My analysis of local by-elections from 30/1/20 and 6/2/20

Because of the six month rule now in effect, it has been a slow last fortnight for local by-elections in Britain. The results from the most recent three local by-elections are as follows:

 (30/01/20)

Suffolk CC, Newmarket & Red Lodge: Conservative 893 (50.3%, -0.2%), Liberal Democrats 315 (17.7%, +8.8%), West Suffolk Independents 248 (14.0%, +2.5%), Labour 198 (11.1%, -4.5%), Green 123 (6.9%). 

 West Suffolk DC, Newmarket North: Conservative 309 (42.4%, +8.5%), Liberal Democrats 130 (17.9%), West Suffolk Independents 118 (16.2%, -26.5%), Labour 73 (10.0%, -13.2%), Independent (Stennett) 54 (7.4%), Green 44 (6.5%).
(06/02/20)

 Warrington UA, Burtonwood & Winwick: Labour 753 (58.9%, -3.1%), Conservative 469 (36.7%, +13.9%), Independent (Nicholls) 56 (4.4%). [Liberal Democrats did not stand]

 The Conservatives' "honeymoon period" continued to make its impact in these local elections, which accounts for the collapse of the West Suffolk Independents vote in the Newmarket North (most of their voters are "small c" localist conservatives) by-election and their equally poor performance in the county council by-election in Newmarket & Red Lodge. The Liberal Democrats' runner-up position in both by-elections came mainly be default, especially since Newmarket is one of the weaker towns in Suffolk for the Green Party, who otherwise have been making excellent advances in rural and coastal Suffolk electorally as climate change becomes a more pressing issue, especially since East Anglia is one of the areas of Britain most at risk from rising sea levels.

 Meanwhile in Warrington, the lack of a Liberal Democrat candidate was the main factor in the Conservatives' sharp vote share increase, since the Liberal Democrats remain a bigger threat to the Conservatives than Labour, and will remain so for some time even after Labour elects its new leader and deputy leader in April; the frontrunners in both races are still Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner respectively at present. The context must also be considered: Warrington's last council election was in 2016, when Labour were not doing quite as badly as they were in 2019. 

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