Peterborough by-election 2019: Forbes sees off Farage-led fumble
I went off to Green Party conference in Scarborough the day the Peterborough by-election result was declared, which is why this post is later than usual; I usually post the very same day the by-election result is declared. The results of the Peterborough by-election were as follows:
Paul Bristow, Conservative, 7,243 (21.3%, -25.5%)
Lisa Forbes, Labour, 10,484 (30.9%, -17.2%)
Stephen Goldspink, English Democrats, 153 (0.5%)
Mike Greene, Brexit Party, 9,801 (28.9%)
Alan "Howling Laud" Hope, OMRLP, 112 (0.3%)
Pierre Kirk, UK EU Party, 25 (0.07%)
Andrew Moore, 101 (0.3%)
Patrick O'Flynn, SDP, 135 (0.4%)
Dick Rodgers, Common Good, 60 (0.2%)
Tom Rogers, Christian Peoples Alliance, 162 (0.6%)
Beki Sellick, Liberal Democrats, 4,159 (12.3%, +8.9%)
Bobby Smith, 5 (0.01%)
Peter Ward, Renew, 45 (0.1%)
Joseph Wells, Green Party, 1,035 (3.1%, +1.3%)
John Whitby, UKIP, 400 (1.2%)
In any British by-election with universal suffrage, Labour's winning vote share of 30.9% was the lowest ever winning vote share. The lower winning percentages achieved in the Combined English Universities by-election of 1946 and the Sheffield Attercliffe by-election of 1909 are not comparable because in neither case was universal suffrage present; in 1909 no women could vote, nor could a large proportion of men, and the university seats that existed from 1603 to 1950 only had university graduates as electors, no one else, which is why they were abolished for the 1950 general election.
More than anything else, this by-election elaborates unequivocally how broken Britain's electoral system is; the total collapse of the two-party vote (i.e. the combined votes of Conservative and Labour) was 44.7%, higher even than the two-party vote collapse seen in the Clacton by-election nearly five years ago (total of Conservative and Labour vote share decreases: 42.2%). The Conservatives finished third in Peterborough for the first time ever; consistently since 1918 only the Conservatives and Labour have occupied the top two places in elections in Peterborough. The Brexit Party, widely predicted to win by the media, pundits, and bookmakers, finished second; the last time any party other than the Conservatives or Labour occupied the runner-up spot or won the seat was as long ago as December 1910 when George Greenwood was elected as Peterborough's Liberal MP. In actuality, despite the reduced turnout, Labour's majority increased from 607 to 683, an increased of 0.7%.
Labour stopped the Brexit Party challenge for three key reasons. The first was local knowledge of the constituency; Lisa Forbes, the new Labour MP, had contested the constituency in 2015 achieving a 3.4% swing against Stewart Jackson and had lived in Peterborough for 30 years. Secondly, Mike Greene, the Brexit Party's candidate, who had previously featured on the Secret Millionaire, was exposed as having taken a significant role in a company notorious for selling off freeholds of leasehold flats to profiteering overseas developers in connection with the ongoing leasehold scandal, claims which he denied: https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/peterborough-brexit-party-candidate-denies-claims-in-the-guardian-over-involvement-with-housing-firm-1-8953386 Thirdly, despite having finished first in the European elections, the Brexit Party's support is actually relatively low, and in recent polls it has not touched 30% even once. Peterborough voted 62% for Leave in the EU referendum, but this proved not to be sufficient for a Brexit Party win.
The Liberal Democrats experienced a strong increase in vote share, but this did not restore the Liberal Democrat vote to pre-coalition levels. The majority of those extra votes came from the Conservatives rather than Labour, since Peterborough does not have a significant intellectual population; it is nothing like Cambridgeshire's more famous city, that being Cambridge itself. The natural upswing towards the Liberal Democrats exerted a squeeze on the Green Party, although the Green Party's vote share of 3.1% is its best ever in the Peterborough constituency. Had the constituency not been so inherently marginal, the Green Party would have certainly saved their deposit.
