My analysis of British local by-elections from 13/2/20 and on the recent Cabinet reshuffle
"Oh I see. You're just a bunch of yes men. You were making all the wrong moves and you were too gutless to tell me!"
-C. Montgomery Burns commenting on his bankruptcy, "The Simpsons".
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from yesterday were as follows:
Derbyshire CC, Whaley Bridge: Labour 1851 (50.4%, +22.8%), Conservative 1048 (28.5%,-6.1%), Liberal Democrats 721 (19.6%, -14.0%), Paddy Bann 52 (1.4%). Labour gain from Conservative. [Green Party did not stand]
East Staffordshire BC, Yoxall: Conservative 431 (78.5%, -9.0%), Labour 118 (21.5%, -9.0%).
Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Kenilworth: Conservative 776 (49.0%, +2.4%), Labour 655 (41.3%, -12.1%), Liberal Democrats 104 (6.6%), Green 50 (3.2%). Conservative gain from Labour.
Huntingdonshire DC, St Ives East: Conservative 558 (46.5%,+0.9%), Independent (Pope) 429 (35.8%), Liberal Democrats 109 (9.1%, -15.7%), Labour 103 (8.6%, -20.9%).
Thanet DC, Cliffsend & Pegwell: Conservative 516 (50.9%, +14.2%), Green 290 (28.5%, +10.4%), Labour 109 (10.7%, -4.4%), Independent (Birchall) 101 (9.9%, -5.8%). [For Britain Movement did not stand]
Waverley DC, Milford: Independent (Gale) 452 (50.6%), Conservative 328 (36.7%, +18.2%), Independent (Egan) 113 (12.7%). Independent gain from other Independent. [Liberal Democrats and UKIP did not stand]
Labour's first win in the Whaley Bridge division of Derbyshire County Council since 1981 is clearly attributable to recently unseated Labour MP Ruth George being the candidate, and personal recognition is crucial in inherently marginal small towns like Whaley Bridge, which at district council level in High Peak was split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats in 2019, and came close to electing a Green councillor that year. It also accounts for the considerable Liberal Democrat drop in the seat despite its former county councillor, David Lomax, being the Liberal Democrat candidate in that by-election. Arguably High Peak is trending towards Labour in the long-term, but this is mainly in the area around Glossop close to Greater Manchester.
This was Labour's only good result this week in terms of local by-elections, however, with the 9% swing to Labour in Yoxall, Staffordshire attributable to abstention from Conservative voters. They lost a seat to the Conservatives in the key marginal ward of Borehamwood Kenilworth, located in the London commuter belt, a sign that the "honeymoon" of Boris Johnson's government is still in session. However, it was the intervention of a localist independent, Philip Pope, in St Ives East that caused Labour's collapse there, and also knocked back the Liberal Democrats considerably. Meanwhile in Thanet, the Green Party becoming the main challengers to the Conservatives and Labour at local level in several wards of Thanet aided their good result in Cliffsend & Pegwell and it explains why Labour declined further.
The latest Cabinet reshuffle, which saw not only the resignation of Sajid Javid from the post of Chancellor of the Exchequer but also the departure of Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey (all three of these Conservative MPs stood in the Conservative leadership contest last year that saw Boris Johnson become Prime Minister) is a clear sign of how bad UK governance will be over the course of this next Parliament. Boris Johnson, and his appointed adviser Dominic Cummings, are ensuring the Cabinet contains only those unswervingly loyal to Boris Johnson and contains no MPs who have defied the Conservative whip on more than a few minor occasions at most. The new appointments are particularly worrying: Suella Braverman (nee Fernandes; Conservative MP for Fareham since 2015) the new Attorney General, spoke of wanting "to take back power from courts" which in practice means undermining them and increasing the power of the already overpowered executive (in comparison to the legislative and judicial branches); George Eustice (Conservative MP for Camborne & Redruth since 2010), the new Environment Secretary, has consistently voted against environmentally friendly legislation and in favour of environmentally damaging legislation, and the spending ideas of Rishi Sunak (Conservative MP for Richmond [Yorks] since 2015), the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, claimed that a post-Brexit deal with the EU was unnecessary, despite overwhelming economic evidence to the contrary given how much of Britain's exports go to European Union countries, not to mention how obviously geographically close Britain is to continental Europe compared to the USA. Filling a Cabinet with only "yes men/women" is a recipe for disaster.
