Australian federal election of 2019: Morrison's surprise victory not actually a miracle
On 18 May, in the midst of European election fever, Australia held its 2019 federal election, felt to be a reasonably easy victory for Labor. In fact, this was far from the case: the Liberals, led by Scott Morrison after two leadership "spills" (i.e. challenges) in the space of just two years, in fact increased their majority to 3, despite ructions in the Liberals and a redistribution indirectly unfavourable to the Liberals (it changed the Liberal-held Dunkley division into a notional Labor seat, and created two new Labor divisions whilst abolishing only one).
The state of Queensland, the most notoriously conservative Australian state, above all else helped Scott Morrison snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, despite a decrease in the 1st preference vote of 0.5%. Two Labor divisions, Herbert and Longman, were captured by the Liberal Nationals on swings of 8.4% and 4.1%, considerably above the average Labor-Liberal/National swing of 0.45% across Australia, although both were very marginal and both are reliable Liberal National seats generally. Australia is experiencing significant demographic shifts; the Liberals gained two seats in Queensland, two in Tasmania (the two Tasmanian divisions won by the Liberals, Bass and Braddon, frequently turf out incumbents and Braddon has not seen an MP retire since 1984), they lost Corangamite in Victoria, came close to losing Chisholm after its sitting MP, Julia Banks, moved to Flinders having resigned from the Liberals over a culture of bullying and intimidation (this also prompted her colleague, Kelly O'Dwyer, to retire from the division of Higgins), and also Gilmore in New South Wales (but captured Lindsay in compensation; in both cases the sitting MP retired). Their biggest loss was former Prime Minister of Australia Tony Abbott, who lost the otherwise safe Liberal division of Warringah to Olympic skier Zali Steggall having served as its MP for 25 years. However, the Liberals were able to narrowly recover the even safer division of Wentworth from Dr Kerryn Phelps; had they failed to recapture it they would have lost their majority completely.
Labor had a poor night, making a net loss of one seat and seeing large swings against them in three key marginal divisions in Queensland: Capricornia, whose swing to the Liberal Nationals was a high as 11.6%; swings that high are generally only seen in Australian federal elections when there are exceptional local factors present, Forde and Flynn. Three key divisions in New South Wales, Banks, Robertson and Page also experienced considerably above-average swings to the Liberals/Nationals, and many divisions in Queensland will now be out of reach for Labor except in landslide victories, since Queensland is turning against Labor in the long-term in the same way Victoria is turning against the Liberals, which also explains the long-term rise of the Greens in Victoria above all other Australian states and territories.
This election went poorly for the Greens as well; the profile of former trade union leader Ged Kearney saw a 13.5% swing from Green to Labor in the two-party preferred vote in the division of Cooper (formerly Batman), still only finished third in Macnamara (formerly Melbourne Ports) with no progress against Labor, finished third in Higgins despite fielding popular LGBTIQA+ activist Jason Ball once again, and experienced a 3.5% swing against them in another division they hoped to gain from Labor, Wills. On the other hand, they managed a 7.1% swing in Kooyong against Liberal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, and in the division of Canberra (Central) they achieved one of their best federal results with 23.3%, although in terms of capturing it in future they face the same problems as in Macnamara. Brisbane also produced an excellent Greens result with former Australian Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett polling 22.4%, although progressive gentrification of central Brisbane accounts for the rise in the Greens' vote there as much as Andrew's profile. It was also one of a minority of Queensland divisions that actually swung to Labor. The Greens' only MP, Adam Bandt, managed to achieve as much as 48% of the primary vote in Melbourne, this was partly due to Labor's candidate in Melbourne, Luke Creasey, being disendorsed before election day but also because central Melbourne has become greener every passing year due to young intellectuals flocking to it and replacing former dock workers. One surprise was the Greens' vote share holding up in North Sydney despite their former candidate, Dr Arthur Chesterfield-Evans, contesting the division as an Independent and saving his deposit (the deposit retention threshold in Australia is 4%, not 5%). The Greens' vote rose most strongly in South Australia, although this is mainly due to the collapse of the Centre Alliance. The Greens' base is still almost entirely urbane and middle-class in Australia, unlike in Britain where the Green Party can appeal to both rural and urban voters alike and win council seats across the nation. The only rural division of Australia where the Greens have strong support in is Richmond, the closest answer Australia has to Stroud.
