My analysis of British local by-elections from 27/2/20 (and one from 20/2/20)
Readers, the results of recent British local by-elections (one from 20 February and seven from 27 February) were as follows:
(20/2/20)
Middlesbrough UA, Coulby Newham: Conservative 679 (49.0%, -5.5%), Labour 279 (19.9%, -25.6%), Liberal Democrats 259 (18.4%), Independent (Lowther) 90 (6.6%), Independent (Morrish) 88 (6.3%).
(27/2/20)
Blaby DC, Millfield: Labour 228 (52.2%, -1.0%), Conservative 188 (43.0%, -3.8%), Green 21 (4.8%).
Cambridgeshire CC, Duxford: Liberal Democrats 1607 (59.6%, +26.3%), Conservative 1090 (40.4%, -14.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Labour and UKIP did not stand]
Cheshire East UA, Crewe South: Labour 854 (54.1%, -6.7%), Conservative 566 (35.8%, +9.8%), Green 69 (4.4%), Independent (Cartlidge) 57 (3.6%), Independent (Silvester) 34 (2.2%). [Liberal Democrats did not stand]
Hillingdon LBC, Hillingdon East: Conservative 1430 (68.8%, +9.6%), Labour 488 (23.5%, -13.0%), Liberal Democrats 86 (4.1%), Green 59 (2.8%), UKIP 16 (0.8%). [Democrats & Veterans did not stand]
Manchester MBC, Clayton & Openshaw: Independent (Dobson) 1191 (47.9%, +3.4%), Labour 1083 (43.6%, -1.4%), Conservative 102 (4.1%, +0.6%), Liberal Democrats 57 (2.3%, -1.0%), Green 51 (2.1%, -1.6%). Independent gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2019.
South Cambridgeshire DC, Whittlesford: Conservative 526 (55.2%, -8.1%), Liberal Democrats 427 (44.8%, +30.3%). [Labour and Greens did not stand]
Wrexham UA, Gwersyllt North: Plaid Cymru 189 (36.6%), Labour 87 (16.8%, -10.7%), Conservative 78 (15.1%, -5.0%), Independent (Davies) 51 (9.9%), Independent (McCann) 43 (8.3%), Liberal Democrats 41 (7.9%), Independent (Hay) 19 (3.7%), Green 9 (1.7%). Plaid Cymru gain from Independent.
A real yerelash (Russian for "mixture of miscellaneous things") of an election week this has been. Most of the by-elections followed the demographic pattern of the 2019 general election-working-class wards swung to the Conservatives, with the key exception of Millfield in Leicestershire, and middle-class wards swung to the Liberal Democrats. In Hillingdon East, it is not surprising that UKIP got as few as 16 votes given that Britain left the European Union four weeks ago, meaning UKIP has lost any sense of purpose.
The by-elections in Coulby Newham and Clayton & Openshaw in particular show that despite claims by Labour leadership candidate Rebecca Long-Bailey about Labour needing to connect with its old northern base, localist independents will be tough to displace, not only at council level but to a lesser extent parliamentary level as well. In major cities such as Manchester, independent candidates rarely get a look-in but Ken Dobson, who formerly contested Clayton & Openshaw (and its predecessor, Ancoats & Clayton) as a Liberal candidate, finally made his localist credentials count after eight previous attempts in the last decade, squeezing out the other parties in the process. This breakthrough is critical in Manchester politics given that Labour has almost total control of Manchester, with Didsbury West being the only Manchester ward not to have any Labour councillors at present. Meanwhile, two independent candidates in Coulby Newham undermined the Labour vote leading to an easy Conservative hold, with a Liberal Democrat intervention making no difference to the outcome there.
The town of Wrexham does not have a high proportion of Welsh speakers and is not known for strong support of Plaid Cymru, so their convincing win of Gwersyllt North, a ward they did not even contest in the Welsh local council elections of 2017, just to the north of Wrexham itself is very surprising especially as the Conservatives hoped to capitalise on their historic win of the Wrexham constituency last year. Even though Labour retained second place this by-election represents their worst ever result in a ward that before 2017 consistently voted Labour. As for the independent candidates, which are abundant in Welsh local elections, it proved to be this time a case of "too many cooks spoil the broth" since none of them achieved more than 10% of the vote apiece.
