The British local elections of 2019, part 1: The rolling Green wave washed over notion of two-party politics
Without a doubt, the biggest sensation of the British local elections of 2019, where 248 councils including new councils created from mergers were up for election, was a new Green surge that resulted in net Green gains of 194 (notionally 188 accounting for the considerable number of councils experiencing boundary changes and the introduction of new councils), by far the highest in British history.
I was a Green Party candidate myself at this election, in the affluent suburban ward of Hanford & Trentham in Stoke-on-Trent and the first ever Green Party candidate to stand there; however I was not among the Green candidates elected today. Green breakthroughs occurred all across England, from councils stretching from West Devon to Thanet to Eden. Green surges were even larger than first predicted in councils with significant Green groups; Mid Suffolk more than doubled its Green councillors to 12 and as many as 10 Green councillors were elected in Mendip. The biggest new breakthrough for the Green Party was in Folkestone & Hythe, where 6 Green councillors were elected.
What must be mentioned is that the majority of Green gains of council seats were south of a line stretching from the Wash to the Bristol Channel, covering what can be regarded as the south of England. This is how they were distributed:
East Midlands: 10 Green gains.
East of England: 36 Green gains (two Green losses)
North East England: 4 Green gains.
North West England: 18 Green gains (two Green losses)
South East England: 63 Green gains.
South West England: 30 Green gains (three Green losses)
West Midlands: 30 Green gains.
Yorkshire & The Humber: 5 Green gains (one Green loss)
The three regions comprising the "south" thus accounted for 70% of all Green gains in councils across England despite accounting for only 30.5% of all British parliamentary constituencies. A large proportion of these Green gains were in rural districts however, especially those normally regarded as safely Conservative. Today alone the Green Party more than doubled their councillor numbers to 371 across England and Wales.
The Conservatives suffered even higher losses than initially predicted earlier this week. The Conservatives' net losses were as high as 1,334, the vast majority in the south of England. Most notably, they lost control of Arun and Cheshire East councils (Cheshire East includes Macclesfield, which was under majority Conservative control throughout its entire existence until its abolition in 2009) for the first time ever, and five Conservative council leaders lost their own seats. In the Midlands and North, they fared better but still suffered many losses. Their historic gains of North East Derbyshire, North East Lincolnshire and Walsall, as well as their historic high of 15 seats in Stoke-on-Trent, are more indicative of demographic changes than anything else; all are former industrial towns increasingly populated by local conservatives on modest incomes who felt left behind by the EU and who have been let down by out of touch and incompetent past Labour administrations in those areas. In areas where they were expected to poll well, however, such as Basildon, Bassetlaw, Tendring, and Thanet, they in fact lost many seats due to a failure to even find an agreeable Brexit deal and continued internal chaos. Even in councils where they retained control they often lost 10 or more seats, such as in East Hertfordshire where I grew up.
Labour's indecision on Brexit also cost it many seats, especially in its northern metropolitan heartlands. The first council to finish counting, Sunderland, noted a Labour loss of 12 seats, and despite being the official opposition they made a loss of 82 seats, and the only councils they gained were Amber Valley, Gravesham, High Peak, and Trafford, although they are now the largest party in the political barometer that is Milton Keynes.. Like the Conservatives, their heaviest losses came in councils whose seats were all up for election as opposed to councils electing by thirds; they retained control of Cambridge but were relegated to second party in York behind the Liberal Democrats, as a comparison. They avoided losing largest party status in Brighton & Hove only by winning enough seats from the Conservatives. However, Labour surprisingly re-entered affluent rural councils like Malvern Hills albeit with just one seat.
Many of the councils up for election last held elections simultaneously with the 2015 general election, which indirectly benefitted the Conservatives and Labour and resulted in Liberal Democrat wipe-outs in many areas. Unsurprisingly, the Liberal Democrats made sweeping gains across the board, more than doubling their council numbers from 2015, although as with the Green Party the south of England saw many more sweeping gains than the north. They won Bath & North East Somerset for the very first time; due to the natural demographic divisions between the Bath and North East Somerset parts it can normally only return either a Conservative majority or no overall control. Every council with full council elections they had lost in 2015 they recaptured this year. They also became the largest party on councils such as Mendip and South Oxfordshire, although West Berkshire evaded them despite having a strong Remain vote similar to that of the former two. Their only notable losses were their remaining councillors in Ashford and Ashfield (caused by the Ashfield Independents) and in Sefton wards comprising the constituency of Southport, as did happen in 2018.
