My analysis of by-elections from 20/6/19
Readers, the results of by-elections and deferred elections which took place on 20 June 2019 are as follows:
(by-elections):
Isle of Wight UA, Whippingham & Osborne: Conservative 318 (35.1%, +9.3%), Liberal Democrats 179 (19.8%, +14.5%), Independent (Paler) 167 (18.4%), Labour 141 (15.6%, +3.5%), Island Independent 60 (6.6%), UKIP 41 (4.5%). Conservative gain from Independent.
Merton LBC, Cannon Hill: Liberal Democrats 1060 (35.0%, +25.5%), Labour 875 (28.9%, -14.9%), Conservative 867 (28.6%, -14.1%), Green 158 (5.2%), UKIP 68 (2.2%, -1.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Pelenna: Independent (Hurley) 251 (47.8%), Plaid Cymru 120 (22.9%, -5.3%), Independent (Hughes) 105 (20.0%, -4.3%), Labour 43 (8.2%, -11.0%), Liberal Democrats 6 (1.1%). Independent gain from other Independent.
Wandsworth LBC, Furzedown: Labour 1811 (49.0%, -15.5%), Liberal Democrats 887 (24.0%, +19.7%), Conservative 681 (18.4%, -2.8%), Green 318 (8.6%, -1.5%).
(deferred elections):
Forest of Dean DC, Newent & Taynton: Independents (Gooch/Wood/Holmes) 551/175/170 (21.2%), Liberal Democrats 462/423/266 (27.2%), Conservative 404/392/217 (24.0%), Green 306/282/251 (19.8%), Labour 110 (7.8%). One Independent and two Liberal Democrats elected for deferred election in new ward; vote shares are averages.
Salford MBC, Walken South: Labour 802 (39.5%, +1.6%), Conservative 654 (32.2%, -9.4%), Green 254 (12.5%, +7.9%), Liberal Democrats 173 (8.5%), UKIP 148 (7.3%, -7.1%). Labour gain from Conservative.
South Ribble DC, Farington West: Conservative 517 (62.4%, +10.4%), Labour 209 (25.2%, -10.1%), Liberal Democrats 103 (12.4%, -0.3%). Votes are averaged since each party fielded two candidates in this deferred election.
In the Isle of Wight and Neath Port Talbot, personality politics dominated in very marginal rural wards; the winner in Pelenna was the Plaid Cymru candidate for the same ward in 2017 where he lost by one vote. The Independent who came a close third still came third, but this time with fewer than half the votes of the winner.
In both by-elections which took place in Greater London, the Remain protest vote helped achieve the first ever Liberal Democrat win in Cannon Hill, once a safe Conservative ward which was a surprise Labour gain in 2014, partly due to young professionals flocking to the area as older homeowners retire to the southern shires. Their impressive 17.6% swing in safely Labour Furzedown is also a sign that Labour's divisions over Britain's fate in the EU continue to plague them as Brexit looms closer and closer. By contrast, in Pelenna, the Liberal Democrats polled just 6 votes, which even during the coalition years was a low for them anywhere, due to Independents dominating the contest as so often happens in rural/small town Wales. Furthermore, the Brexit effect actually helped the Conservatives in Farington, Lancashire, especially in the absence of opposition candidates other than Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
Despite the excellent Green success in the Forest of Dean last month, where they won 6 seats and overtook Labour in a former mining and ironworking area, the Green Party failed to win any of the three seats in the new Newent & Taynton ward, two of which surprisingly went to the Liberal Democrats. Like Stroud, the Forest of Dean's rural Green strength is not Liberal Democrat inclined, and nor is the Forest of Dean a strong Remain area by any measure, but the personal vote of the successful Independent proved to be a factor in this result.
Meanwhile, Labour's recapture of Walkden South ward was a foregone conclusion, especially with the Conservatives losing so many of the suburban voters they had won under David Cameron; the impressive Green result in one of only two Labour-Conservative marginal wards in Salford is another indicator of increasing awareness of the need to tackle environmental issues like air pollution.