Independents did relatively well, with Helen Haines holding Indi where another Independent, Cathy McGowan, retired. However, Julia Banks, the former Liberal MP for Chisholm who stood as an Independent in Flinders, finished a poor third and made no difference to that division's outcome; as seen in Britain switching seats where the previous seat still exists hardly ever works, irrespective of the candidate's national profile (as Martin Bell discovered to his cost in Brentwood & Ongar in 2001). Meanwhile, Andrew Wilkie achieved a 4.4% swing in his favour in the Tasmanian division of Clark.
Despite receiving AUS$65 million in funding from mining magnate and former Fairfax MP Clive Palmer, the United Australia Party almost universally flopped. it polled only 3.4% and failed to finish higher than fourth in any division, even the new division of Fraser. In Clive Palmer's old division of Fairfax they polled only 3.1%. One Nation also failed to come close to winning any seats, even in Queensland, with Wade Rothery in Herbert nevertheless indirectly ensuring the Liberals won that division from Labor due to One Nation voters being hostile to both Labor and the Greens. The Centre Alliance only contested a few divisions and in all except Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie, its support collapsed due to Nick Xenophon no longer being a core part of the party (formerly the Nick Xenophon Team).
The Senate election revealed a further squeeze on parties outside the largest four i.e. the Liberals, Nationals, Labor and Greens. The Greens retained all six of their Senate seats up for election, but Labor and the Coalition won all the other Senate seats except for one in Queensland where One Nation's Malcolm Roberts was elected, and one in Tasmania where Jacqui Lambie was re-elected. Derryn Hinch and Fraser Anning were both roundly defeated, and Clive Palmer did not come close to being elected as a Senator. The Senate crossbench may be smaller but the Greens continue to hold the balance of power.
It was not as surprising a result as first thought; long-term political changes must be accounted for in elections as well. Opinion polling also needs a more balanced distribution of respondents; Scott Morrison attributed the victory to "quiet Australians" (voting is actually compulsory in Australia at all levels; it is those who do not regularly respond to opinion polls that he refers to)
The state of Queensland, the most notoriously conservative Australian state, above all else helped Scott Morrison snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, despite a decrease in the 1st preference vote of 0.5%. Two Labor divisions, Herbert and Longman, were captured by the Liberal Nationals on swings of 8.4% and 4.1%, considerably above the average Labor-Liberal/National swing of 0.45% across Australia, although both were very marginal and both are reliable Liberal National seats generally. Australia is experiencing significant demographic shifts; the Liberals gained two seats in Queensland, two in Tasmania (the two Tasmanian divisions won by the Liberals, Bass and Braddon, frequently turf out incumbents and Braddon has not seen an MP retire since 1984), they lost Corangamite in Victoria, came close to losing Chisholm after its sitting MP, Julia Banks, moved to Flinders having resigned from the Liberals over a culture of bullying and intimidation (this also prompted her colleague, Kelly O'Dwyer, to retire from the division of Higgins), and also Gilmore in New South Wales (but captured Lindsay in compensation; in both cases the sitting MP retired). Their biggest loss was former Prime Minister of Australia Tony Abbott, who lost the otherwise safe Liberal division of Warringah to Olympic skier Zali Steggall having served as its MP for 25 years. However, the Liberals were able to narrowly recover the even safer division of Wentworth from Dr Kerryn Phelps; had they failed to recapture it they would have lost their majority completely.
Labor had a poor night, making a net loss of one seat and seeing large swings against them in three key marginal divisions in Queensland: Capricornia, whose swing to the Liberal Nationals was a high as 11.6%; swings that high are generally only seen in Australian federal elections when there are exceptional local factors present, Forde and Flynn. Three key divisions in New South Wales, Banks, Robertson and Page also experienced considerably above-average swings to the Liberals/Nationals, and many divisions in Queensland will now be out of reach for Labor except in landslide victories, since Queensland is turning against Labor in the long-term in the same way Victoria is turning against the Liberals, which also explains the long-term rise of the Greens in Victoria above all other Australian states and territories.
