The British general election of 2024, part 2-the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Reform UK

Arguably at the British general election of 2024, just as big a winner as the Labour Party were the smaller parties, especially the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party, and Reform UK, the successor to the Brexit Party. Between them these 3 parties alone won as many as 81 seats and 32.6% of the vote, almost equal to Labour's vote share and 8.7% more than the outgoing Conservative government polled. Had some form of proportional representation existed for UK parliamentary elections, they would have won more than 200 seats between them (assuming election by regions using the Additional Member System with a 5% threshold by region, which is what the Scottish Parliament and Senedd have used since their inception although the Senedd will switch to a different PR system from 2026).

Not only did the Liberal Democrats have their best ever election result since they were formed in 1988 from a merger of the Liberals and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), their results were the best for any third party in British politics since 1929 when the Liberals won 62 seats (the Liberal Democrats won 62 seats in 2005 as well but in a larger House of Commons than that which existed in 1929) and they did so despite polling only 12.2% of the vote, an increase of 0.6% on 2019. The innovative and unusual campaigning style of its leader, Sir Ed Davey, combined with strong tactical voting in constituencies where the Liberal Democrats had acquired or maintained second place to the Conservatives or the SNP, however distant in 2019, accounted for the notional 62 gains across Britain. Notable amongst their gains were Chichester, held by outgoing Education Secretary Gillian Keegan and which on a record (for the Liberal Democrats at a general election against the Conservatives) 31% swing elected its first Liberal/Liberal Democrat MP in a century, West Dorset which elected its first non-Conservative MP since its creation as long ago as 1885, Woking which also elected its first ever non-Conservative MP with the Liberal Democrats' Will Forster, a former Mayor of Woking, capturing it on his 4th attempt, Witney, once the seat of David Cameron (now Lord Cameron of Witney) when he was Prime Minister, Cheltenham, held by outgoing Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Melksham & Devizes, contested by outgoing Science Secretary (and very briefly Education Secretary) Michelle Donelan after her previous seat, Chippenham, was heavily redrawn in boundary changes, and Stratford-on-Avon, which had since its recreation in 1950 been continuously represented by a succession of Conservative ministers including Nadhim Zahawi, who stood down at this election; it was also the only Liberal Democrat gain in the entire Midlands area (counting both East and West Midlands) which had not been won at a by-election.

However, when they were (notionally) the main challengers to Labour, they slipped back and lost significant votes particularly to the Greens; in Sheffield Hallam they endured a 7% swing against them and it was also one of a minority of metropolitan constituencies where the Labour vote significantly increased although the incumbency bonus effect applied here in Labour's favour. They also fell back substantially in Bermondsey & Old Southwark and Cambridge, which they held as recently as a decade ago, and finished 3rd behind the Greens in Manchester Withington despite the Conservative vote share in the latter, which they held from 1931 to 1987, dropping to its lowest ever in that seat, 5.5%, and the lowest in Greater Manchester this year. Only in Burnley, where former MP Gordon Birtwistle was standing, did they manage any noticeable net swing against Labour in a seat gained by Labour or held by Labour. Their gains were also unsurprisingly very concentrated in the south of England; of the 56 Liberal Democrat gains in England (they gained Brecon, Radnor & Cwm-Tawe in Wales and notionally 4 in Scotland), only 6 (Cheadle, Harrogate & Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Stratford-on-Avon, notionally Westmorland & Lonsdale which in fact recorded the largest Liberal Democrat majority in Britain this year, and North Shropshire which they had gained in a 2021 by-election) were in regions north of the Wash and the Bristol Channel, and they did not finish second in, let alone come close to winning, any seat in the North East and only in Hinckley & Bosworth in the East Midlands did they even finish second. Also, as an indirect result of this concentration, the number of lost Liberal Democrat deposits increased by more than 50% compared to the last election.

The Green Party also had their best ever result at this election, obtaining 6.4% of the vote and 4 seats, holding Brighton Pavilion easily despite the incumbent, Caroline Lucas, standing down and winning Bristol Central (formerly Bristol West) from Labour, North Herefordshire from the Conservatives, and the new seat of Waveney Valley which notionally would have had a Conservative majority exceeding 20,000 had it existed in 2019. The sewage scandal, along with extreme weather events increasing across the world, helped the Green Party achieve their best ever support, although interestingly it sharply increased more in safe Labour seats than in safe Conservative seats, even when the latter had a stronger Green local government base than a Lib Dem base, and some of that increase was arguably also due to the Greens taking a pro-Palestinian stance on the Gaza issue with Labour not doing so. 

