The Peruvian election of 2020: Fujimorists flushed out
The Peruvian parliamentary election of 2020, called after President Martin Vizcarra dissolved the Assembly of the Republic slightly early, became notable for the historic fragmentation of said Assembly (Peru's parliament) in political terms.
Only one party, Popular Action (a liberal-conservative party) polled more than 10% of the votes cast, and even then its vote share was as low as 10.31%. Even in particularly fragmented systems using list-PR the party in pole position generally polls at least 20% of the votes cast; the vote shares obtained by parties in this Peruvian election make the Czech Republic look psephologically stable. This psephological fragmentation occurred despite the fact that there is a 5% electoral threshold in Peru, without any exemptions despite it being open-list representation.
The once-dominant Popular Force, the main vehicle for the neoconservative and clientelist Fujimorist ideology, was decimated in this election, dropping from 1st place and a clear majority to sixth place and just 15 seats, compared to the 73 it won in 2016. With such a drastic loss of support combined with its leader, Keiko Fujimori (daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, after whom the ideology is named) currently detained and unable to run for office, this means an effective end to Fujimorism in Peru, especially since it dropped to only 7.24% of the vote. By comparison, Ms Fujimori came close to winning the 2011 and 2016 Peruvian Presidential elections in the second round, and Popular Force and its predecessors always had significant support even after Mr Fujimori's crimes had been exposed. Another "establishment" party of Peru, the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA), which was the main social-democratic party in Peru and the governing party under the tenures of the late Alan Garcia (who committed suicide last year to avoid arrest on corruption charges in relation to the Odebrecht scandal; another former Peruvian President, Alejandro Toledo, was arrested shortly afterward over bribery allegations in the same scandal), was wiped out completely after polling a miserable 2.73%, well below the 5% threshold. Since the end of Mr Garcia's final tenure as President of Peru, APRA has endured the same long decline of most social-democratic/old socialist parties around the world, and like Popular Force it will likely never rise to prominence again. The other socialist party in Peru, the Broad Front, dropped from 20 seats to just 9, showing that old-fashioned socialism in general is on the wane in Peru like everywhere else.
Four new parties entered the Assembly: the Agricultrual People's Front (an indigenous land reform movement), Podemos Peru (a populist conservative party), the Purple Party (a centrist neoliberal party), and the Union for Peru (representing the "ethnocacerist" movement, which seeks a proletarian dictatorship by indigenous communities in Peru). The entrance of all these parties, as well as Popular Action's newfound support, represents a strong desire for anti-corruption and anti-nepotist reforms in Peru, as well as a regaining of power by indigenous communities in Peru (not just Quechua and Aymara speakers). Incidentally, even the party receiving the electoral wooden spoon, Contigo, still managed 1.07% of the vote; in Europe the wooden spoon holder is lucky if they poll over 0.01% in an election.
The Odebrecht scandal emanating from Brazil has undoubtedly been the strongest contemporary factor in the shake up of the Peruvian Assembly, in spite of the long-term factors cited above. Turnout nevertheless remained unimpressive by normal democratic standards, for it only narrowly exceeded 55% in this Peruvian election. Whether the proposed reforms desired by the electorate, as well as the new climate law (to combat man-made climate change and greenhouse gas emissions) under the tenure of Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra and the most multiparty legislature in Peruvian history bear fruit remains to be seen.
Only one party, Popular Action (a liberal-conservative party) polled more than 10% of the votes cast, and even then its vote share was as low as 10.31%. Even in particularly fragmented systems using list-PR the party in pole position generally polls at least 20% of the votes cast; the vote shares obtained by parties in this Peruvian election make the Czech Republic look psephologically stable. This psephological fragmentation occurred despite the fact that there is a 5% electoral threshold in Peru, without any exemptions despite it being open-list representation.
The once-dominant Popular Force, the main vehicle for the neoconservative and clientelist Fujimorist ideology, was decimated in this election, dropping from 1st place and a clear majority to sixth place and just 15 seats, compared to the 73 it won in 2016. With such a drastic loss of support combined with its leader, Keiko Fujimori (daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, after whom the ideology is named) currently detained and unable to run for office, this means an effective end to Fujimorism in Peru, especially since it dropped to only 7.24% of the vote. By comparison, Ms Fujimori came close to winning the 2011 and 2016 Peruvian Presidential elections in the second round, and Popular Force and its predecessors always had significant support even after Mr Fujimori's crimes had been exposed. Another "establishment" party of Peru, the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA), which was the main social-democratic party in Peru and the governing party under the tenures of the late Alan Garcia (who committed suicide last year to avoid arrest on corruption charges in relation to the Odebrecht scandal; another former Peruvian President, Alejandro Toledo, was arrested shortly afterward over bribery allegations in the same scandal), was wiped out completely after polling a miserable 2.73%, well below the 5% threshold. Since the end of Mr Garcia's final tenure as President of Peru, APRA has endured the same long decline of most social-democratic/old socialist parties around the world, and like Popular Force it will likely never rise to prominence again. The other socialist party in Peru, the Broad Front, dropped from 20 seats to just 9, showing that old-fashioned socialism in general is on the wane in Peru like everywhere else.
Four new parties entered the Assembly: the Agricultrual People's Front (an indigenous land reform movement), Podemos Peru (a populist conservative party), the Purple Party (a centrist neoliberal party), and the Union for Peru (representing the "ethnocacerist" movement, which seeks a proletarian dictatorship by indigenous communities in Peru). The entrance of all these parties, as well as Popular Action's newfound support, represents a strong desire for anti-corruption and anti-nepotist reforms in Peru, as well as a regaining of power by indigenous communities in Peru (not just Quechua and Aymara speakers). Incidentally, even the party receiving the electoral wooden spoon, Contigo, still managed 1.07% of the vote; in Europe the wooden spoon holder is lucky if they poll over 0.01% in an election.
The Odebrecht scandal emanating from Brazil has undoubtedly been the strongest contemporary factor in the shake up of the Peruvian Assembly, in spite of the long-term factors cited above. Turnout nevertheless remained unimpressive by normal democratic standards, for it only narrowly exceeded 55% in this Peruvian election. Whether the proposed reforms desired by the electorate, as well as the new climate law (to combat man-made climate change and greenhouse gas emissions) under the tenure of Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra and the most multiparty legislature in Peruvian history bear fruit remains to be seen.
Comments
Post a Comment