Local election predictions 2025

 This year's local elections in England are particularly notable since due to upcoming local government reorganisation, these elections will, if said reorganisation proceeds as planned, will be the last ever county council elections under the current two-tier system of local government, as introduced by the Local Government Act 1972. 

Since 2007, many former county councils have already been replaced by one or more unitary authorities, and the remaining two-tier councils of Cambridgeshire, Derbyshire, Devon, East Sussex, Essex, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Staffordshire, Suffolk, Surrey, Warwickshire, West Sussex and Worcestershire are set to follow suit by 2028, and some extant unitary authorities will likely be absorbed in the process. In fact, county council elections in East Sussex, Essex, Hampshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Surrey and West Sussex that were due to take place this year have been delayed to give time for such reorganisation, as have elections on the Isle of Wight even though this has been a unitary authority since 1996.

For those county councils and unitary authorities, as well as the Metropolitan Borough of Doncaster (the only metropolitan borough whose elections, which have been full council elections every 4 years since 2017, coincide with county council elections), which are still having elections, key highlights include Reform UK fielding more candidates than either Labour or the Conservatives, and the Green Party fielding a record number of candidates. Reform and Labour are currently neck-and-neck in the polls, with the Conservatives lagging in 3rd place despite not being more than 5 points behind Labour. In 2021, the Conservatives, riding on a post-COVID wave under Boris Johnson, won or retained clear control of most county councils and unitarised counties; this time, they are expected to face a drubbing, although Labour is likewise despite having fewer seats to lose in competitive counties like Derbyshire and Staffordshire, home to many traditional key marginal constituencies such as Amber Valley and Tamworth.

All that said, and with turnouts in elections across Britain dropping almost to record lows, these are my predictions for this year's local elections (changes are from May 2021):

Conservative hold:

Buckinghamshire, Staffordshire, West Northamptonshire, Wiltshire, Worcestershire.

Conservative lose to NOC (No Overall Control):

Cornwall, Derbyshire, Devon, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, North Northamptonshire, Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, Shropshire, Warwickshire.

Reform UK gain from Conservative:

Lincolnshire.

Liberal Democrat gain from NOC:

Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire.

Labour lose to NOC:

Doncaster.

NOC hold:

County Durham.


And my predictions for this year's mayoral (metropolitan and regional) elections, two of which (Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire) hold their inaugural election this year:

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough: Paul Bristow (Conservative) gains from Labour.

Doncaster: Ros Jones (Labour) holds for Labour.

Greater Lincolnshire: Andrea Jenkyns (Reform UK) wins.

Hull & East Yorkshire: Anne Handley (Conservative) wins.

North Tyneside: Karen Clark (Labour) holds for Labour.

West of England: Helen Goodwin (Labour) holds for Labour.

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