The Irish general election of 2020: an end to the Fianna Fail/Fine Gael merry-go-round
The 2020 Irish general election produced the most sensational electoral results in the history of the Republic of Ireland.
Sinn Fein topped the poll in terms of 1st preference votes with 24.5%, although because of undernomination of candidates (following the nomination of three candidates instead of two in Donegal in 2016 which cost them a seat on transfers), their seat total only equalled that of Fianna Fail's 37 (excluding the Ceann Comhairle, or Speaker, who is automatically re-elected), since Fianna Fail nominated more candidates (twice as many as SF) and could pick up transfers more easily in their rural heartlands. The Brexit factor, which indirectly affects Ireland and not just due to the border issue, played a part in Sinn Fein's many victories; only 5 of the 42 nominated Sinn Fein candidates failed to be elected.
Fine Gael experienced a trouncing defeat this election, achieving their worst ever result (20.9%) but not their lowest number of TDs (35, as opposed to just 31 in 2002). Key defeats for Fine Gael this year included Minister for Employment Regina Doherty in Meath East, Minister for Higher Education Mary Mitchell O'Connor in Dun Laoghaire, and Government Chief Whip Sean Kyne in Galway West. They were also left without a single seat in Cork South-West, which since its creation in 1961 has always elected at least one Fine Gael TD, and often two. The Fine Gael-led government of Leo Varadkar, who replaced Enda Kenny as Taoiseach (prime minister) in 2017, had only narrowly survived votes of no confidence in three of its ministers, and furthermore its slow reaction to climate change left it vulnerable to a Green Party resurgence in the affluent urban areas Fine Gael calls home in Ireland, and such a Green Party resurgence following Joe O'Brien's win in the Dublin Fingal by-election of 29 November 2019 did indeed come to roost.
Fianna Fail, having given confidence and supply to Fine Gael despite not receiving any Cabinet posts in the Dail, also fared badly, dropping from 44 seats to 37; notable defeats for them included Pat "the Cope" Gallagher, unseated by the same Sinn Fein TD he defeated in 2016 (Padraig Mac Lochlainn) and who had been in the Dail on and off since 1981, and Malcolm Byrne, who had only been elected 10 weeks earlier in the Wexford by-election. The societal changes in Ireland, which account for the decisive majorities in referenda to legalise same-sex marriage and liberalise laws on abortion, are the primary reason why Fianna Fail has not regained its former dominance and never will, and Ireland has politically transitioned to a genuinely multiparty system, even if Fianna Fail and Fine Gael field the most candidates. Between them (and counting the Ceann Comhairle, Sean O Fearghail), Fianna Fail and Fine Gael won just 73 seats between them, the lowest in the history of the Republic of Ireland. By contrast, Fine Gael won 76 seats by itself just nine years ago, and Fianna Fail usually won more than 73 seats by itself in most elections in Eire. The Fianna Fail/Fine Gael (almost always with Labour) merry-go-round that has persisted since 1922 has at last come to an end in Ireland.
The Green Party achieved a record result in Ireland, electing as many as 12 TDs this year, twice as many as their previous high of 6 TDs in 2002 or 2007. Although their strongest base was yet again in Greater Dublin, they also won seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Limerick City, Waterford, and Wicklow, although surprisingly Lorna Bogue failed to win a seat in Cork South-Central, where Dan Boyle had been a Green TD from 2002 to 2007 (although it was a five-seat constituency before 2016), losing on the final count. Like in other countries, growing awareness of the need to tackle man-made climate change has been the primary cause of this Green resurgence, although the Irish Greens do need to broaden their base in the countryside. Of the 12 Green TDs elected, eight were elected in Dublin constituencies. Saoirse McHugh's performance in Mayo, the least densely populated county in Eire, highlights that the Greens can reach out to rural counties in Ireland if they try.
Labour did surprisingly well this election, given that polls showed them on the brink of electoral oblivion only a few months prior to the election. Joan Burton, the former Tanaiste (deputy prime minister) lost her seat in Dublin West having clung on in 2016 and Jan O'Sullivan also lost her seat in Limerick City, and in constituencies without an incumbent Labour's vote collapsed, as seen notably in Longford-Westmeath when long-serving Labour TD Willie Penrose retired. In fact they did not even field a candidate in Kerry, where former Labour leader Dick Spring was a deputy; his son Arthur Spring was also a Labour TD in Kerry until 2016. Labour's woes primarily stem from the competition they must face from the Social Democrats on one hand and the Marxist Solidarity-People Before Profit Alliance on the other hand, which is pulling their vote apart in two different directions. An economic upturn in Ireland did not help Labour either. Labour's only consolations this election were Aodhan O Riordain recapturing his seat in Dublin Bay North and Ged Nash capturing a seat in (County) Louth, meaning that overall they managed to win 6 seats, just one down from 2016 despite polling just 4.4% of 1st preference votes.
