Predictions for British local council elections of 2020

With the next set of British local council elections now only three months away, it is time to make a prediction, especially with UKIP and the Brexit Party disappearing from the psephological equation now that the UK has actually left the European Union.

 This year,a new unitary authority, Buckinghamshire (a merger of all district councils in Buckinghamshire, with the new wards actually based on the current county council divisions but with 3 councillors each), will be elected, and due to other council mergers and switches to full council elections from by thirds elections, fewer councils will have elections this year than in 2016. 

 Electorally, the Conservatives are having a "honeymoon period" under Boris Johnson's tenure-but it will likely not last long when the true consequences of Brexit become known.

 (NB: Only councils certain to change control this year, or that have a reasonable possibility of changing control this year, are listed):

Labour lose to NOC (No Overall Control): Amber Valley, Bristol, Bury, Kirklees, Rossendale, Sheffield. 

 Labour hold: Cambridge, Oxford, Rotherham, Trafford.

 Conservative gain from NOC: Dudley, Pendle, Peterborough.

 Conservative gain from Labour: Crawley, Plymouth.

 Conservative lose to NOC: Adur, Craven, Gosport, Reigate, Worthing.

 Conservative hold: Gloucester, North East Lincolnshire, Solihull, Walsall.

 Liberal Democrat gain from NOC: St Albans.

 NOC hold: Basingstoke & Deane (Conservatives largest party), Bolton (Conservatives largest party), Burnley (Labour largest party), Maidstone (Liberal Democrats largest party), North Hertfordshire (Conservatives largest party), Nuneaton & Bedworth (Conservatives largest party), Stockport (Liberal Democrats largest party), Welwyn Hatfield (Conservatives largest party), Wirral (Labour largest party), Woking (Liberal Democrats largest party).





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