All other parties and candidates who did not stand in Peterborough in 2017 flopped. UKIP in particular polled just 400 votes, even though its candidate, John Whitby was up until his defeat last month a councillor in the city. It was a spectacular failure for former MEP Patrick O'Flynn, who by standing on behalf of the SDP polled a miserable 135 votes, only 23 more than the Official Monster Raving Loony Party. His early announcement proved to be of no benefit apart from possibly stopping him suffering the ignominy of finishing behind Howling Laud Hope. It should be remembered that when the old continuity SDP finished with less than half the votes of the late Screaming Lord Sutch in the Bootle by-election of May 1990, that SDP dissolved itself days later, although it did have 3 MPs whereas the current SDP does not even have a principal authority councillor to its name. The Reverend Dick Rodgers of the one-man band Common Good received his lowest ever vote total, a derisory 60. Three candidates polled even lower votes however: Peter Ward of Renew, speculated to be merging with Change UK which has just split in two in parliamentary terms, and Pierre Kirk of the insignificant pro-European UK EU Party barely registered at all.
Fathers' rights activist Bobby Smith got the by-election wooden spoon, however, and by polling 5 votes he ties with Bill Boaks, Smiley Smilie and Kailash Trivedi for the lowest ever number of votes received in a British by-election. He has also become the first ever person to poll fewer than 10 votes in more than one British by-election, having polled 9 votes in the Tooting by-election of 2016. (Bill Boaks' second lowest vote total was 12 in the Manchester Central by-election of 1979)
Even though the by-election was swamped by the more crucial European elections in terms of coverage, combined with the relative lack of by-election campaign reporting by media outlets, turnout was a respectable 48.4%, partly because of the inherent marginality of the current Peterborough constituency, not to mention the collapse of support for both Labour and the Conservatives following the European elections in which they finished third and fifth. Labour should count themselves lucky to hold this seat, even if it was clearly the Conservatives who took the biggest hit from the Brexit Party in electoral terms.
Paul Bristow, Conservative, 7,243 (21.3%, -25.5%)
Lisa Forbes, Labour, 10,484 (30.9%, -17.2%)
Stephen Goldspink, English Democrats, 153 (0.5%)
Mike Greene, Brexit Party, 9,801 (28.9%)
Alan "Howling Laud" Hope, OMRLP, 112 (0.3%)
Pierre Kirk, UK EU Party, 25 (0.07%)
Andrew Moore, 101 (0.3%)
Patrick O'Flynn, SDP, 135 (0.4%)
Dick Rodgers, Common Good, 60 (0.2%)
Tom Rogers, Christian Peoples Alliance, 162 (0.6%)
Beki Sellick, Liberal Democrats, 4,159 (12.3%, +8.9%)
Bobby Smith, 5 (0.01%)
Peter Ward, Renew, 45 (0.1%)
Joseph Wells, Green Party, 1,035 (3.1%, +1.3%)
John Whitby, UKIP, 400 (1.2%)
In any British by-election with universal suffrage, Labour's winning vote share of 30.9% was the lowest ever winning vote share. The lower winning percentages achieved in the Combined English Universities by-election of 1946 and the Sheffield Attercliffe by-election of 1909 are not comparable because in neither case was universal suffrage present; in 1909 no women could vote, nor could a large proportion of men, and the university seats that existed from 1603 to 1950 only had university graduates as electors, no one else, which is why they were abolished for the 1950 general election.