Despite expectations they would gain as a result of Conservative failure to deliver Brexit, UKIP lost all but 20 seats, mainly because UKIP had collapsed as a party following Brexit leaving many of their seats undefended. Large numbers of former UKIP councillors were re-elected under different banners, especially independent groups in Thanet and Thurrock. Although their main splinter group, the Brexit Party, did not register in time for these elections, news of the split caused them to fail to capitalise on delays to Brexit. Only in Wyre, Lancashire, did UKIP make any significant inroads; Wyre in fact provided 1/5 of all UKIP councillors elected.
Amongst other parties, Residents' Associations gained Uttlesford convincingly and the Independent East Devon Alliance gained East Devon, which bodes well for Claire Wright, who has finished second to Hugo Swire in the East Devon constituency twice. The continuity Liberals only gained seats in Liverpool and Ryedale, losing their remaining councillors everywhere else. Even though Dr Richard Taylor has left the political scene, the Independent Community & Health Concern group revived in Wyre Forest, helping to deprive the Conservatives of control. The Ashfield Independents nearly obliterated Labour in Ashfield, but nearby the similar Mansfield Independents could only secure largest party status and the incumbent Mansfield Independents mayor, Kate Allsop, lost to Labour's Andy Abrahams by just two votes in the runoff. The City Independents meanwhile fared better in Stoke-on-Trent than expected but were nevertheless pushed into third place by the Conservatives, despite only having four seats less than Labour. Residents' Associations polled well in Surrey but only Epsom & Ewell's long standing RA was able to gain a majority, and they have governed Epsom & Ewell council (and its predecessor, Epsom & Ewell UDC) since 1937. The Yorkshire Party won district council seats for the first time, in rural Richmondshire and coastal Bridlington in the East Riding.Both the Women's Equality Party and Socialist Alternative (fka TUSC) failed to win any seats at all; and only three seats were gained by the few candidates for the largest two Brexit splinter parties, with one Democrats & Veterans gain in Barnsley, one For Britain gain in Epping Forest, and one For Britain gain in Hartlepool.
I was a Green Party candidate myself at this election, in the affluent suburban ward of Hanford & Trentham in Stoke-on-Trent and the first ever Green Party candidate to stand there; however I was not among the Green candidates elected today. Green breakthroughs occurred all across England, from councils stretching from West Devon to Thanet to Eden. Green surges were even larger than first predicted in councils with significant Green groups; Mid Suffolk more than doubled its Green councillors to 12 and as many as 10 Green councillors were elected in Mendip. The biggest new breakthrough for the Green Party was in Folkestone & Hythe, where 6 Green councillors were elected.
What must be mentioned is that the majority of Green gains of council seats were south of a line stretching from the Wash to the Bristol Channel, covering what can be regarded as the south of England. This is how they were distributed:
East Midlands: 10 Green gains.
East of England: 36 Green gains (two Green losses)
North East England: 4 Green gains.
North West England: 18 Green gains (two Green losses)
South East England: 63 Green gains.
South West England: 30 Green gains (three Green losses)
West Midlands: 30 Green gains.
Yorkshire & The Humber: 5 Green gains (one Green loss)
The three regions comprising the "south" thus accounted for 70% of all Green gains in councils across England despite accounting for only 30.5% of all British parliamentary constituencies. A large proportion of these Green gains were in rural districts however, especially those normally regarded as safely Conservative. Today alone the Green Party more than doubled their councillor numbers to 371 across England and Wales.
