Danish general election of 2019: Denmark repudiates radicalised right
The Danish general election of 2019, which took place yesterday, marked a turn back towards the progressivism Scandinavian countries are famous for.
The Danish People's Party, which in 2015 beat the traditional leader of the "blue" (economic right) bloc, Venstre, for second place, endured its worst election result since its inaugural election in 1998, which followed on from losing all but 1 MEP last month. It was nearly beaten into fourth place by the Danish Social Liberal Party, with whom it now has an equal number of seats to (16). Their losses are down not only due to Mette Frederiksen's shift away from open borders which was favoured by her predecessor as Social Democrat leader, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, which won over some more traditional voters whilst losing more socially liberal metropolitan voters, but also due to a splintering in their vote by two new and more extreme nationalist anti-immigration parties, the neoconservative New Right, which won 4 seats with 2.4% of the vote, and the aptly named Hard Line, which in polling 1.8% failed to cross the 2% threshold necessary to win any seats. However, they did cost the Danish People's Party seats in its strongest areas, as did New Right, despite the low standard deviation in their votes and the fact they only won MPs through compensatory mandates. 40 such mandates exist in Denmark for parties crossing the 2% national threshold to balance out imbalances from the results of the ten multi-member constituencies electing a total of 135 MPs; even with Sainte-League and open lists imbalances do occur.
The Social Democrats in fact only gained one seat despite Mette's shift to win back more traditional voters, which are in long-term decline hence the stabilisation of the vote of the more "hard socialist" Socialist People's Party and radical Red-Green Alliance (far more red than green). The Socialist People's Party, actually part of the Green group in the European Parliament, won over many lapsed social democrats as well as voters it had lost in 2015, whereas the Red-Green Alliance lost a seat to fall one seat behind the Socialist People's Party but kept its core base, mainly in Central Copenhagen. Younger voters are increasingly shifting towards the latter two, although in terms of older voters the Conservative People's Party, who were leaking support towards the Danish People's Party especially in the city suburbs, made a significant recovery, doubling their seat total to 12. It was Venstre, however which reasserted itself at the top of the "blue bloc" once again, gaining 9 seats but still leaving them 5 behind the Social Democrats (they have 43; the Social Democrats have 48). The collapse of the Liberal Alliance, the most junior partner in Lars Lokke Rasmussen's government which found itself unable to reconcile its libertarian stance with the socially conservative and insular stance of the Danish People's Party (the other junior partner in Lars' government), partly helped Venstre but also saw a shift of genuinely liberal voters towards the Danish Social Liberal Party. The Liberal Alliance's vote share to 2.3%, only narrowly above the 2% threshold and behind New Right, and its leader Anders Samuelsen lost his own seat in the Folketing. This shift in liberal votes proved decisive to the election outcome; had the Liberal Alliance maintained their seats the "blue bloc" would have had just enough seats to form a government, but the loss of those seats firmly puts the "blue bloc" out of the running for forming the next government.
The pressing importance of combatting climate change proved to be of no help to Alternativet (The Alternative), Denmark's moderate green party, who fared worse than in the European Parliament election last month. The recovery of the Socialist People's Party hit it hard just in the areas it was relying on; it only won a constituency mandate in Central Copenhagen, where it still lost many votes to the Socialist People's Party, and now has just 5 seats in the Folketing. .The Alternative's more pressing problem is that its base is too narrow; it has strong support in Copenhagen and the intellectual city of Aarhus but very limited support elsewhere in Denmark. The Red-Green Alliance claims to be ecosocialist but won over few Alternativet voters, partly because in Denmark they consist of more moderate middle-class greens. Like their Norwegian counterparts, The Alternative will not join either the red or blue blocs in the next sitting of the Folketing. With 91 seats in Denmark alone, plus three in total across the Faroe Islands and Greenland, the "red bloc" is certain to form the next Danish government.
The Christian Democrats had an unfortunate election as well; with 1.7% they failed to win seats but in Jutland, on the border with Germany, they were just 200 votes away from winning a direct mandate with 5.3% of the vote. Like most of Europe, Denmark is becoming more and more secular and the Christian Democrats only doubled their vote due to the drubbing of the Danish People's Party. The Klaus Riskaer Pedersen list, a vanity project by the former Venstre MEP of the same name who only entered the ballot due to a loophole in Danish electoral law, universally flopped failing to poll more than 1% in any Danish constituency and coming last in the list vote in every region, partly also due to fielding so few candidates compared to other parties; list sizes are crucial in open list elections. Such was its poor performance that Klaus dissolved the party the following day, finding how little of a following he actually had anywhere in Denmark. Independents as per usual got nowhere and none of them even beat the Klaus Riskaer Pedersen list; in 1994 Jacob Haugaard showed that it is possible for them to win but not a single independent candidate in Denmark has been able to achieve anything like the recognition Jacob got.
