The British local elections of 2019, part 2: Ulster shifts slowly from sectarianism

Over in Northern Ireland, which had Brexit happened may have united with the Republic of Ireland, local elections elected a greater number of non-sectarian (Alliance, Green etc.) councillors than ever before.

The Green Party wave was not nearly as strong in Northern Ireland as it was in England. This is not only due to the smaller size of Northern Ireland Green Party but also due to the Single Transferable Vote system making it necessary for them, and all other parties, to field fewer candidates than in a First Past the Post election. Nevertheless, the Green Party was able to win 4 seats in Belfast, retain their 3 in Ards and North Down, and win a seat in Lisburn & Castlereagh, giving them a total of 8, their highest total ever in Northern Ireland. It must nevertheless be remarked that all 8 NIGP councillors were elected in DEAs (District Electoral Areas) with unionist majorities.

The Alliance Party made considerable breakthroughs, especially in unionist strongholds like County Antrim and Craigavon and the rural nationalist council of Fermanagh & Omagh. However, the Alliance Party only holds the balance of power in Belfast in practice. They proportionally experienced the highest increase of 1st preference votes across Northern Ireland's local elections: +4.8%. In contrast to mainland Britain, the moderate pro-European UUP and SDLP lost seats across the board, with the pro-Brexit Sinn Fein, DUP and People Before Profit Alliance all gaining seats in terms of the unionist/nationalist divide. However, the Alliance proved adept at gaining soft unionist transfers, especially in Belfast where the UUP dropped from 7 seats to just 2, both in Belfast East's boundaries.  The Brexit issue clearly had a significant impact in Northern Ireland's elections, and the Alliance benefitted from it most even with the Alliance stronger in unionist areas which voted Leave, in contrast to nationalist communities mainly voting Remain.

Amongst smaller parties, PBP only won a seat in Belfast with the Traditional Unionist Voice, the most extreme of the unionist parties, only retaining two seats in Mid and East Antrim. The Popular Unionist Party, appealing primarily to working class unionist communities, retained its 2 seats but made no progress elsewhere. Belfast is gentrifying which can also account for the NIGP and Alliance gains in the city and outlying towns and suburbs thereof.
The pro-life Aontu ("unity" in Irish Gaelic) Party was the only new party to win a council seat, doing so in Derry & Strabane, the most socially conservative of the nationalist strongholds in Northern Ireland and still the SDLP's strongest support base. Like in the Republic of Ireland, the performance of independents depended on personal renown rather than individual policies-such is the way of elections operating under STV.


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