British local by-elections from the last two weeks of May 2019 and also other Belgian elections
Readers, only three local by-elections in Britain have occurred in the last two weeks, and they were easily overshadowed by the European elections. The results of these three local by-elections were as follows:
(23/05/19)
Neath Port Talbot UA, Resolven: Independent (Lewis) 699 (59.7%), Labour 293 (25.0%, -16.3%), Plaid Cymru 121 (10.3%, -13.4%), Conservative 34 (2.9%), Liberal Democrats 23 (2.0%). Independent gain from Labour. [Previous Independent did not stand]
Tendring DC, St Osyth (deferred election from 2 May): Independent (Talbot) 856, /Independent (White) 850 (58.3%), Conservative 437/430 (29.6%), Labour 177 (12.1%). Vote comparisons are not possible as this deferred election was for a new ward created in boundary changes.
(30/05/19)
Gosport BC, Brockhurst: Liberal Democrats 488 (51.5%, +10.3%), Conservative 214 (22.6%, -12.2%), British Union & Sovereignty Party 165 (17.4%), Labour 80 (8.4%, -4.7%). All changes are since May 2018.
Personality politics (as opposed to party politics) is becoming more prominent in Britain especially at a local level; even though both the by-elections of 23 May coincided with European elections this did not prevent Independents from easily winning both, although it is clear voters voting for the Brexit Party at a European level may have voted for these Independents at a local level in protest against the two-party machine. Meanwhile in Gosport, the British Union & Sovereignty Party candidate had been the Conservative candidate in 2018; his candidature significantly split the Conservative vote although the Conservatives had just experienced their worst ever drubbing in the European elections a week earlier, enabling an easy Liberal Democrat hold.
Crossing the Channel, Belgium experienced a sharp turn towards more forward-thinking and radical parties at election time, especially in French-speaking Wallonia. Both Green Parties made significant gains in this election, although Ecolo made a greater surge partly because they had lost many seats in 2014; however, Wallonia is also poorer than Flanders and therefore would be more adversely affected by man-made climate change and other environmental damage. The total number of Green seats shot up from 12 to 21 across Belgium. The most extreme parties, the Marxist Workers' Party of Belgium and the extreme nationalist Vlaams Belang, made strong gains at this election at well, with the Workers' Party sextupling their MPs from 2 to 12 and Vlaams Belang also sextupling their MPs, from 3 to 18. Conversely, the French-speaking counterpart to Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest), the People's Party, lost its only seat. The New Flemish Alliance and the Christian Democrats lost 8 seats and 6 seats respectively mainly as a result of Vlaams Belang's revival but also due to Belgians turning against establishment parties, although the New Flemish Alliance still finished first with 25 seats. Both Socialist Parties meanwhile lost considerable numbers of seats to the Workers' Party, although the ever-dominant Parti Socialiste in Wallonia remained the most popular party there, partly due to the main opposition party in Wallonia, Mouvement Reformateur, losing seats as well.
The regional elections of Belgium revealed how stark the political divide is in Belgium even when it comes to turning against the centrist status quo. In the Flemish Parliament, the Workers' Party doubled their votes to help them cross the 5% threshold, but they only won 4 seats; they managed 10 in Wallonia, an increase of 8 from 2014, and a total of 11 in Brussels, 10 from the French-speaking electorate but only 1 from the Dutch-speaking electorate in Brussels. The Greens only increased their seats by 4 in Flanders, but increased their seats by 8 in Wallonia and won a total of 19 in Brussels, topping the poll amongst the Dutch-speaking community and finishing a good second amongst the French-speaking community; only 1 behind the Socialists' combined total (Socialist Party Different and Parti Socialiste). Brussels was the only place where the New Flemish Alliance actually increased their support from 2014; meanwhile DeFI (Democratic Federalist Independent), whose main focus is representing the interests of French speakers in Brussels, retained its 10 seats despite enduring a 1% decrease in its vote share. All the "establishment" parties in Brussels lost seats, with the liberal Open VLD list losing 2 of its 5 seats; despite Ecolo's and the Workers' Party's surge in Brussels Parti Socialiste still finished first, albeit with only 22% of the vote amongst the French-speaking community in Brussels. PS has become increasingly clientelist in the manner of many metropolitan Labour-dominated councils in Britain, but this time they can be ousted from power in Wallonia and Brussels (in Flanders their counterparts, Socialist Party Different, finished sixth and will only be junior partners of a coalition at most) at long last even if as many as four parties are needed for a viable coalition.
Among the smaller parties, only the Animal Rights Party, DierAnimal, registered a remotely notable vote share, 0.7% across Belgium. The Pirate Party, meanwhile, lost two-thirds of its already weak support across all communities. It was the Turquoise Party that received the wooden spoon in Belgium, with only 626 votes. Even though it only submitted a list in one Belgian constituency, that is still a derisory vote.
The German-speaking Parliament, one of the smallest regional parliaments in the world with a registered electorate of less than 50,000, smaller than nearly every local council area in the United Kingdom, experienced comparatively little change at all. The more liberal parties, Ecolo and Vivant, gained a seat each, whilst the Christian Social Party lost one and lost pole position to the more regionalist ProDG, albeit only by 0.19%. Freedom and Progress also lost one seat but its support held up better than its Flemish and Walloon counterparts. Being a small community with considerable autonomy, it enjoys relative stability and prosperity in Belgium, rare things indeed.