The Conservatives suffered even higher losses than initially predicted earlier this week. The Conservatives' net losses were as high as 1,334, the vast majority in the south of England. Most notably, they lost control of Arun and Cheshire East councils (Cheshire East includes Macclesfield, which was under majority Conservative control throughout its entire existence until its abolition in 2009) for the first time ever, and five Conservative council leaders lost their own seats. In the Midlands and North, they fared better but still suffered many losses. Their historic gains of North East Derbyshire, North East Lincolnshire and Walsall, as well as their historic high of 15 seats in Stoke-on-Trent, are more indicative of demographic changes than anything else; all are former industrial towns increasingly populated by local conservatives on modest incomes who felt left behind by the EU and who have been let down by out of touch and incompetent past Labour administrations in those areas. In areas where they were expected to poll well, however, such as Basildon, Bassetlaw, Tendring, and Thanet, they in fact lost many seats due to a failure to even find an agreeable Brexit deal and continued internal chaos. Even in councils where they retained control they often lost 10 or more seats, such as in East Hertfordshire where I grew up.
Labour's indecision on Brexit also cost it many seats, especially in its northern metropolitan heartlands. The first council to finish counting, Sunderland, noted a Labour loss of 12 seats, and despite being the official opposition they made a loss of 82 seats, and the only councils they gained were Amber Valley, Gravesham, High Peak, and Trafford, although they are now the largest party in the political barometer that is Milton Keynes.. Like the Conservatives, their heaviest losses came in councils whose seats were all up for election as opposed to councils electing by thirds; they retained control of Cambridge but were relegated to second party in York behind the Liberal Democrats, as a comparison. They avoided losing largest party status in Brighton & Hove only by winning enough seats from the Conservatives. However, Labour surprisingly re-entered affluent rural councils like Malvern Hills albeit with just one seat.
Many of the councils up for election last held elections simultaneously with the 2015 general election, which indirectly benefitted the Conservatives and Labour and resulted in Liberal Democrat wipe-outs in many areas. Unsurprisingly, the Liberal Democrats made sweeping gains across the board, more than doubling their council numbers from 2015, although as with the Green Party the south of England saw many more sweeping gains than the north. They won Bath & North East Somerset for the very first time; due to the natural demographic divisions between the Bath and North East Somerset parts it can normally only return either a Conservative majority or no overall control. Every council with full council elections they had lost in 2015 they recaptured this year. They also became the largest party on councils such as Mendip and South Oxfordshire, although West Berkshire evaded them despite having a strong Remain vote similar to that of the former two. Their only notable losses were their remaining councillors in Ashford and Ashfield (caused by the Ashfield Independents) and in Sefton wards comprising the constituency of Southport, as did happen in 2018.
Despite expectations they would gain as a result of Conservative failure to deliver Brexit, UKIP lost all but 20 seats, mainly because UKIP had collapsed as a party following Brexit leaving many of their seats undefended. Large numbers of former UKIP councillors were re-elected under different banners, especially independent groups in Thanet and Thurrock. Although their main splinter group, the Brexit Party, did not register in time for these elections, news of the split caused them to fail to capitalise on delays to Brexit. Only in Wyre, Lancashire, did UKIP make any significant inroads; Wyre in fact provided 1/5 of all UKIP councillors elected.
Amongst other parties, Residents' Associations gained Uttlesford convincingly and the Independent East Devon Alliance gained East Devon, which bodes well for Claire Wright, who has finished second to Hugo Swire in the East Devon constituency twice. The continuity Liberals only gained seats in Liverpool and Ryedale, losing their remaining councillors everywhere else. Even though Dr Richard Taylor has left the political scene, the Independent Community & Health Concern group revived in Wyre Forest, helping to deprive the Conservatives of control. The Ashfield Independents nearly obliterated Labour in Ashfield, but nearby the similar Mansfield Independents could only secure largest party status and the incumbent Mansfield Independents mayor, Kate Allsop, lost to Labour's Andy Abrahams by just two votes in the runoff. The City Independents meanwhile fared better in Stoke-on-Trent than expected but were nevertheless pushed into third place by the Conservatives, despite only having four seats less than Labour. Residents' Associations polled well in Surrey but only Epsom & Ewell's long standing RA was able to gain a majority, and they have governed Epsom & Ewell council (and its predecessor, Epsom & Ewell UDC) since 1937. The Yorkshire Party won district council seats for the first time, in rural Richmondshire and coastal Bridlington in the East Riding.Both the Women's Equality Party and Socialist Alternative (fka TUSC) failed to win any seats at all; and only three seats were gained by the few candidates for the largest two Brexit splinter parties, with one Democrats & Veterans gain in Barnsley, one For Britain gain in Epping Forest, and one For Britain gain in Hartlepool.
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