The Social Democrats also had a record result, doubling their TDs from 3 to 6, gaining seats in Cork South-West, Dublin Bay South, and Dublin Central, and holding their seat in Wicklow after Stephen Donnelly defected to Fianna Fail (Mr Donnelly held his seat as a Fianna Fail candidate as well, incidentally). Having had to rely on the personal votes of former Labour TDs who founded the party in the 2016 general election, the Social Democrats have now been able to establish a base of moderate voters in the suburbs who are not as affluent as core Fine Gael voters. The same economic upturn that was adding to Labour's woes hit the Solidarity (formerly Anti-Austerity Alliance, formerly Socialist)-People Before Profit Alliance, but in the end they held 5 seats, with only Ruth Coppinger losing her seat in Dublin West. The transferred votes of many Sinn Fein candidates who were elected on the first or second count proved crucial to the survival of Solidarity-People Before Profit's parliamentary contingent, with only Richard Boyd Barrett polling well enough not to rely on them. A pro-life splinter group from Sinn Fein, Aontu (Irish for "unity" or "consent") performed poorly due to the Sinn Fein upsurge, although its founder Peadar Toibin kept his seat in Meath West; the only other candidate to poll particularly well was Becky Kealy in Cork North-West, but this was because Sinn Fein decided not to field any candidates there. It only polled 1.9%, narrowly missing the entitlement to national reimbursement despite re-electing Mr Toibin, and most Aontu candidates failed to poll enough votes to reclaim their election expenses. Generally its results strongly correlated with the strength of the "No" vote in the abortion referendum in the constituency in question, hence their above average results in Cavan-Monaghan and Donegal, where they finished ahead of the Green candidates. The Independents 4 Change group, despite the retirement of Tommy Broughan and Clare Daly now being an MEP, surprisingly retained one seat in Dublin South-Central via way of Joan Collins. Renua dropped out of sight, with most of their candidates finishing bottom of the poll where they stood. The two hard right Eurosceptic parties, the Irish Freedom Party and the National Party, flopped as expected, with prominent alt-right libertarian activist Ben Gilroy polling a miserable 771 votes for the Irish Freedom Party in Dublin Bay North and the National Party leader's wife, Rebecca Barrett, finishing bottom in Limerick City with just 345 votes.
Independents faced a relatively hard time in this Dail election, with Independent ministers Shane Ross and Katherine Zappone both losing their seats. Kevin "Boxer" Moran also narrowly failed to be re-elected partly due to clever transfer tactics by Fianna Fail. Both Healy-Raes (Michael and Danny) were easily re-elected in Kerry although their votes were slightly down on their 2016 result. Worryingly, another Independent who was elected was Verona Murphy, who ran as the Fine Gael candidate in the Wexford by-election but was later deselected for making Islamophobic comments about migrants. Two socialist-minded independents were not so lucky, with Seamus Healy losing his seat in Tipperary and John Lyons failing to win a seat in Dublin Bay North. Homelessness campaigner Sean O'Leary ran in 11 constituencies this election (an election practice outlawed in most countries) polling derisory votes in all of them, and technically he accounted for the two lowest vote totals in a constituency this election (16 and 11). Surprisingly, perennial candidates Donal Jackson and John Dominic Keigher with his typewritten manifesto improved on their 2016 vote but it was still derisory; Mr Jackson came bottom in Longford-Westmeath yet again with 71 votes and Mr Keigher polled only 48 votes in Dublin Bay South.The wooden spoon went to Independent candidate William King in Wexford, who polled just 20 votes.
Even though Sinn Fein were polling so well and about to help break up the de facto two-party system in Ireland forever, turnout actually decreased by 2.2% to 62.9%, with abstentions from some Fine Gael voters forming a key part of that decrease. It is likely that Mary Lou McDonald, leader of Sinn Fein, will become the next Taoiseach, given that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael no longer have enough seats between them to form a viable coalition that would exclude Sinn Fein, and the Greens would be unlikely to support such a coalition in light of their disastrous defeat in 2011 after four years in coalition with Fianna Fail.
Sinn Fein topped the poll in terms of 1st preference votes with 24.5%, although because of undernomination of candidates (following the nomination of three candidates instead of two in Donegal in 2016 which cost them a seat on transfers), their seat total only equalled that of Fianna Fail's 37 (excluding the Ceann Comhairle, or Speaker, who is automatically re-elected), since Fianna Fail nominated more candidates (twice as many as SF) and could pick up transfers more easily in their rural heartlands. The Brexit factor, which indirectly affects Ireland and not just due to the border issue, played a part in Sinn Fein's many victories; only 5 of the 42 nominated Sinn Fein candidates failed to be elected.