(by-elections):
Isle of Wight UA, Whippingham & Osborne: Conservative 318 (35.1%, +9.3%), Liberal Democrats 179 (19.8%, +14.5%), Independent (Paler) 167 (18.4%), Labour 141 (15.6%, +3.5%), Island Independent 60 (6.6%), UKIP 41 (4.5%). Conservative gain from Independent.
Merton LBC, Cannon Hill: Liberal Democrats 1060 (35.0%, +25.5%), Labour 875 (28.9%, -14.9%), Conservative 867 (28.6%, -14.1%), Green 158 (5.2%), UKIP 68 (2.2%, -1.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Pelenna: Independent (Hurley) 251 (47.8%), Plaid Cymru 120 (22.9%, -5.3%), Independent (Hughes) 105 (20.0%, -4.3%), Labour 43 (8.2%, -11.0%), Liberal Democrats 6 (1.1%). Independent gain from other Independent.
Wandsworth LBC, Furzedown: Labour 1811 (49.0%, -15.5%), Liberal Democrats 887 (24.0%, +19.7%), Conservative 681 (18.4%, -2.8%), Green 318 (8.6%, -1.5%).
(deferred elections):
Forest of Dean DC, Newent & Taynton: Independents (Gooch/Wood/Holmes) 551/175/170 (21.2%), Liberal Democrats 462/423/266 (27.2%), Conservative 404/392/217 (24.0%), Green 306/282/251 (19.8%), Labour 110 (7.8%). One Independent and two Liberal Democrats elected for deferred election in new ward; vote shares are averages.
Salford MBC, Walken South: Labour 802 (39.5%, +1.6%), Conservative 654 (32.2%, -9.4%), Green 254 (12.5%, +7.9%), Liberal Democrats 173 (8.5%), UKIP 148 (7.3%, -7.1%). Labour gain from Conservative.
South Ribble DC, Farington West: Conservative 517 (62.4%, +10.4%), Labour 209 (25.2%, -10.1%), Liberal Democrats 103 (12.4%, -0.3%). Votes are averaged since each party fielded two candidates in this deferred election.
In the Isle of Wight and Neath Port Talbot, personality politics dominated in very marginal rural wards; the winner in Pelenna was the Plaid Cymru candidate for the same ward in 2017 where he lost by one vote. The Independent who came a close third still came third, but this time with fewer than half the votes of the winner.
In both by-elections which took place in Greater London, the Remain protest vote helped achieve the first ever Liberal Democrat win in Cannon Hill, once a safe Conservative ward which was a surprise Labour gain in 2014, partly due to young professionals flocking to the area as older homeowners retire to the southern shires. Their impressive 17.6% swing in safely Labour Furzedown is also a sign that Labour's divisions over Britain's fate in the EU continue to plague them as Brexit looms closer and closer. By contrast, in Pelenna, the Liberal Democrats polled just 6 votes, which even during the coalition years was a low for them anywhere, due to Independents dominating the contest as so often happens in rural/small town Wales. Furthermore, the Brexit effect actually helped the Conservatives in Farington, Lancashire, especially in the absence of opposition candidates other than Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
Despite the excellent Green success in the Forest of Dean last month, where they won 6 seats and overtook Labour in a former mining and ironworking area, the Green Party failed to win any of the three seats in the new Newent & Taynton ward, two of which surprisingly went to the Liberal Democrats. Like Stroud, the Forest of Dean's rural Green strength is not Liberal Democrat inclined, and nor is the Forest of Dean a strong Remain area by any measure, but the personal vote of the successful Independent proved to be a factor in this result.
Meanwhile, Labour's recapture of Walkden South ward was a foregone conclusion, especially with the Conservatives losing so many of the suburban voters they had won under David Cameron; the impressive Green result in one of only two Labour-Conservative marginal wards in Salford is another indicator of increasing awareness of the need to tackle environmental issues like air pollution.
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