The 2019 European elections, part 3: Italy to Sweden
NB: Due to an earlier counting dispute in the Dublin European Parliament constituency in Ireland, and also Irish local elections, the Republic of Ireland's recent elections will be covered in a separate post.
Italy: Strong Euroscepticism remains the order of the day in Italy, with the Democratic Party being the only pro-European party to elect MEPs in Italy. The former Lega Nord, now simply called Lega given the votes it won in the south of Italy in last year's Italian general election, surged to victory with 29 MEPs, whilst the Democratic Party lost 12 MEPs and nearly half its 2014 vote. The Five Star Movement is becoming less worthy of its name, and it finished third with 14 MEPs; this is the first election of any type in Italy where it lost seats instead of gaining them, partly because it is the leading party of government and no longer a new protest movement. Forza Italia continued to slide, being reduced to 7 MEPs, losing votes to both Lega and the more conservative Brothers of Italy, which won 6 MEPs (the same number Forza Italia lost, not coincidentally); amazingly, FI is still led by Silvio Berlusconi even though he is barred from running for office. It was a bad night for progressive parties in Italy; the Green Europe coalition overtook The Left but did not cross the 4% threshold needed for MEPs. The Left slipped below it and lost all 3 MEPs; the Five Star Movement has won over considerable numbers of progressive movements despite being a big tent party in practice.
Latvia: Unlike most European countries, Latvia uses Sainte-League to determine which MEPs get elected, not d'Hondt; this is a necessity when Latvia only has 7 MEPs. The New Unity Party lost half its seats; the fact it remains part of the government despite having lost nearly 2/3 of its seats in 2018. Both Harmony and the national conservative National Alliance gained one seat each, as did the new Development For! party (a liberal pro-European party). The Union of Greens and Farmers was the biggest loser in this election, losing its only MEP; the fact its MEP, Iveta Grigule, defected to the ALDE group midway through the last European Parliament proved to be a fatal blow to its chances, even though the current President of Latvia, Raimonds Vejonis, is a member of that union and the first European head of state to be part of a green party.
Lithuania: The other Baltic nation followed a similar course in terms of results. However, its main national conservative party, Order and Justice, collapsed, securing only 2.6% of the vote and losing both MEPs. It has been leaking support back to the Homeland Union in the last five years and this carried over to this European election. Despite having convincingly won the Seimas election in 2016, the Lithuanian Peasant & Greens Union (closer to Finland's Centre Party, by the way, although it does espouse green politics) only won one extra MEP and finished third, although its vote nearly doubled compared to 2014. The Liberal Movement lost a seat partly due to the ongoing corruption case of former leader Eligijus Masiulis. The Lithuanian Green Party, more pro-European in line with many Green Parties in Europe, saw its vote drop to 2.1% partly due to the rise of the Lithuanian Peasant & Greens Union; green conservatism is stronger in the Baltic nations than anywhere else in Europe.
Luxembourg: The Green Party, Die Greng, experienced the Green Wave, polling 18.9% and very close behind the liberal Democratic Party and the conservative Christian Social People's Party, who polled 21.4% and 21.1% respectively. With only 6 MEPs elected in Luxembourg, many significant parties end up missing out on representation; the Alternative Democratic Reform Party narrowly missed out on an MEP. The Pirate Party and Die Lenk (the Left) also failed to elect an MEP despite polling otherwise respectable vote shares of 7.7% and 4.8%, building on progressive parties' successes in the 2018 Luxembourgian general election.
Malta: Little change ever happens here in European Parliament terms; Malta only has 6 MEPs and its STV system keeps the Labour and Nationalist Parties firmly in control, due to it being virtually impossible for anyone outside these parties to obtain enough first preference votes necessary to make it through all the counting stages. The main opposition party, the green-minded Democratic Alternative, slipped from third to fifth, behind the extreme nationalists Imperium Europa and the liberal pro-European Democratic Party. Labour won an extra MEP and the Nationalists lost one of their MEPs; otherwise nothing else of note happened in Malta's European election of 2019.