-C. Montgomery Burns commenting on his bankruptcy, "The Simpsons".
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from yesterday were as follows:
Derbyshire CC, Whaley Bridge: Labour 1851 (50.4%, +22.8%), Conservative 1048 (28.5%,-6.1%), Liberal Democrats 721 (19.6%, -14.0%), Paddy Bann 52 (1.4%). Labour gain from Conservative. [Green Party did not stand]
East Staffordshire BC, Yoxall: Conservative 431 (78.5%, -9.0%), Labour 118 (21.5%, -9.0%).
Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Kenilworth: Conservative 776 (49.0%, +2.4%), Labour 655 (41.3%, -12.1%), Liberal Democrats 104 (6.6%), Green 50 (3.2%). Conservative gain from Labour.
Huntingdonshire DC, St Ives East: Conservative 558 (46.5%,+0.9%), Independent (Pope) 429 (35.8%), Liberal Democrats 109 (9.1%, -15.7%), Labour 103 (8.6%, -20.9%).
Thanet DC, Cliffsend & Pegwell: Conservative 516 (50.9%, +14.2%), Green 290 (28.5%, +10.4%), Labour 109 (10.7%, -4.4%), Independent (Birchall) 101 (9.9%, -5.8%). [For Britain Movement did not stand]
Waverley DC, Milford: Independent (Gale) 452 (50.6%), Conservative 328 (36.7%, +18.2%), Independent (Egan) 113 (12.7%). Independent gain from other Independent. [Liberal Democrats and UKIP did not stand]
Labour's first win in the Whaley Bridge division of Derbyshire County Council since 1981 is clearly attributable to recently unseated Labour MP Ruth George being the candidate, and personal recognition is crucial in inherently marginal small towns like Whaley Bridge, which at district council level in High Peak was split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats in 2019, and came close to electing a Green councillor that year. It also accounts for the considerable Liberal Democrat drop in the seat despite its former county councillor, David Lomax, being the Liberal Democrat candidate in that by-election. Arguably High Peak is trending towards Labour in the long-term, but this is mainly in the area around Glossop close to Greater Manchester.
This was Labour's only good result this week in terms of local by-elections, however, with the 9% swing to Labour in Yoxall, Staffordshire attributable to abstention from Conservative voters. They lost a seat to the Conservatives in the key marginal ward of Borehamwood Kenilworth, located in the London commuter belt, a sign that the "honeymoon" of Boris Johnson's government is still in session. However, it was the intervention of a localist independent, Philip Pope, in St Ives East that caused Labour's collapse there, and also knocked back the Liberal Democrats considerably. Meanwhile in Thanet, the Green Party becoming the main challengers to the Conservatives and Labour at local level in several wards of Thanet aided their good result in Cliffsend & Pegwell and it explains why Labour declined further.
The latest Cabinet reshuffle, which saw not only the resignation of Sajid Javid from the post of Chancellor of the Exchequer but also the departure of Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey (all three of these Conservative MPs stood in the Conservative leadership contest last year that saw Boris Johnson become Prime Minister) is a clear sign of how bad UK governance will be over the course of this next Parliament. Boris Johnson, and his appointed adviser Dominic Cummings, are ensuring the Cabinet contains only those unswervingly loyal to Boris Johnson and contains no MPs who have defied the Conservative whip on more than a few minor occasions at most. The new appointments are particularly worrying: Suella Braverman (nee Fernandes; Conservative MP for Fareham since 2015) the new Attorney General, spoke of wanting "to take back power from courts" which in practice means undermining them and increasing the power of the already overpowered executive (in comparison to the legislative and judicial branches); George Eustice (Conservative MP for Camborne & Redruth since 2010), the new Environment Secretary, has consistently voted against environmentally friendly legislation and in favour of environmentally damaging legislation, and the spending ideas of Rishi Sunak (Conservative MP for Richmond [Yorks] since 2015), the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, claimed that a post-Brexit deal with the EU was unnecessary, despite overwhelming economic evidence to the contrary given how much of Britain's exports go to European Union countries, not to mention how obviously geographically close Britain is to continental Europe compared to the USA. Filling a Cabinet with only "yes men/women" is a recipe for disaster.
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