This election went poorly for the Greens as well; the profile of former trade union leader Ged Kearney saw a 13.5% swing from Green to Labor in the two-party preferred vote in the division of Cooper (formerly Batman), still only finished third in Macnamara (formerly Melbourne Ports) with no progress against Labor, finished third in Higgins despite fielding popular LGBTIQA+ activist Jason Ball once again, and experienced a 3.5% swing against them in another division they hoped to gain from Labor, Wills. On the other hand, they managed a 7.1% swing in Kooyong against Liberal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, and in the division of Canberra (Central) they achieved one of their best federal results with 23.3%, although in terms of capturing it in future they face the same problems as in Macnamara. Brisbane also produced an excellent Greens result with former Australian Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett polling 22.4%, although progressive gentrification of central Brisbane accounts for the rise in the Greens' vote there as much as Andrew's profile. It was also one of a minority of Queensland divisions that actually swung to Labor. The Greens' only MP, Adam Bandt, managed to achieve as much as 48% of the primary vote in Melbourne, this was partly due to Labor's candidate in Melbourne, Luke Creasey, being disendorsed before election day but also because central Melbourne has become greener every passing year due to young intellectuals flocking to it and replacing former dock workers. One surprise was the Greens' vote share holding up in North Sydney despite their former candidate, Dr Arthur Chesterfield-Evans, contesting the division as an Independent and saving his deposit (the deposit retention threshold in Australia is 4%, not 5%). The Greens' vote rose most strongly in South Australia, although this is mainly due to the collapse of the Centre Alliance. The Greens' base is still almost entirely urbane and middle-class in Australia, unlike in Britain where the Green Party can appeal to both rural and urban voters alike and win council seats across the nation. The only rural division of Australia where the Greens have strong support in is Richmond, the closest answer Australia has to Stroud.
Independents did relatively well, with Helen Haines holding Indi where another Independent, Cathy McGowan, retired. However, Julia Banks, the former Liberal MP for Chisholm who stood as an Independent in Flinders, finished a poor third and made no difference to that division's outcome; as seen in Britain switching seats where the previous seat still exists hardly ever works, irrespective of the candidate's national profile (as Martin Bell discovered to his cost in Brentwood & Ongar in 2001). Meanwhile, Andrew Wilkie achieved a 4.4% swing in his favour in the Tasmanian division of Clark.
Despite receiving AUS$65 million in funding from mining magnate and former Fairfax MP Clive Palmer, the United Australia Party almost universally flopped. it polled only 3.4% and failed to finish higher than fourth in any division, even the new division of Fraser. In Clive Palmer's old division of Fairfax they polled only 3.1%. One Nation also failed to come close to winning any seats, even in Queensland, with Wade Rothery in Herbert nevertheless indirectly ensuring the Liberals won that division from Labor due to One Nation voters being hostile to both Labor and the Greens. The Centre Alliance only contested a few divisions and in all except Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie, its support collapsed due to Nick Xenophon no longer being a core part of the party (formerly the Nick Xenophon Team).
The Senate election revealed a further squeeze on parties outside the largest four i.e. the Liberals, Nationals, Labor and Greens. The Greens retained all six of their Senate seats up for election, but Labor and the Coalition won all the other Senate seats except for one in Queensland where One Nation's Malcolm Roberts was elected, and one in Tasmania where Jacqui Lambie was re-elected. Derryn Hinch and Fraser Anning were both roundly defeated, and Clive Palmer did not come close to being elected as a Senator. The Senate crossbench may be smaller but the Greens continue to hold the balance of power.
It was not as surprising a result as first thought; long-term political changes must be accounted for in elections as well. Opinion polling also needs a more balanced distribution of respondents; Scott Morrison attributed the victory to "quiet Australians" (voting is actually compulsory in Australia at all levels; it is those who do not regularly respond to opinion polls that he refers to)
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