On the 2019 Irish local elections and European elections in Ireland
I apologise for the delay in this post given that the Irish local elections took place three weeks ago alongside the election of their MEPs, but Single Transferable Vote counts take a long time to conclude. Also, a recount in the South (Ireland) European Parliament constituency, eventually dropped by Sinn Fein, forced a delay in the declaration there, and the South constituency had 20 rounds of counting in total.
The Irish Green Party made a European comeback, electing 2 MEPs, namely Ciaran Cuffe and Grace Sullivan; however in the Midlands-North West European constituency, the most socially conservative, Saoirse McHugh was eliminated on the 11th count, although Luke Flanagan won over some soft greens in Ireland due to his pro-legalisation of cannabis stance and being the most progressive Independent MEP in Ireland. Conversely, Sinn Fein experienced their worst ever election in modern Irish history, losing 2 MEPs; unsurprisingly it was the Midlands-North West constituency where their only MEP, Matt Carthy, was elected due to core support in Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan holding out. By contrast, their first preference vote was more than halved in Dublin. Fine Gael by contrast did much better, winning one of the extra shadow seats which cannot be occupied until the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, should it ever do so; one of the Fine Gael MEPs is former Tainiste (Deputy Prime Minister) Frances Fitzgerald (no relation to former Taiosaech, or Prime Minister of Ireland, Garret FitzGerald, just so we are clear). The other "shadow seat" was won by Fianna Fail, who have found themselves unable to recoup much of their lost vote;the Irish electorate are leaving them behind. The counties in in the South constituency contain most of their remaining core vote but even there their first preference vote dropped by a third from a total of 32% to 21.3%.
Labour, meanwhile, continue to dance on the brink of electoral oblivion in Ireland, and are polling 5% in Irish opinion polls, which could see them lose all their remaining Teachta Dailas (TDs, or deputies) in the next Irish general election. Not only did they fail to elect any MEPs, but only Alex White even received enough votes to claim back his election expenses. Independents 4 Change, originally a splinter group from the Solidarity-People Before Profit Alliance, have supplanted them in poorer areas of Ireland, and Mick Wallace and Clare Daly were elected as its first MEPs. This also meant a disastrous European Parliament election for the said Solidarity-People Before Profit Alliance, whose candidates all failed to win the right to claim their election expenses. As shown by the fact that unsuccessful European Parliament candidate Adrienne Wallace was elected as a councillor in Carlow the very same day, their support is concentrated in too few areas for them to have a chance of winning European Parliament seats in Ireland except in exceptional circumstances.
As for Independents, only the aforementioned Luke "Ming" Flanagan was elected. Notable failures amongst Independent candidates include Alice Higgins, daughter of current Irish President Michael Higgins, Ben Gilroy, former Direct Democracy Ireland leader (the official DDI candidates polled even worse than he did, ironically), Luke Ming's parliamentary assistant Diarmuid O'Flynn, and Dolores Cahill and Hermann Kelly, the leaders of the as yet unregistered Irish Freedom Party, which is attempting to become Ireland's answer to the Brexit Party. However, Ireland is one of the most pro-European member states and most of the Euroscepticism is from de facto Marxist parties like the aforementioned People Before Profit Alliance.
The local elections proved to be the best ever for the Irish Green Party, which as elsewhere in Europe was aided by declarations of climate emergencies internationally, the rising need to take action on man-made climate change, and the speeches of Greta Thunberg. Their seat total more than quadrupled from 12 to 49 in Irish councils. In Dublin, a Green councillor was elected in every single Local Electoral Area (LEA) except for Artane-Whitehall where there was no Green candidate, and they topped the poll in four. The reduction in the size of LEAs as recommended by the Irish Boundary Committee, meaning that each Irish council's LEA cannot be larger than seven seats, indirectly helped them rather than hindering them. If STV constituencies become too large, election counts will take too long to finish and they will end up covering too wide an area to retain the local link needed. All STV constituencies should be between five and seven seats in size; many LEAs in Irish councils had 10 seats in 2014. Green councillors were also elected in every LEA of Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, topping the poll in four of them, although it must be noted that Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown is well known as a wealthy progressive area of Ireland similar to Hampstead and Hornsey in London. They were less successful in the less affluent Fingal and South Dublin where the hardline socialist support is stronger but gained seats there as well. Outside (Greater) Dublin and Ireland's second largest city, Cork, which together elected three-fifths of all the Green councillors elected in the Republic of Ireland, the Irish Greens' support is much more limited; in the counties of Cavan, Donegal, Laois, Longford, and Roscommon they did not field any candidates at all, and they won only one seat apiece in many other counties of Ireland, losing a seat in Louth where Mark Dearey retired. They did however for the first time elect two councillors apiece in the cities of Limerick and Galway respectively, notable achievements given that Limerick and Galway are much more conservative politically than Dublin or Cork. However, the Greens have shown they can be elected in rural counties of Ireland, and it is rural livelihoods that are threatened most by man-made climate change and environmental damage.