More than anything else, this by-election elaborates unequivocally how broken Britain's electoral system is; the total collapse of the two-party vote (i.e. the combined votes of Conservative and Labour) was 44.7%, higher even than the two-party vote collapse seen in the Clacton by-election nearly five years ago (total of Conservative and Labour vote share decreases: 42.2%). The Conservatives finished third in Peterborough for the first time ever; consistently since 1918 only the Conservatives and Labour have occupied the top two places in elections in Peterborough. The Brexit Party, widely predicted to win by the media, pundits, and bookmakers, finished second; the last time any party other than the Conservatives or Labour occupied the runner-up spot or won the seat was as long ago as December 1910 when George Greenwood was elected as Peterborough's Liberal MP. In actuality, despite the reduced turnout, Labour's majority increased from 607 to 683, an increased of 0.7%.
Labour stopped the Brexit Party challenge for three key reasons. The first was local knowledge of the constituency; Lisa Forbes, the new Labour MP, had contested the constituency in 2015 achieving a 3.4% swing against Stewart Jackson and had lived in Peterborough for 30 years. Secondly, Mike Greene, the Brexit Party's candidate, who had previously featured on the Secret Millionaire, was exposed as having taken a significant role in a company notorious for selling off freeholds of leasehold flats to profiteering overseas developers in connection with the ongoing leasehold scandal, claims which he denied: https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/peterborough-brexit-party-candidate-denies-claims-in-the-guardian-over-involvement-with-housing-firm-1-8953386 Thirdly, despite having finished first in the European elections, the Brexit Party's support is actually relatively low, and in recent polls it has not touched 30% even once. Peterborough voted 62% for Leave in the EU referendum, but this proved not to be sufficient for a Brexit Party win.
The Liberal Democrats experienced a strong increase in vote share, but this did not restore the Liberal Democrat vote to pre-coalition levels. The majority of those extra votes came from the Conservatives rather than Labour, since Peterborough does not have a significant intellectual population; it is nothing like Cambridgeshire's more famous city, that being Cambridge itself. The natural upswing towards the Liberal Democrats exerted a squeeze on the Green Party, although the Green Party's vote share of 3.1% is its best ever in the Peterborough constituency. Had the constituency not been so inherently marginal, the Green Party would have certainly saved their deposit.
All other parties and candidates who did not stand in Peterborough in 2017 flopped. UKIP in particular polled just 400 votes, even though its candidate, John Whitby was up until his defeat last month a councillor in the city. It was a spectacular failure for former MEP Patrick O'Flynn, who by standing on behalf of the SDP polled a miserable 135 votes, only 23 more than the Official Monster Raving Loony Party. His early announcement proved to be of no benefit apart from possibly stopping him suffering the ignominy of finishing behind Howling Laud Hope. It should be remembered that when the old continuity SDP finished with less than half the votes of the late Screaming Lord Sutch in the Bootle by-election of May 1990, that SDP dissolved itself days later, although it did have 3 MPs whereas the current SDP does not even have a principal authority councillor to its name. The Reverend Dick Rodgers of the one-man band Common Good received his lowest ever vote total, a derisory 60. Three candidates polled even lower votes however: Peter Ward of Renew, speculated to be merging with Change UK which has just split in two in parliamentary terms, and Pierre Kirk of the insignificant pro-European UK EU Party barely registered at all.
Fathers' rights activist Bobby Smith got the by-election wooden spoon, however, and by polling 5 votes he ties with Bill Boaks, Smiley Smilie and Kailash Trivedi for the lowest ever number of votes received in a British by-election. He has also become the first ever person to poll fewer than 10 votes in more than one British by-election, having polled 9 votes in the Tooting by-election of 2016. (Bill Boaks' second lowest vote total was 12 in the Manchester Central by-election of 1979)
Even though the by-election was swamped by the more crucial European elections in terms of coverage, combined with the relative lack of by-election campaign reporting by media outlets, turnout was a respectable 48.4%, partly because of the inherent marginality of the current Peterborough constituency, not to mention the collapse of support for both Labour and the Conservatives following the European elections in which they finished third and fifth. Labour should count themselves lucky to hold this seat, even if it was clearly the Conservatives who took the biggest hit from the Brexit Party in electoral terms.
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