Fine Gael experienced a trouncing defeat this election, achieving their worst ever result (20.9%) but not their lowest number of TDs (35, as opposed to just 31 in 2002). Key defeats for Fine Gael this year included Minister for Employment Regina Doherty in Meath East, Minister for Higher Education Mary Mitchell O'Connor in Dun Laoghaire, and Government Chief Whip Sean Kyne in Galway West. They were also left without a single seat in Cork South-West, which since its creation in 1961 has always elected at least one Fine Gael TD, and often two. The Fine Gael-led government of Leo Varadkar, who replaced Enda Kenny as Taoiseach (prime minister) in 2017, had only narrowly survived votes of no confidence in three of its ministers, and furthermore its slow reaction to climate change left it vulnerable to a Green Party resurgence in the affluent urban areas Fine Gael calls home in Ireland, and such a Green Party resurgence following Joe O'Brien's win in the Dublin Fingal by-election of 29 November 2019 did indeed come to roost.
Fianna Fail, having given confidence and supply to Fine Gael despite not receiving any Cabinet posts in the Dail, also fared badly, dropping from 44 seats to 37; notable defeats for them included Pat "the Cope" Gallagher, unseated by the same Sinn Fein TD he defeated in 2016 (Padraig Mac Lochlainn) and who had been in the Dail on and off since 1981, and Malcolm Byrne, who had only been elected 10 weeks earlier in the Wexford by-election. The societal changes in Ireland, which account for the decisive majorities in referenda to legalise same-sex marriage and liberalise laws on abortion, are the primary reason why Fianna Fail has not regained its former dominance and never will, and Ireland has politically transitioned to a genuinely multiparty system, even if Fianna Fail and Fine Gael field the most candidates. Between them (and counting the Ceann Comhairle, Sean O Fearghail), Fianna Fail and Fine Gael won just 73 seats between them, the lowest in the history of the Republic of Ireland. By contrast, Fine Gael won 76 seats by itself just nine years ago, and Fianna Fail usually won more than 73 seats by itself in most elections in Eire. The Fianna Fail/Fine Gael (almost always with Labour) merry-go-round that has persisted since 1922 has at last come to an end in Ireland.
The Green Party achieved a record result in Ireland, electing as many as 12 TDs this year, twice as many as their previous high of 6 TDs in 2002 or 2007. Although their strongest base was yet again in Greater Dublin, they also won seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Limerick City, Waterford, and Wicklow, although surprisingly Lorna Bogue failed to win a seat in Cork South-Central, where Dan Boyle had been a Green TD from 2002 to 2007 (although it was a five-seat constituency before 2016), losing on the final count. Like in other countries, growing awareness of the need to tackle man-made climate change has been the primary cause of this Green resurgence, although the Irish Greens do need to broaden their base in the countryside. Of the 12 Green TDs elected, eight were elected in Dublin constituencies. Saoirse McHugh's performance in Mayo, the least densely populated county in Eire, highlights that the Greens can reach out to rural counties in Ireland if they try.
Labour did surprisingly well this election, given that polls showed them on the brink of electoral oblivion only a few months prior to the election. Joan Burton, the former Tanaiste (deputy prime minister) lost her seat in Dublin West having clung on in 2016 and Jan O'Sullivan also lost her seat in Limerick City, and in constituencies without an incumbent Labour's vote collapsed, as seen notably in Longford-Westmeath when long-serving Labour TD Willie Penrose retired. In fact they did not even field a candidate in Kerry, where former Labour leader Dick Spring was a deputy; his son Arthur Spring was also a Labour TD in Kerry until 2016. Labour's woes primarily stem from the competition they must face from the Social Democrats on one hand and the Marxist Solidarity-People Before Profit Alliance on the other hand, which is pulling their vote apart in two different directions. An economic upturn in Ireland did not help Labour either. Labour's only consolations this election were Aodhan O Riordain recapturing his seat in Dublin Bay North and Ged Nash capturing a seat in (County) Louth, meaning that overall they managed to win 6 seats, just one down from 2016 despite polling just 4.4% of 1st preference votes.