(23/05/19)
Neath Port Talbot UA, Resolven: Independent (Lewis) 699 (59.7%), Labour 293 (25.0%, -16.3%), Plaid Cymru 121 (10.3%, -13.4%), Conservative 34 (2.9%), Liberal Democrats 23 (2.0%). Independent gain from Labour. [Previous Independent did not stand]
Tendring DC, St Osyth (deferred election from 2 May): Independent (Talbot) 856, /Independent (White) 850 (58.3%), Conservative 437/430 (29.6%), Labour 177 (12.1%). Vote comparisons are not possible as this deferred election was for a new ward created in boundary changes.
(30/05/19)
Gosport BC, Brockhurst: Liberal Democrats 488 (51.5%, +10.3%), Conservative 214 (22.6%, -12.2%), British Union & Sovereignty Party 165 (17.4%), Labour 80 (8.4%, -4.7%). All changes are since May 2018.
Personality politics (as opposed to party politics) is becoming more prominent in Britain especially at a local level; even though both the by-elections of 23 May coincided with European elections this did not prevent Independents from easily winning both, although it is clear voters voting for the Brexit Party at a European level may have voted for these Independents at a local level in protest against the two-party machine. Meanwhile in Gosport, the British Union & Sovereignty Party candidate had been the Conservative candidate in 2018; his candidature significantly split the Conservative vote although the Conservatives had just experienced their worst ever drubbing in the European elections a week earlier, enabling an easy Liberal Democrat hold.
Crossing the Channel, Belgium experienced a sharp turn towards more forward-thinking and radical parties at election time, especially in French-speaking Wallonia. Both Green Parties made significant gains in this election, although Ecolo made a greater surge partly because they had lost many seats in 2014; however, Wallonia is also poorer than Flanders and therefore would be more adversely affected by man-made climate change and other environmental damage. The total number of Green seats shot up from 12 to 21 across Belgium. The most extreme parties, the Marxist Workers' Party of Belgium and the extreme nationalist Vlaams Belang, made strong gains at this election at well, with the Workers' Party sextupling their MPs from 2 to 12 and Vlaams Belang also sextupling their MPs, from 3 to 18. Conversely, the French-speaking counterpart to Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest), the People's Party, lost its only seat. The New Flemish Alliance and the Christian Democrats lost 8 seats and 6 seats respectively mainly as a result of Vlaams Belang's revival but also due to Belgians turning against establishment parties, although the New Flemish Alliance still finished first with 25 seats. Both Socialist Parties meanwhile lost considerable numbers of seats to the Workers' Party, although the ever-dominant Parti Socialiste in Wallonia remained the most popular party there, partly due to the main opposition party in Wallonia, Mouvement Reformateur, losing seats as well.
The regional elections of Belgium revealed how stark the political divide is in Belgium even when it comes to turning against the centrist status quo. In the Flemish Parliament, the Workers' Party doubled their votes to help them cross the 5% threshold, but they only won 4 seats; they managed 10 in Wallonia, an increase of 8 from 2014, and a total of 11 in Brussels, 10 from the French-speaking electorate but only 1 from the Dutch-speaking electorate in Brussels. The Greens only increased their seats by 4 in Flanders, but increased their seats by 8 in Wallonia and won a total of 19 in Brussels, topping the poll amongst the Dutch-speaking community and finishing a good second amongst the French-speaking community; only 1 behind the Socialists' combined total (Socialist Party Different and Parti Socialiste). Brussels was the only place where the New Flemish Alliance actually increased their support from 2014; meanwhile DeFI (Democratic Federalist Independent), whose main focus is representing the interests of French speakers in Brussels, retained its 10 seats despite enduring a 1% decrease in its vote share. All the "establishment" parties in Brussels lost seats, with the liberal Open VLD list losing 2 of its 5 seats; despite Ecolo's and the Workers' Party's surge in Brussels Parti Socialiste still finished first, albeit with only 22% of the vote amongst the French-speaking community in Brussels. PS has become increasingly clientelist in the manner of many metropolitan Labour-dominated councils in Britain, but this time they can be ousted from power in Wallonia and Brussels (in Flanders their counterparts, Socialist Party Different, finished sixth and will only be junior partners of a coalition at most) at long last even if as many as four parties are needed for a viable coalition.
Among the smaller parties, only the Animal Rights Party, DierAnimal, registered a remotely notable vote share, 0.7% across Belgium. The Pirate Party, meanwhile, lost two-thirds of its already weak support across all communities. It was the Turquoise Party that received the wooden spoon in Belgium, with only 626 votes. Even though it only submitted a list in one Belgian constituency, that is still a derisory vote.
The German-speaking Parliament, one of the smallest regional parliaments in the world with a registered electorate of less than 50,000, smaller than nearly every local council area in the United Kingdom, experienced comparatively little change at all. The more liberal parties, Ecolo and Vivant, gained a seat each, whilst the Christian Social Party lost one and lost pole position to the more regionalist ProDG, albeit only by 0.19%. Freedom and Progress also lost one seat but its support held up better than its Flemish and Walloon counterparts. Being a small community with considerable autonomy, it enjoys relative stability and prosperity in Belgium, rare things indeed.
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