The Austrian legislative election of 2019: shifting back to sensibility (somewhat)
The snap Austrian legislative election of 2019, which was forced by the collapse of the deal between the OVP (Austrian People's Party) and nationalist FPO (Freedom Party of Austria) following the aftermath of the Ibiza affair, resulted in heavy losses for the FPO, junior coalition partners of Sebastian Kurz, still the youngest Chancellor in Austrian history.
The FPO lost as many as 20 seats, bringing them down to 31, although this was not as low as their debacle in 2002 when they won just 18 seats after European Union sanctions were briefly enacted against Austria due to their hard right influence on the first OVP-FPO coalition, which lasted from 1999-2002. However, it meant its vote share decreased by 9.8% compared to 2017 meaning they finished third behind the SPO (Socialist Party of Austria), whose seat total of 40 and vote share of 21.2% are their lowest ever. The two-party dominance of Austria is fading, even though there has not so far been an election where the combined OVP and SPO vote has not exceeded 50%; 50.81% in 2013 remains the lowest OVP-SPO combined vote. This year it was 58.7%; from 1945 to 1986 that combined total always exceeded 90%.
Unsurprisingly, the OVP gained significantly from the FPO's losses, increasing its vote share by 6.1%; this was mainly however in the more rural Lander of Austria. In Vienna its vote share only increased by 3% and Vienna contained the only electoral districts where the OVP vote actually decreased, which were also the districts the Greens and NEOS polled best in. The OVP increased its seat total to 71, but it will still likely have to enter another grand coalition with the SPO, which is usually what happens in Austria.
The Austrian Greens came back in style, winning 13.8% of the vote and 26 seats, their best ever result. They would have won more seats had the splinter list JETZT (running under the name Pilz List in 2013) rejoined their colleagues after the resignation of Peter Pilz instead of continuing when they are just another strand of Green politics (they split from the Greens and have few differences from them apart from personality differences); the Pilz list polled 1.9% and lost all 8 seats but it is clear they cost the Greens at least three extra seats in the process, since their only remotely respectable vote shares came where the Greens polled best. The Greens topped the poll in ten districts, all in Vienna and mainly the districts closest to the National Council building.
The rise of Austria's liberal party, NEOS, similar to the Free Democratic Party of Germany, is particularly notable in the long term and is winning over affluent urbane OVP voters, which accounts for the minority of OVP vote share decreases. Like the Greens, NEOS polled best in Vienna and Tyrol even though the alpine Land of Tyrol is more inclined towards traditional green politics rather than metropolitan green politics. With 8.1%, NEOS polled 15 seats, its best result so far.
Even though the former youth branch of the Greens is still allying with the Communist Party of Austria, the KPO continued to lose support, particularly in Vienna where it lost nearly half of what little support it had. This happened partly due to Change (WANDL) winning over many radical left voters which would have voted for the KPO. WANDL flopped across Austria, finishing bottom in most Land and like the KPO not polling even 1% anywhere. In Vienna it had the added indignity of finishing behind the Beer Party (BIER), which like similar parties is essentially a joke party. The "anti-party" GILT (Every Vote Counts) largely disappeared from the Austrian radar, finishing bottom in the only two Lander it submitted lists for, Voralberg and Tyrol. The other three parties which submitted only one list each (BZO Carinthia, Socialist Left, and the Christian Party of Austria) proved to be an irrelevance, with the Christian Party of Austria, standing only in Styria, receiving the wooden spoon with just 258 votes, 167 lower than 2017. This is however better than the EU Exit Party of Austria, which failed to submit any lists at all this election due to an alliance with the Neutral Free Austria Federation failing to submit a complete list after one of their lists of signatures was reportedly stolen.
UPDATE: Postal votes now fully counted, hence the correction of errata.
The FPO lost as many as 20 seats, bringing them down to 31, although this was not as low as their debacle in 2002 when they won just 18 seats after European Union sanctions were briefly enacted against Austria due to their hard right influence on the first OVP-FPO coalition, which lasted from 1999-2002. However, it meant its vote share decreased by 9.8% compared to 2017 meaning they finished third behind the SPO (Socialist Party of Austria), whose seat total of 40 and vote share of 21.2% are their lowest ever. The two-party dominance of Austria is fading, even though there has not so far been an election where the combined OVP and SPO vote has not exceeded 50%; 50.81% in 2013 remains the lowest OVP-SPO combined vote. This year it was 58.7%; from 1945 to 1986 that combined total always exceeded 90%.
Unsurprisingly, the OVP gained significantly from the FPO's losses, increasing its vote share by 6.1%; this was mainly however in the more rural Lander of Austria. In Vienna its vote share only increased by 3% and Vienna contained the only electoral districts where the OVP vote actually decreased, which were also the districts the Greens and NEOS polled best in. The OVP increased its seat total to 71, but it will still likely have to enter another grand coalition with the SPO, which is usually what happens in Austria.
The Austrian Greens came back in style, winning 13.8% of the vote and 26 seats, their best ever result. They would have won more seats had the splinter list JETZT (running under the name Pilz List in 2013) rejoined their colleagues after the resignation of Peter Pilz instead of continuing when they are just another strand of Green politics (they split from the Greens and have few differences from them apart from personality differences); the Pilz list polled 1.9% and lost all 8 seats but it is clear they cost the Greens at least three extra seats in the process, since their only remotely respectable vote shares came where the Greens polled best. The Greens topped the poll in ten districts, all in Vienna and mainly the districts closest to the National Council building.
The rise of Austria's liberal party, NEOS, similar to the Free Democratic Party of Germany, is particularly notable in the long term and is winning over affluent urbane OVP voters, which accounts for the minority of OVP vote share decreases. Like the Greens, NEOS polled best in Vienna and Tyrol even though the alpine Land of Tyrol is more inclined towards traditional green politics rather than metropolitan green politics. With 8.1%, NEOS polled 15 seats, its best result so far.
Even though the former youth branch of the Greens is still allying with the Communist Party of Austria, the KPO continued to lose support, particularly in Vienna where it lost nearly half of what little support it had. This happened partly due to Change (WANDL) winning over many radical left voters which would have voted for the KPO. WANDL flopped across Austria, finishing bottom in most Land and like the KPO not polling even 1% anywhere. In Vienna it had the added indignity of finishing behind the Beer Party (BIER), which like similar parties is essentially a joke party. The "anti-party" GILT (Every Vote Counts) largely disappeared from the Austrian radar, finishing bottom in the only two Lander it submitted lists for, Voralberg and Tyrol. The other three parties which submitted only one list each (BZO Carinthia, Socialist Left, and the Christian Party of Austria) proved to be an irrelevance, with the Christian Party of Austria, standing only in Styria, receiving the wooden spoon with just 258 votes, 167 lower than 2017. This is however better than the EU Exit Party of Austria, which failed to submit any lists at all this election due to an alliance with the Neutral Free Austria Federation failing to submit a complete list after one of their lists of signatures was reportedly stolen.
UPDATE: Postal votes now fully counted, hence the correction of errata.
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