Hamburg keeps the Green Wave rolling in Germany
The recent Landtag (state) election in the Hanseatic City of Hamburg, Germany, kept the Green Wave rolling-and delivered a heavy blow to the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
The Greens more than doubled their seat total in Hamburg, jumping from 15 to 33 seats, and crucially second place behind the dominant SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany); furthermore they topped the poll in many of Hamburg's Wahlkreise, which unlike in many Lander are not single seat constituencies but instead are small open list PR constituencies. The CDU, meanwhile, were pushed into a poor third place despite only losing 5 seats; 11.2% is the worst CDU vote share recorded in any modern Landtag election. Their particularly poor performance, even by Hamburg standards, is attributable to turmoil in the CDU nationally after Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer pulled out of the race to succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor amid speculation that a much more conservative CDU leader like Friedrich Merz would be required instead to counter the rise of the hardline nationalist Eurosceptic AfD (Alternative for Germany). However, the Greens are increasingly good at picking up lapsed CDU voters in Germany just as they have won over many ex-SPD voters. The need to have a safe and liveable environment is a universal need, after all.
The SPD lost 4 seats but due to Hamburg's high proportion of urban public sector workers it easily topped the poll once again; social democratic parties in Europe, not just the UK, are increasingly relying on this type of voter. This means it is now 8 seats short of a majority (as opposed to 4 in 2015) and therefore cannot govern as a minority government, although no viable coalition can be formed in Hamburg without them being the senior partner of said coalition.
The AfD and FDP both came surprisingly close to being eliminated from the Hamburg Parliament, although initial reports of the AfD's elimination by the Guardian proved to be "greatly exaggerated", as Mark Twain would put it. The AfD did indeed lose support, especially after allegations they were directly connected to the recent shootings in Hanau, but they narrowly survived with 5.3%, which meant they lost just one seat. The FDP, meanwhile, just missed the funf prozent (five percent) threshold by 121 votes,meaning it lost all its seats in Hamburg bar the direct mandate won by its leader when the count concluded. Die Linke, meanwhile, managed their first seat increase in Hamburg in 12 years, winning an extra two seats although the near-elimination of the FDP indirectly aided this. Their vote base may be stable in Hamburg, but there is little room for advancement because it is losing young progressively minded voters to the Greens in exchange from gaining lapsed older SPD voters. The satirical Die PARTEI performed best of all the minor parties in this Hamburgian election, coming just ahead of Euro-federalist Volt Europa; Die PARTEI polled 1.4% and Volt Europa polled 1.3%. The conservative green ODP (Ecological Democratic Party), on the other hand, barely even registered.
The Green Wave continues and in particular amongst other German political parties the SPD and CDU are trying anything they can to portray themselves as green-minded, even though it is clear that their support of neoliberalism means they can never be truly green.
UPDATE: Seat totals corrected after final count revealed that the FDP had not crossed the 5% threshold after all.
The Greens more than doubled their seat total in Hamburg, jumping from 15 to 33 seats, and crucially second place behind the dominant SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany); furthermore they topped the poll in many of Hamburg's Wahlkreise, which unlike in many Lander are not single seat constituencies but instead are small open list PR constituencies. The CDU, meanwhile, were pushed into a poor third place despite only losing 5 seats; 11.2% is the worst CDU vote share recorded in any modern Landtag election. Their particularly poor performance, even by Hamburg standards, is attributable to turmoil in the CDU nationally after Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer pulled out of the race to succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor amid speculation that a much more conservative CDU leader like Friedrich Merz would be required instead to counter the rise of the hardline nationalist Eurosceptic AfD (Alternative for Germany). However, the Greens are increasingly good at picking up lapsed CDU voters in Germany just as they have won over many ex-SPD voters. The need to have a safe and liveable environment is a universal need, after all.
The SPD lost 4 seats but due to Hamburg's high proportion of urban public sector workers it easily topped the poll once again; social democratic parties in Europe, not just the UK, are increasingly relying on this type of voter. This means it is now 8 seats short of a majority (as opposed to 4 in 2015) and therefore cannot govern as a minority government, although no viable coalition can be formed in Hamburg without them being the senior partner of said coalition.
The AfD and FDP both came surprisingly close to being eliminated from the Hamburg Parliament, although initial reports of the AfD's elimination by the Guardian proved to be "greatly exaggerated", as Mark Twain would put it. The AfD did indeed lose support, especially after allegations they were directly connected to the recent shootings in Hanau, but they narrowly survived with 5.3%, which meant they lost just one seat. The FDP, meanwhile, just missed the funf prozent (five percent) threshold by 121 votes,meaning it lost all its seats in Hamburg bar the direct mandate won by its leader when the count concluded. Die Linke, meanwhile, managed their first seat increase in Hamburg in 12 years, winning an extra two seats although the near-elimination of the FDP indirectly aided this. Their vote base may be stable in Hamburg, but there is little room for advancement because it is losing young progressively minded voters to the Greens in exchange from gaining lapsed older SPD voters. The satirical Die PARTEI performed best of all the minor parties in this Hamburgian election, coming just ahead of Euro-federalist Volt Europa; Die PARTEI polled 1.4% and Volt Europa polled 1.3%. The conservative green ODP (Ecological Democratic Party), on the other hand, barely even registered.
The Green Wave continues and in particular amongst other German political parties the SPD and CDU are trying anything they can to portray themselves as green-minded, even though it is clear that their support of neoliberalism means they can never be truly green.
UPDATE: Seat totals corrected after final count revealed that the FDP had not crossed the 5% threshold after all.
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