Sinn Fein on the other hand lost nearly half their councillors, partly due to their current leader, Mary Lou McDonald, lacking the renown of Gerry Adams, and also due to increased internal ructions which have led a considerable number of Sinn Fein councillors to leave the party. Furthermore, Ireland's returning to prosperity is causing a decline in Sinn Fein support, and some of their protest vote has also gone to the Greens as well since Sinn Fein does not have a good voting record on climate change issues. Its losses in rural areas partly assisted in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail gaining councillors, 12 and 20 respectively, although it is already clear that neither of these traditional parties can ever dominate Irish politics again at any level. Labour performed better locally than at a European level, gaining 6 seats and returning to Cork City Council where in 2014 they suffered a spectacular wipe-out. At the same time, the Solidarity-People Before Profit Alliance was reduced to 11 seats, with only South Dublin electing more than two in any Irish council. Younger voters with radical views and greater awareness of environmental issues are switching to the Greens, so the Solidarity-People Before Profit Alliance's woes will likely continue in Ireland just as the Socialist Party in the Netherlands is being slowly replaced in its former strongholds by GroenLinks. The Social Democrats' debut in local elections, where they won 19 councillors in Ireland, was also a factor, with the "moderate left" transferring their later votes to them and back to Labour.
Smaller parties mainly relied on personal votes; the Workers' Party re-elected Ted Tynan to Cork but Eilis Ryan, a former Independent councillor who joined them in 2016 and was their candidate in Dublin Central in the general election the same year, was unseated in Dublin. Renua elected only one councillor, which surprisingly was in the rural county of Offaly; they originally split from the urbane, neoliberal Fine Gael. Aontu, a splinter from Sinn Fein notable for strongly opposing abortion, won its first three councillors, mainly in Sinn Fein strongholds surrounding Northern Ireland. The Independents 4 Change group won a seat in Sligo as well as one apiece in Dublin and Fingal, proving that its socialist stance can work outside Dublin, although Sligo is relatively poor by the standards of industrial Irish towns and has a significant socialist voter base. As for Independent candidates, Tipperary proportionally and in absolute terms elected the most, with 15 councillors out of 40 in County Tipperary being Independent. Conversely, the counties of Cavan and Kilkenny elected just a single Independent councillor each. In Galway, Pat Feeney set a new electoral low in Irish electoral history by polling just 1 vote in the LEA of Galway Central; the same Pat Feeney also received the lowest 1st preference votes, 22, in the Irish general election of 2016.
The rise of the Greens in Ireland comes at a more crucial time than ever before. Island nations are the most vulnerable to global warming and sea level rises, and Ireland is no exception in this regard.
The Irish Green Party made a European comeback, electing 2 MEPs, namely Ciaran Cuffe and Grace Sullivan; however in the Midlands-North West European constituency, the most socially conservative, Saoirse McHugh was eliminated on the 11th count, although Luke Flanagan won over some soft greens in Ireland due to his pro-legalisation of cannabis stance and being the most progressive Independent MEP in Ireland. Conversely, Sinn Fein experienced their worst ever election in modern Irish history, losing 2 MEPs; unsurprisingly it was the Midlands-North West constituency where their only MEP, Matt Carthy, was elected due to core support in Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan holding out. By contrast, their first preference vote was more than halved in Dublin. Fine Gael by contrast did much better, winning one of the extra shadow seats which cannot be occupied until the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, should it ever do so; one of the Fine Gael MEPs is former Tainiste (Deputy Prime Minister) Frances Fitzgerald (no relation to former Taiosaech, or Prime Minister of Ireland, Garret FitzGerald, just so we are clear). The other "shadow seat" was won by Fianna Fail, who have found themselves unable to recoup much of their lost vote;the Irish electorate are leaving them behind. The counties in in the South constituency contain most of their remaining core vote but even there their first preference vote dropped by a third from a total of 32% to 21.3%.
Labour, meanwhile, continue to dance on the brink of electoral oblivion in Ireland, and are polling 5% in Irish opinion polls, which could see them lose all their remaining Teachta Dailas (TDs, or deputies) in the next Irish general election. Not only did they fail to elect any MEPs, but only Alex White even received enough votes to claim back his election expenses. Independents 4 Change, originally a splinter group from the Solidarity-People Before Profit Alliance, have supplanted them in poorer areas of Ireland, and Mick Wallace and Clare Daly were elected as its first MEPs. This also meant a disastrous European Parliament election for the said Solidarity-People Before Profit Alliance, whose candidates all failed to win the right to claim their election expenses. As shown by the fact that unsuccessful European Parliament candidate Adrienne Wallace was elected as a councillor in Carlow the very same day, their support is concentrated in too few areas for them to have a chance of winning European Parliament seats in Ireland except in exceptional circumstances.
