My analysis of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of June 2019 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections, mainly deferred elections, from the first two weeks of June 2019 were as follows:

(6/6/19):

Herefordshire UA, Ross North: Liberal Democrats 547 (75.1%, +28.0%), Conservative 136 (18.7%, -34.1%), Labour 45 (6.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

South Staffordshire DC, Wombourne South West: Conservative 342 (61.5%), Green 90 (16.2%), Liberal Democrats 79 (14.2%), Labour 45 (8.1%). Votes are based on averages between the two candidates for parties who fielded two candidates in this deferred election.


(13/6/19):

Broxtowe BC, Stapleford South East: Liberal Democrats 549 (46.7%, +21.6%), Conservative 380 (30.3%, -1.1%), Labour 322 (23.0%, -3.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative x2 (deferred election; candidate votes on average)

North Devon DC, Chittlehampton: Conservative 323 (40.0%, +6.8%), Green 248 (30.7%, +20.0%), Liberal Democrats 221 (27.4%), Labour 16 (2.0%). Conservative gain from Independent [Independent and UKIP did not stand in this deferred election]

North Kesteven DC, Billinghay, Martin & North Kyme: Conservative 320 (48.4%), Lincolnshire Independent 160 (24.2%), Independent (Greetham) 72 (10.9%), Liberal Democrats 57 (8.6%), Labour 43 (6.5%), Independent (Shanahan-Kuth) 9 (1.4%). Conservative gain from Lincolnshire Independent.*

*This by-election happened because not only did the Lincolnshire Independents not defend their seat, but no other person in the entire North Kesteven district nominated themselves for the vacant seat.

The malaise of the Conservative continues even though Theresa May is no longer Prime Minister, culminating in a 31% swing from them to the Liberal Democrats in Ross North in southern Herefordshire, although they did capture Chittlehampton when no Independent came forward despite a strong Green effort; this meant that North Devon is still under no overall control and the Liberal Democrats will have to rely on a casting vote. Although the Greens did not win either of the district Wombourne seats, Claire McIlvenna compensated by being elected as a town councillor in Wombourne the same day. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrat gain in Stapleford was expected given the disappearance of the Stapleford Alliance, a splinter group from the Liberal Democrats and Broxtowe's comparatively pro-Remain stance compared to most of Nottinghamshire except West Bridgford.

North Kesteven's by-election highlighted the importance of good party organisation; had the Lincolnshire Independents defended the seat they, along with the Conservative candidate originally elected last month, would have been unopposed meaning this by-election would never have occurred. By failing to do so a Conservative gain proved easy even with the ongoing Conservative leadership election and continuing uncertainty for the United Kingdom.

As for the ongoing Conservative leadership election, I have little to say other than that it is almost a foregone conclusion at this stage, with Boris Johnson having a commanding plurality; even though he only secured the votes of 36.4% of Conservative MPs in the first ballot it is already clear that tactical voting is unlikely to stop him from reaching the final two. If he reaches the final two and faces the membership he will almost certainly win even though like Jeremy Corbyn he is very divisive-he may be liked by many Conservatives but he is also hated by many Conservatives, such that senior Conservative MPs publicly stated they wanted to stop him from becoming Conservative leader (and Prime Minister) even naming their plan "Operation Stop Boris": https://www.thenational.scot/news/17573365.tories-launch-stop-boris-johnson-campaign-amid-brexiteer-takeover-fears/

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