However, their voter base even in areas where they had made significant gains proved to be as vulnerable to tactical voting as any other-of the 56 Liberal Democrat gains in England, the Green Party saved their deposit in only 5 (Cheltenham, Dorking & Horley, Eastleigh, Frome & East Somerset, and Glastonbury & Somerton, the latter 2 of which had areas of longstanding and significant Green Party support). Conversely, in none of the 3 Green gains, nor Brighton Pavilion, did Liberal Democrat candidates save their deposit. Also, of the seats where the Green Party finished second, all were Labour seats aside from the Speaker's seat of Chorley; they did not finish second in either Isle of Wight seat despite having achieved good results in the previous, united Isle of Wight constituency.

Reform UK undoubtedly made the biggest impact of any party other than Conservative and Labour at this election, for their heavy splitting of the Conservative vote (upper case and lower case "c") proved decisive in many of the Conservatives' historic losses, not just in "Red Wall" seats but also in "Blue Wall" seats. In particular, like UKIP in 2015, they attracted elderly and/or poorly educated voters with working-class backgrounds more than most, especially in coastal areas far from major cities. They won 5 seats on 14.3% of the vote, 4 of which were or notionally would have been won by Labour in 1997 (with Boston & Skegness being a near-miss and Ashfield and its predecessors having been, until 2019, been won by Labour in every general election since 1922), although even in Clacton with Nigel Farage standing they did not achieve 50% of the vote anywhere. Furthermore, turnout still decreased significantly in the seats Reform UK gained and had a realistic chance of gaining although the turnout decrease was below average (it decreased by 3.3% in Clacton; the average turnout decrease this year was 7.6%) Interestingly enough, this means they now have more MPs than councillors (they only have 2, both in Derby; ironically neither Derby seat produced a particularly strong Reform UK result). Even from a standing start in Conservative-held seats (the Brexit Party, Reform UK's predecessor, did not stand in any Conservative-held seat in 2019) they managed to push many Conservative incumbents into third place, such as Nigel Mills in Amber Valley and Lia Nici in the new Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes seat and in more than half the seats notionally lost by the Conservatives the Reform vote was greater than the majority the Conservatives lost by; although in some cases Reform UK won over anti-Conservative votes that in their absence would have gone to other parties; a notable case where Reform UK's candidature might have actually resulted in a Conservative hold is Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland which the Conservatives' Sir Simon Clarke narrowly lost to Labour where no Reform UK candidate stood (the continuity SDP did stand there, however, and may have taken some Labour votes in addition to moderate Conservative votes and a not insignificant portion of votes that would have gone to Reform UK); had Reform UK stood they would likely have absorbed many votes that went to Labour, especially given that in recent years Conservative support has held up better in Teeside than most.  Reform UK's campaign was however, like UKIP's in 2015, marred by many candidates being accused of racism and Islamophobia, to the point where as many as 6 Reform UK candidates were disendorsed after nominations closed, and their candidates in Erewash and West Ham & Beckton, Liam Booth-Isherwood and Georgie David, publicly repudiated Reform UK after nominations closed over reports of widespread racism and sexism.

It must also be noted that Reform UK achieved >30% of the vote in 3 safe Labour seats with a traditional working-class demographic, namely Hull East, held by Labour continuously since 1935 and formerly represented by John Prescott (who recently retired from the House of Lords), and Makerfield, which along with its predecessor Ince has been continuously represented by Labour since 1906, making it the longest-held Labour seat in Britain, and Barnsley South, which counting all its closest predecessors can trace an unbroken line of Labour representation dating back to 1918. Both of these, in addition to Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes which its former Labour MP, Melanie Onn, recaptured saw Labour majorities over Reform of less than 15%, meaning that Labour, like the Conservatives, also has to watch out for any subsequent Reform UK surge. Had Ms Onn not tried to recapture her old seat, Reform UK may have possibly gained it instead of Labour.

Coming in part 3-Workers Party, continuity SDP, Independents, and the rest.