As for Independents, only the aforementioned Luke "Ming" Flanagan was elected. Notable failures amongst Independent candidates include Alice Higgins, daughter of current Irish President Michael Higgins, Ben Gilroy, former Direct Democracy Ireland leader (the official DDI candidates polled even worse than he did, ironically), Luke Ming's parliamentary assistant Diarmuid O'Flynn, and Dolores Cahill and Hermann Kelly, the leaders of the as yet unregistered Irish Freedom Party, which is attempting to become Ireland's answer to the Brexit Party. However, Ireland is one of the most pro-European member states and most of the Euroscepticism is from de facto Marxist parties like the aforementioned People Before Profit Alliance.
The local elections proved to be the best ever for the Irish Green Party, which as elsewhere in Europe was aided by declarations of climate emergencies internationally, the rising need to take action on man-made climate change, and the speeches of Greta Thunberg. Their seat total more than quadrupled from 12 to 49 in Irish councils. In Dublin, a Green councillor was elected in every single Local Electoral Area (LEA) except for Artane-Whitehall where there was no Green candidate, and they topped the poll in four. The reduction in the size of LEAs as recommended by the Irish Boundary Committee, meaning that each Irish council's LEA cannot be larger than seven seats, indirectly helped them rather than hindering them. If STV constituencies become too large, election counts will take too long to finish and they will end up covering too wide an area to retain the local link needed. All STV constituencies should be between five and seven seats in size; many LEAs in Irish councils had 10 seats in 2014. Green councillors were also elected in every LEA of Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, topping the poll in four of them, although it must be noted that Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown is well known as a wealthy progressive area of Ireland similar to Hampstead and Hornsey in London. They were less successful in the less affluent Fingal and South Dublin where the hardline socialist support is stronger but gained seats there as well. Outside (Greater) Dublin and Ireland's second largest city, Cork, which together elected three-fifths of all the Green councillors elected in the Republic of Ireland, the Irish Greens' support is much more limited; in the counties of Cavan, Donegal, Laois, Longford, and Roscommon they did not field any candidates at all, and they won only one seat apiece in many other counties of Ireland, losing a seat in Louth where Mark Dearey retired. They did however for the first time elect two councillors apiece in the cities of Limerick and Galway respectively, notable achievements given that Limerick and Galway are much more conservative politically than Dublin or Cork. However, the Greens have shown they can be elected in rural counties of Ireland, and it is rural livelihoods that are threatened most by man-made climate change and environmental damage.
Sinn Fein on the other hand lost nearly half their councillors, partly due to their current leader, Mary Lou McDonald, lacking the renown of Gerry Adams, and also due to increased internal ructions which have led a considerable number of Sinn Fein councillors to leave the party. Furthermore, Ireland's returning to prosperity is causing a decline in Sinn Fein support, and some of their protest vote has also gone to the Greens as well since Sinn Fein does not have a good voting record on climate change issues. Its losses in rural areas partly assisted in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail gaining councillors, 12 and 20 respectively, although it is already clear that neither of these traditional parties can ever dominate Irish politics again at any level. Labour performed better locally than at a European level, gaining 6 seats and returning to Cork City Council where in 2014 they suffered a spectacular wipe-out. At the same time, the Solidarity-People Before Profit Alliance was reduced to 11 seats, with only South Dublin electing more than two in any Irish council. Younger voters with radical views and greater awareness of environmental issues are switching to the Greens, so the Solidarity-People Before Profit Alliance's woes will likely continue in Ireland just as the Socialist Party in the Netherlands is being slowly replaced in its former strongholds by GroenLinks. The Social Democrats' debut in local elections, where they won 19 councillors in Ireland, was also a factor, with the "moderate left" transferring their later votes to them and back to Labour.
Smaller parties mainly relied on personal votes; the Workers' Party re-elected Ted Tynan to Cork but Eilis Ryan, a former Independent councillor who joined them in 2016 and was their candidate in Dublin Central in the general election the same year, was unseated in Dublin. Renua elected only one councillor, which surprisingly was in the rural county of Offaly; they originally split from the urbane, neoliberal Fine Gael. Aontu, a splinter from Sinn Fein notable for strongly opposing abortion, won its first three councillors, mainly in Sinn Fein strongholds surrounding Northern Ireland. The Independents 4 Change group won a seat in Sligo as well as one apiece in Dublin and Fingal, proving that its socialist stance can work outside Dublin, although Sligo is relatively poor by the standards of industrial Irish towns and has a significant socialist voter base. As for Independent candidates, Tipperary proportionally and in absolute terms elected the most, with 15 councillors out of 40 in County Tipperary being Independent. Conversely, the counties of Cavan and Kilkenny elected just a single Independent councillor each. In Galway, Pat Feeney set a new electoral low in Irish electoral history by polling just 1 vote in the LEA of Galway Central; the same Pat Feeney also received the lowest 1st preference votes, 22, in the Irish general election of 2016.
The rise of the Greens in Ireland comes at a more crucial time than ever before. Island nations are the most vulnerable to global warming and sea level rises, and Ireland is no exception in this regard.
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