Election predictions of 2026 - English local elections

This year, local elections are more unpredictable in Britain than ever before, especially with the the 29 district and borough councils whose elections were initially going to be postponed owing to local government reorganisation in those areas (which will convert all remaining 2-tier counties into 1 or more unitary authorities, thus ending the 2-tier system across the UK entirely), now in fact holding these elections on 7th May as planned; the postponements were rescinded in February following a legal challenge by Reform UK. Nevertheless, with local government reorganisation continuing its course with 2 new unitaries emerging as a result of said reorganisation (East and West Surrey) holding elections next month, this will be the final election for many authorities in the UK.

The election map will also become more colourful with not only the Greens and Reform set to win record numbers of seats, but also other minor parties emerging, mainly at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. Despite the Liberal Democrats usually polling in 5th place in opinion polls released so far this year, their vote share in said polls usually represents an improvement on the 12.2% they polled in the 2024 general election, and once again they stand to benefit well from tactical voting. In Greater London, the Greens are set to top the poll overall even taking in the disparities between all 32 London boroughs, whereas Reform UK are still set to sweep much of rural and ex-industrial England despite exposures of many of their candidates for blatantly racist Tweets inter alia, which has caused their poll lead to significantly diminish compared to last year. 

My predictions are therefore as follows (in relation to councils that can actually change hands this year, hence why Broxbourne, for example, is not listed since not enough council seats are up for election in Broxbourne this year for the Conservatives to lose control of it; comparisons are with 2021, 2022 or 2024 as appropriate, especially in light of the hundreds of council defections that have taken place in the last 2 years alone), taking not only opinion polls but also analysing the potential in the wards with a realistic chance of changing hands.  Psephology still requires a human mind like mine to perform and these predictions cannot be accurately made by AI!

Reform gain from Conservative: Bexley, Essex, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Norfolk, Walsall. 

Reform gain from Labour: Barnsley, Sandwell, Thurrock, Wakefield.

Conservative lose to NOC (No Overall Control): Bromley, East Surrey (notional), Fareham, Hampshire, Harlow, Havering, Solihull, Suffolk, West Sussex.

Conservative hold: Harrow, Hillingdon, Kensington & Chelsea.

Liberal Democrat gain from NOC: Brentwood, Gosport, Huntingdonshire, Stockport, Three Rivers, West Surrey (notional).

Liberal Democrat hold: Cheltenham, Hull, Kingston-upon-Thames, Richmond-upon-Thames, St Albans, South Cambridgeshire, Sutton, Tunbridge Wells, Wokingham.

Labour lose to NOC: Adur, Barnet, Blackburn with Darwen, Birmingham, Bradford, Brent, Bury, Calderdale, Cambridge, Camden, Cannock Chase, Coventry, Ealing, Enfield, Exeter, Gateshead, Greenwich, Haringey, Hartlepool, Hounslow, Hyndburn, Kirklees, Leeds, Merton, Milton Keynes, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Newham, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Preston, Rushmoor, St Helens, Southampton, South Tyneside, Southwark, Sunderland, Swindon, Tameside, Tamworth, Worthing.

Labour hold: Hammersmith & Fulham, Knowsley, Lincoln, Reading, Redbridge, Rochdale, Sefton, Trafford, Waltham Forest, Wandsworth, Westminster, Wolverhampton.

Green gain from Labour: Hackney, Hastings, Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham, Norwich.

NOC hold: Basildon, Bolton, Burnley, Cherwell, Colchester, Croydon, Dudley, East Sussex, Epping Forest, Hart, Havant, Isle of Wight, North East Lincolnshire, Oldham, Oxford, Pendle, Peterborough, Portsmouth, Rochford, Rugby, Sheffield, Southend-on-Sea, Welwyn Hatfield, West Lancashire, West Oxfordshire.

Other: Aspire hold Tower Hamlets.


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