Netherlands: In line with the rest of the Green Wave, GreenLeft won another MEP, although its surge in support could not match that of the 2017 Dutch general election or the 2019 Dutch local elections. The Labour Party made a surprise comeback, doubling their 2014 vote and topping the poll with 6 MEPs. The Eurosceptic right saw a similar situation to Britain when the new Forum for Democracy eclipsed the Party for Freedom; FvD won 3 MEPs but finished fourth, and were nearly pushed into fifth by GreenLeft (GreenLeft were only 3,304 votes behind); PVV dropped to 3.5% and lost all their MEPs as a result of FvD's rise. Democrats66 were punished for propping up Mark Rutte's government, losing half of their MEPs; GreenLeft absorbed many of their voters since D66's vote is strongest amongst the Netherland's educated urbane population; the de facto "Orange Book" liberals, VVD, won some voters as well although the continuing decline of the Christian Democratic Appeal also indirectly aided VVD. 50PLUS gained its first MEP due to high personal support for its lead candidate; the Netherlands runs an open list meaning strong individual candidates can be elected even if their party's support is otherwise relatively low. The Socialist Party, in long-term decline in the Netherlands as its older support base dies off and as younger voters migrate to GreenLeft, lost both its MEPs and finished even behind PVV.
Poland: Coalitions are becoming increasingly necessary in Poland due to its particular electoral laws and a determination to thwart the hard conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS). As a result, a European Coalition was formed for this purpose, comprising a diverse range of parties including the Civic Platform, Modern, Democratic Left Alliance, the Polish Greens, and the Polish People's Party. However, Law and Justice still topped the poll with 45.4% of the vote and 27 MEPs, even when it is attracting considerable international criticism for its interference in democratic processes (e.g. the judiciary) whilst the European Coalition lost 6 seats compared to the totals of its component parties in 2014. Spring was the only other Polish party to win MEPs, winning 3 mainly from Democratic Left voters protesting against that party's participation in a broad European Coalition. The hard Eurosceptic alliance Confederation narrowly missed the 8% threshold for coalitions (which applies to European elections in Poland as well as its Sejm elections). Kukiz'15, which made its debut in 2015, failed to elect any MEPs either, and the Left Together coalition failed badly. Tactical voting against PiS (even though European elections are about sending delegations to the European Parliament, not forming any sort of administration) played some part in these elections, squeezing most smaller parties.
Portugal: There were considerable shifts between the socialists at this European election; the Left Bloc swapped places with the Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) which currently has a confidence and supply agreement with Portuguese PM Antonia Costa of the Socialist Party. The Left Bloc won an extra MEP, whereas the CDU lost one, and the Portuguese Greens did not elect MEPs within that bloc; PS won an extra MEP despite an increase of only 1.9% from 2014; this administration is relatively popular in Portugal at present. However, an EGP member, People-Animals-Nature, did elect an MEP with 5.1% of the vote, and the more genuinely green LIVRE list lost some of its support to PAN. Former Earth Party MEP Marinho e Pinto ran for the Democratic Republican Party, but fared disastrously with less than 0.5% of the vote. Right-wing populism found few friends in Portugal compared to the rest of Europe; the Basta coalition polled only 1.5%. The more extreme socialist parties in Portugal found their votes absorbed by the Left Bloc.
Romania: The anti-corruption Save Romania Union made the biggest surge in this election, increasing its MEPs to 8, equal to that of the Social Democrats and only 2 behind the National Liberals, who had absorbed another party, the Democratic Liberal Party, in November 2014. The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Romania (incidentally this is also the name of the European group of Liberals) lost both their MEPs due to the Save Romania Union's rise. The other parties each retained their two MEPs, although each lost a little support compared to 2014.