The Social Democrats also had a record result, doubling their TDs from 3 to 6, gaining seats in Cork South-West, Dublin Bay South, and Dublin Central, and holding their seat in Wicklow after Stephen Donnelly defected to Fianna Fail (Mr Donnelly held his seat as a Fianna Fail candidate as well, incidentally). Having had to rely on the personal votes of former Labour TDs who founded the party in the 2016 general election, the Social Democrats have now been able to establish a base of moderate voters in the suburbs who are not as affluent as core Fine Gael voters. The same economic upturn that was adding to Labour's woes hit the Solidarity (formerly Anti-Austerity Alliance, formerly Socialist)-People Before Profit Alliance, but in the end they held 5 seats, with only Ruth Coppinger losing her seat in Dublin West. The transferred votes of many Sinn Fein candidates who were elected on the first or second count proved crucial to the survival of Solidarity-People Before Profit's parliamentary contingent, with only Richard Boyd Barrett polling well enough not to rely on them. A pro-life splinter group from Sinn Fein, Aontu (Irish for "unity" or "consent") performed poorly due to the Sinn Fein upsurge, although its founder Peadar Toibin kept his seat in Meath West; the only other candidate to poll particularly well was Becky Kealy in Cork North-West, but this was because Sinn Fein decided not to field any candidates there. It only polled 1.9%, narrowly missing the entitlement to national reimbursement despite re-electing Mr Toibin, and most Aontu candidates failed to poll enough votes to reclaim their election expenses. Generally its results strongly correlated with the strength of the "No" vote in the abortion referendum in the constituency in question, hence their above average results in Cavan-Monaghan and Donegal, where they finished ahead of the Green candidates. The Independents 4 Change group, despite the retirement of Tommy Broughan and Clare Daly now being an MEP, surprisingly retained one seat in Dublin South-Central via way of Joan Collins. Renua dropped out of sight, with most of their candidates finishing bottom of the poll where they stood. The two hard right Eurosceptic parties, the Irish Freedom Party and the National Party, flopped as expected, with prominent alt-right libertarian activist Ben Gilroy polling a miserable 771 votes for the Irish Freedom Party in Dublin Bay North and the National Party leader's wife, Rebecca Barrett, finishing bottom in Limerick City with just 345 votes.
Independents faced a relatively hard time in this Dail election, with Independent ministers Shane Ross and Katherine Zappone both losing their seats. Kevin "Boxer" Moran also narrowly failed to be re-elected partly due to clever transfer tactics by Fianna Fail. Both Healy-Raes (Michael and Danny) were easily re-elected in Kerry although their votes were slightly down on their 2016 result. Worryingly, another Independent who was elected was Verona Murphy, who ran as the Fine Gael candidate in the Wexford by-election but was later deselected for making Islamophobic comments about migrants. Two socialist-minded independents were not so lucky, with Seamus Healy losing his seat in Tipperary and John Lyons failing to win a seat in Dublin Bay North. Homelessness campaigner Sean O'Leary ran in 11 constituencies this election (an election practice outlawed in most countries) polling derisory votes in all of them, and technically he accounted for the two lowest vote totals in a constituency this election (16 and 11). Surprisingly, perennial candidates Donal Jackson and John Dominic Keigher with his typewritten manifesto improved on their 2016 vote but it was still derisory; Mr Jackson came bottom in Longford-Westmeath yet again with 71 votes and Mr Keigher polled only 48 votes in Dublin Bay South.The wooden spoon went to Independent candidate William King in Wexford, who polled just 20 votes.
Even though Sinn Fein were polling so well and about to help break up the de facto two-party system in Ireland forever, turnout actually decreased by 2.2% to 62.9%, with abstentions from some Fine Gael voters forming a key part of that decrease. It is likely that Mary Lou McDonald, leader of Sinn Fein, will become the next Taoiseach, given that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael no longer have enough seats between them to form a viable coalition that would exclude Sinn Fein, and the Greens would be unlikely to support such a coalition in light of their disastrous defeat in 2011 after four years in coalition with Fianna Fail.
Actually, Ged Nash regained a seat for Labour In Louth, though I agree with the rest of your observation on Labour.
ReplyDeleteIt is too simplistic to say that the shifting social attitudes are to blame for Fianna Fail's slip from dominance - this ignores their part in the collapse of the Celtic Tiger economy, then their more recent offer of C&S for an increasingly unpopular Fine Gael government who failed to address the issues of Housing, Healthcare and Transport.
ReplyDeleteThe referendum on marriage equality was under the Enda Kenny government and supported by all major parties and the Repeal the 8th Amendment referendum was driven by Fine Gael's leadership and supported by Micheal Martin (against his Ard Fheis).
Sinn Fein were expected to be trounced after their disastrous showing in the local elections, but they became the catalyst for getting rid of Fine Gael. As with the unexpected big gains by Labour in 2011, many SF candidates were swept in by the surge, and it might be that many are swept out again at the next General Election.
I am not yet ready to right Fianna Fail off, not least given the number of Independents of their gene-pool still around, such as Mattie McGrath, Noel Grealish, the Healy-Raes, Sean Canney and Richard O'Donoghue.
Also, look at the Independents of the FG gene pool- such as Michael Lowry, Denis Naughton, Matt Shanahan, Verona Murphy, Marian Harkin and Peter Fitzpatrick. Not to mention former Labour members, Michael McNamara and Catherine Connolly.
Irish politics is not so simple and the reading of the runes not so easily interpreted for future predictions.
The Soldiers of Destiny are waiting for Sinn Fein and their fellows to trip up, and then they will pounce. As somebody who has no love at all for Fianna Fail, this fills me with no joy.