(20/2/20)
Middlesbrough UA, Coulby Newham: Conservative 679 (49.0%, -5.5%), Labour 279 (19.9%, -25.6%), Liberal Democrats 259 (18.4%), Independent (Lowther) 90 (6.6%), Independent (Morrish) 88 (6.3%).
(27/2/20)
Blaby DC, Millfield: Labour 228 (52.2%, -1.0%), Conservative 188 (43.0%, -3.8%), Green 21 (4.8%).
Cambridgeshire CC, Duxford: Liberal Democrats 1607 (59.6%, +26.3%), Conservative 1090 (40.4%, -14.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Labour and UKIP did not stand]
Cheshire East UA, Crewe South: Labour 854 (54.1%, -6.7%), Conservative 566 (35.8%, +9.8%), Green 69 (4.4%), Independent (Cartlidge) 57 (3.6%), Independent (Silvester) 34 (2.2%). [Liberal Democrats did not stand]
Hillingdon LBC, Hillingdon East: Conservative 1430 (68.8%, +9.6%), Labour 488 (23.5%, -13.0%), Liberal Democrats 86 (4.1%), Green 59 (2.8%), UKIP 16 (0.8%). [Democrats & Veterans did not stand]
Manchester MBC, Clayton & Openshaw: Independent (Dobson) 1191 (47.9%, +3.4%), Labour 1083 (43.6%, -1.4%), Conservative 102 (4.1%, +0.6%), Liberal Democrats 57 (2.3%, -1.0%), Green 51 (2.1%, -1.6%). Independent gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2019.
South Cambridgeshire DC, Whittlesford: Conservative 526 (55.2%, -8.1%), Liberal Democrats 427 (44.8%, +30.3%). [Labour and Greens did not stand]
Wrexham UA, Gwersyllt North: Plaid Cymru 189 (36.6%), Labour 87 (16.8%, -10.7%), Conservative 78 (15.1%, -5.0%), Independent (Davies) 51 (9.9%), Independent (McCann) 43 (8.3%), Liberal Democrats 41 (7.9%), Independent (Hay) 19 (3.7%), Green 9 (1.7%). Plaid Cymru gain from Independent.
A real yerelash (Russian for "mixture of miscellaneous things") of an election week this has been. Most of the by-elections followed the demographic pattern of the 2019 general election-working-class wards swung to the Conservatives, with the key exception of Millfield in Leicestershire, and middle-class wards swung to the Liberal Democrats. In Hillingdon East, it is not surprising that UKIP got as few as 16 votes given that Britain left the European Union four weeks ago, meaning UKIP has lost any sense of purpose.
The by-elections in Coulby Newham and Clayton & Openshaw in particular show that despite claims by Labour leadership candidate Rebecca Long-Bailey about Labour needing to connect with its old northern base, localist independents will be tough to displace, not only at council level but to a lesser extent parliamentary level as well. In major cities such as Manchester, independent candidates rarely get a look-in but Ken Dobson, who formerly contested Clayton & Openshaw (and its predecessor, Ancoats & Clayton) as a Liberal candidate, finally made his localist credentials count after eight previous attempts in the last decade, squeezing out the other parties in the process. This breakthrough is critical in Manchester politics given that Labour has almost total control of Manchester, with Didsbury West being the only Manchester ward not to have any Labour councillors at present. Meanwhile, two independent candidates in Coulby Newham undermined the Labour vote leading to an easy Conservative hold, with a Liberal Democrat intervention making no difference to the outcome there.
The town of Wrexham does not have a high proportion of Welsh speakers and is not known for strong support of Plaid Cymru, so their convincing win of Gwersyllt North, a ward they did not even contest in the Welsh local council elections of 2017, just to the north of Wrexham itself is very surprising especially as the Conservatives hoped to capitalise on their historic win of the Wrexham constituency last year. Even though Labour retained second place this by-election represents their worst ever result in a ward that before 2017 consistently voted Labour. As for the independent candidates, which are abundant in Welsh local elections, it proved to be this time a case of "too many cooks spoil the broth" since none of them achieved more than 10% of the vote apiece.
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