Slovakia: In 2014, Slovakia registered the lowest turnout in the European elections with just 13%. This time, higher international attention on these elections due to the impact of impending Brexit helped turnout rise to 22.7%, still very poor. The liberal-conservative Progressive Slovakia coalition came top of the poll, electing 4 MEPs to the Social Democrats' 3. Central and Eastern Europe is experiencing strong support for hardline nationalist parties, with the neo-fascist and antiziganist People's Party-Our Slovakia electing two MEPs and finishing third in the poll despite being so extreme in its nationalist outlook the Prosecutors' Office requested a court-ordered dissolution of People's Party-Our Slovakia on account of its fascist tendencies and the fact many of its members are Holocaust deniers; Holocaust denial is a crime in Slovakia, just like in Germany, Austria, Poland, and most other European countries. Meanwhile, the parties supporting ethnic minority rights in Slovakia, the Party of the Hungarian Community and Most-Hid, both lost their MEPs, in a bitter blow for equality and diversity in Slovakia.
Slovenia: The Slovenian Democratic Party and People's Party coalition actually increased their vote by 1.65% but lost an MEP due to a new party, the Marjan Sarec list, winning 2 MEPs; such is the way of d'Hondt since the ratios of votes between parties matter more significantly than in any other PR system. The Social Democrats gained an extra MEP; the Slovenian Democratic Party, which has been shifting closer to a Fidesz-like platform under Janesz Jansa, has lost many of its moderate supporters to the Marjan Sarec list. The Left narrowly missed out on a European seat despite its good performance in the Slovenian parliamentary elections last year, and the Slovenian Greens also missed the mark although this was their best European election in 15 years.
Spain: Spain's European results were relatively similar to those of its general election of last month, with the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party overtaking the People's Party for pole position; the Citizens' Party beat Podemos for third place and Vox made its European debut with 3 MEPs. As Spain uses a national list for electing MEPs it is more difficult for regional parties to acquire representation via European elections, although a progressive alliance of regional parties did elect 3 MEPs; however the ecosocialist Commitment to Europe list lost their seat.
Sweden: Sweden should have been a beneficiary of the Green Wave but unfortunately was not. Miljopartiet actually lost 2 MEPs, half of its 2014 contingent, despite its vote share only dropping 3.9% to 11.5%. However this meant it slipped from second to fourth place; the order in which parties finish is a critical factor in d'Hondt elections, especially with a relatively limited number of seats to go around (Sweden elects 20 MEPs). Its performance was nevertheless better than what opinion polls predicted. The Sweden Democrats, despite being predicted to finish second on the back of increasing opposition to further immigration in Sweden, instead finished third behind the Moderates and gained 3 MEPs to the Moderates' 4. The Feminist Initiative collapsed in this election the way it did in the last Swedish Riksdag election, dropping to 0.8% and losing its only MEP; the fact its founder, Gudrun Schyman, is no longer its leader played a part in this collapse, as did the perception it is becoming too radical for many progressive voters in Sweden.
Italy: Strong Euroscepticism remains the order of the day in Italy, with the Democratic Party being the only pro-European party to elect MEPs in Italy. The former Lega Nord, now simply called Lega given the votes it won in the south of Italy in last year's Italian general election, surged to victory with 29 MEPs, whilst the Democratic Party lost 12 MEPs and nearly half its 2014 vote. The Five Star Movement is becoming less worthy of its name, and it finished third with 14 MEPs; this is the first election of any type in Italy where it lost seats instead of gaining them, partly because it is the leading party of government and no longer a new protest movement. Forza Italia continued to slide, being reduced to 7 MEPs, losing votes to both Lega and the more conservative Brothers of Italy, which won 6 MEPs (the same number Forza Italia lost, not coincidentally); amazingly, FI is still led by Silvio Berlusconi even though he is barred from running for office. It was a bad night for progressive parties in Italy; the Green Europe coalition overtook The Left but did not cross the 4% threshold needed for MEPs. The Left slipped below it and lost all 3 MEPs; the Five Star Movement has won over considerable numbers of progressive movements despite being a big tent party in practice.