The Danish People's Party, which in 2015 beat the traditional leader of the "blue" (economic right) bloc, Venstre, for second place, endured its worst election result since its inaugural election in 1998, which followed on from losing all but 1 MEP last month. It was nearly beaten into fourth place by the Danish Social Liberal Party, with whom it now has an equal number of seats to (16). Their losses are down not only due to Mette Frederiksen's shift away from open borders which was favoured by her predecessor as Social Democrat leader, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, which won over some more traditional voters whilst losing more socially liberal metropolitan voters, but also due to a splintering in their vote by two new and more extreme nationalist anti-immigration parties, the neoconservative New Right, which won 4 seats with 2.4% of the vote, and the aptly named Hard Line, which in polling 1.8% failed to cross the 2% threshold necessary to win any seats. However, they did cost the Danish People's Party seats in its strongest areas, as did New Right, despite the low standard deviation in their votes and the fact they only won MPs through compensatory mandates. 40 such mandates exist in Denmark for parties crossing the 2% national threshold to balance out imbalances from the results of the ten multi-member constituencies electing a total of 135 MPs; even with Sainte-League and open lists imbalances do occur.
The Social Democrats in fact only gained one seat despite Mette's shift to win back more traditional voters, which are in long-term decline hence the stabilisation of the vote of the more "hard socialist" Socialist People's Party and radical Red-Green Alliance (far more red than green). The Socialist People's Party, actually part of the Green group in the European Parliament, won over many lapsed social democrats as well as voters it had lost in 2015, whereas the Red-Green Alliance lost a seat to fall one seat behind the Socialist People's Party but kept its core base, mainly in Central Copenhagen. Younger voters are increasingly shifting towards the latter two, although in terms of older voters the Conservative People's Party, who were leaking support towards the Danish People's Party especially in the city suburbs, made a significant recovery, doubling their seat total to 12. It was Venstre, however which reasserted itself at the top of the "blue bloc" once again, gaining 9 seats but still leaving them 5 behind the Social Democrats (they have 43; the Social Democrats have 48). The collapse of the Liberal Alliance, the most junior partner in Lars Lokke Rasmussen's government which found itself unable to reconcile its libertarian stance with the socially conservative and insular stance of the Danish People's Party (the other junior partner in Lars' government), partly helped Venstre but also saw a shift of genuinely liberal voters towards the Danish Social Liberal Party. The Liberal Alliance's vote share to 2.3%, only narrowly above the 2% threshold and behind New Right, and its leader Anders Samuelsen lost his own seat in the Folketing. This shift in liberal votes proved decisive to the election outcome; had the Liberal Alliance maintained their seats the "blue bloc" would have had just enough seats to form a government, but the loss of those seats firmly puts the "blue bloc" out of the running for forming the next government.
The pressing importance of combatting climate change proved to be of no help to Alternativet (The Alternative), Denmark's moderate green party, who fared worse than in the European Parliament election last month. The recovery of the Socialist People's Party hit it hard just in the areas it was relying on; it only won a constituency mandate in Central Copenhagen, where it still lost many votes to the Socialist People's Party, and now has just 5 seats in the Folketing. .The Alternative's more pressing problem is that its base is too narrow; it has strong support in Copenhagen and the intellectual city of Aarhus but very limited support elsewhere in Denmark. The Red-Green Alliance claims to be ecosocialist but won over few Alternativet voters, partly because in Denmark they consist of more moderate middle-class greens. Like their Norwegian counterparts, The Alternative will not join either the red or blue blocs in the next sitting of the Folketing. With 91 seats in Denmark alone, plus three in total across the Faroe Islands and Greenland, the "red bloc" is certain to form the next Danish government.
The Christian Democrats had an unfortunate election as well; with 1.7% they failed to win seats but in Jutland, on the border with Germany, they were just 200 votes away from winning a direct mandate with 5.3% of the vote. Like most of Europe, Denmark is becoming more and more secular and the Christian Democrats only doubled their vote due to the drubbing of the Danish People's Party. The Klaus Riskaer Pedersen list, a vanity project by the former Venstre MEP of the same name who only entered the ballot due to a loophole in Danish electoral law, universally flopped failing to poll more than 1% in any Danish constituency and coming last in the list vote in every region, partly also due to fielding so few candidates compared to other parties; list sizes are crucial in open list elections. Such was its poor performance that Klaus dissolved the party the following day, finding how little of a following he actually had anywhere in Denmark. Independents as per usual got nowhere and none of them even beat the Klaus Riskaer Pedersen list; in 1994 Jacob Haugaard showed that it is possible for them to win but not a single independent candidate in Denmark has been able to achieve anything like the recognition Jacob got.
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