzig V were also the only direct mandates in their respective Land where the AfD finished fifth on the Erststimmen (first, or constituency vote, as opposed to the Zweistimmen, or second/list vote). They are still comparatively struggling in rural areas which will be damaged more severely by man-made climate change than urban areas will; university towns also provided the Greens' best results in both votes once again.
The FDP found themselves disappointed despite optimistic projections from opinion polls. They polled only 4.1% and 4.5% in Brandenburg and Saxony, failing to pass the 5% threshold for representation, and many of their younger voters are now voting Green instead of FDP, who like the Greens have been comparatively weak in the eastern Lander. They have effectively been displaced by the Greens and their classical liberal ideology is of no help whatsoever to combatting the critical issue of man-made climate change and related issues.
The Freie Wahler (free voters, politically equivalent to residents' associations in the United Kingdom) had a surprisingly good election in Brandenburg, passing the 5% threshold by 647 votes giving them 5 seats; this proved vital since they only one direct mandate, Bamim II, finishing a poor fourth in Teltow-Flaming III. They were rather lucky since their voter base is demographically very similar to that of the AfD's, albeit more localist and mainly in large towns (not cities). This also explains why they failed to win any seats in Saxony, where the AfD is strongest in Germany, despite more than doubling their vote compared to 2015.
The Tierschutzpartei (Animal Welfare Party) polled surprisingly well in Brandenburg with 2.6% of the vote despite having no realistic chance of winning and despite the Greens having their best performance in Brandenburg; green-minded voters are generally very conscientious about animal rights. They fared less well in Saxony with 1.5%, finishing behind the satirical Die PARTEI there. The Pirate Party effectively dropped out of sight in both Lander, falling to 0.7% in Brandenburg and a derisory 0.3% in Saxony.
Governance of both Lander will be an awkward affair, to say the least. No major German political party will form a coalition with the AfD, and as the FDP failed to win any seats in either Lander they are not available as coalition partners. A grand coalition will not have enough seats in either Brandenburg or Saxony. In both cases, the coalition will almost certainly involve the Greens, which should not only result in a push towards a more sustainable society but also help eastern Lander catch up with western Lander at long last.
All three of these parties endured substantial losses in both of these Landtag elections. DIe Linke, despite not being part of the governing coalition in either state, endured the heaviest losses both in terms of percentage points and seats. Die Linke failed to win a single direct mandate (single member constituency) in Brandenburg, coming closest in Potsdam II by finishing second by 760 votes, and in Saxony they only held Leipzig II in terms of direct mandates. Overall, Die Linke lost 7 seats in Brandenburg, dropping from third to fifth place, their worst ever placing in any Landtag election in former East Germany where their predecessors were once the only permitted political party. In Saxony they fared better but they still lost almost half their seats and more of their vote (8.4%) than either the CDU (7.3%) or already weak SPD (4.6%) there. In Brandenburg, the normally dominant SPD finished first but lost 5 seats whilst the CDU were pushed into third place and lost 6 seats, which was rather as expected. Both state elections were clearly a backlash against the old-fashioned establishment parties in Brandenburg and Saxony.
At the same time, the Eurosceptic right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to strong second positions in both Landtags, finishing only 2,7% behind the SPD in Brandenburg and just 4.6% behind the ever-dominant CDU in Saxony, although this is not surprising given that Saxony was the only Land where in 2017 AfD won any direct mandates (3) in the Bundestag. They nearly doubled their vote share in each case, and in fact Die Linke was the main victim of this surge.
Given Die Linke's origins as a hardline socialist party that evolved from a communist party, this seems very surprising at first because of AfD's Eurosceptic and nationalist outlook. But there is a reason for it.
The first common link between Die Linke voters and AfD voters, especially those living outside cities, is "ostalgia"-a longing for a return to the past, even though history has made it clear that the East German state was unviable from the start. The second common link is the strong Euroscepticism within both parties, albeit for very different reasons. The substantial wealth and employment gaps between the former east and west, with eastern Lander having unemployment rates nearly treble that of western Lander, is the key drive. The gaps between urban and rural areas, just as in Britain, are widening fast and Brandenburg's election proved to be a striking example of this. Although the SPD finished first they were clearly dominant only in the western half of Brandenburg, dominated by commuter towns to Berlin and the university city of Potsdam, whereas AfD dominated the less built-up areas in the east of Brandenburg. The CDU once again finished first in Saxony but again it was mainly the cities where they dominated; in outlying rural areas and small industrial towns the AfD overall proved to be the victors, running them close in many of those direct mandates which they could not win.
The Greens continued to enjoy the fruits of their European election success, increasing their seat total to 10 in Brandenburg, finishing ahead of Die Linke, and winning their first ever direct mandate in Brandenburg, Potsdam I. In Saxony, they won their first ever three direct mandates at Land level: Dresden V and Leipzig IV and V, and 12 seats in total, only 2 fewer than Die Linke and 2 more than the SPD. Historically, they have struggled in the former eastern Lander compared to their excellent levels of support in Baden-Wurttenberg and Berlin. Some things did not change however: Potsdam I and Leipzig V were also the only direct mandates in their respective Land where the AfD finished fifth on the Erststimmen (first, or constituency vote, as opposed to the Zweistimmen, or second/list vote). They are still comparatively struggling in rural areas which will be damaged more severely by man-made climate change than urban areas will; university towns also provided the Greens' best results in both votes once again.
The FDP found themselves disappointed despite optimistic projections from opinion polls. They polled only 4.1% and 4.5% in Brandenburg and Saxony, failing to pass the 5% threshold for representation, and many of their younger voters are now voting Green instead of FDP, who like the Greens have been comparatively weak in the eastern Lander. They have effectively been displaced by the Greens and their classical liberal ideology is of no help whatsoever to combatting the critical issue of man-made climate change and related issues.
The Freie Wahler (free voters, politically equivalent to residents' associations in the United Kingdom) had a surprisingly good election in Brandenburg, passing the 5% threshold by 647 votes giving them 5 seats; this proved vital since they only one direct mandate, Bamim II, finishing a poor fourth in Teltow-Flaming III. They were rather lucky since their voter base is demographically very similar to that of the AfD's, albeit more localist and mainly in large towns (not cities). This also explains why they failed to win any seats in Saxony, where the AfD is strongest in Germany, despite more than doubling their vote compared to 2015.
The Tierschutzpartei (Animal Welfare Party) polled surprisingly well in Brandenburg with 2.6% of the vote despite having no realistic chance of winning and despite the Greens having their best performance in Brandenburg; green-minded voters are generally very conscientious about animal rights. They fared less well in Saxony with 1.5%, finishing behind the satirical Die PARTEI there. The Pirate Party effectively dropped out of sight in both Lander, falling to 0.7% in Brandenburg and a derisory 0.3% in Saxony.
Governance of both Lander will be an awkward affair, to say the least. No major German political party will form a coalition with the AfD, and as the FDP failed to win any seats in either Lander they are not available as coalition partners. A grand coalition will not have enough seats in either Brandenburg or Saxony. In both cases, the coalition will almost certainly involve the Greens, which should not only result in a push towards a more sustainable society but also help eastern Lander catch up with western Lander at long last.
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