Latvia: Unlike most European countries, Latvia uses Sainte-League to determine which MEPs get elected, not d'Hondt; this is a necessity when Latvia only has 7 MEPs. The New Unity Party lost half its seats; the fact it remains part of the government despite having lost nearly 2/3 of its seats in 2018. Both Harmony and the national conservative National Alliance gained one seat each, as did the new Development For! party (a liberal pro-European party). The Union of Greens and Farmers was the biggest loser in this election, losing its only MEP; the fact its MEP, Iveta Grigule, defected to the ALDE group midway through the last European Parliament proved to be a fatal blow to its chances, even though the current President of Latvia, Raimonds Vejonis, is a member of that union and the first European head of state to be part of a green party.
Lithuania: The other Baltic nation followed a similar course in terms of results. However, its main national conservative party, Order and Justice, collapsed, securing only 2.6% of the vote and losing both MEPs. It has been leaking support back to the Homeland Union in the last five years and this carried over to this European election. Despite having convincingly won the Seimas election in 2016, the Lithuanian Peasant & Greens Union (closer to Finland's Centre Party, by the way, although it does espouse green politics) only won one extra MEP and finished third, although its vote nearly doubled compared to 2014. The Liberal Movement lost a seat partly due to the ongoing corruption case of former leader Eligijus Masiulis. The Lithuanian Green Party, more pro-European in line with many Green Parties in Europe, saw its vote drop to 2.1% partly due to the rise of the Lithuanian Peasant & Greens Union; green conservatism is stronger in the Baltic nations than anywhere else in Europe.
Luxembourg: The Green Party, Die Greng, experienced the Green Wave, polling 18.9% and very close behind the liberal Democratic Party and the conservative Christian Social People's Party, who polled 21.4% and 21.1% respectively. With only 6 MEPs elected in Luxembourg, many significant parties end up missing out on representation; the Alternative Democratic Reform Party narrowly missed out on an MEP. The Pirate Party and Die Lenk (the Left) also failed to elect an MEP despite polling otherwise respectable vote shares of 7.7% and 4.8%, building on progressive parties' successes in the 2018 Luxembourgian general election.
Malta: Little change ever happens here in European Parliament terms; Malta only has 6 MEPs and its STV system keeps the Labour and Nationalist Parties firmly in control, due to it being virtually impossible for anyone outside these parties to obtain enough first preference votes necessary to make it through all the counting stages. The main opposition party, the green-minded Democratic Alternative, slipped from third to fifth, behind the extreme nationalists Imperium Europa and the liberal pro-European Democratic Party. Labour won an extra MEP and the Nationalists lost one of their MEPs; otherwise nothing else of note happened in Malta's European election of 2019.
Netherlands: In line with the rest of the Green Wave, GreenLeft won another MEP, although its surge in support could not match that of the 2017 Dutch general election or the 2019 Dutch local elections. The Labour Party made a surprise comeback, doubling their 2014 vote and topping the poll with 6 MEPs. The Eurosceptic right saw a similar situation to Britain when the new Forum for Democracy eclipsed the Party for Freedom; FvD won 3 MEPs but finished fourth, and were nearly pushed into fifth by GreenLeft (GreenLeft were only 3,304 votes behind); PVV dropped to 3.5% and lost all their MEPs as a result of FvD's rise. Democrats66 were punished for propping up Mark Rutte's government, losing half of their MEPs; GreenLeft absorbed many of their voters since D66's vote is strongest amongst the Netherland's educated urbane population; the de facto "Orange Book" liberals, VVD, won some voters as well although the continuing decline of the Christian Democratic Appeal also indirectly aided VVD. 50PLUS gained its first MEP due to high personal support for its lead candidate; the Netherlands runs an open list meaning strong individual candidates can be elected even if their party's support is otherwise relatively low. The Socialist Party, in long-term decline in the Netherlands as its older support base dies off and as younger voters migrate to GreenLeft, lost both its MEPs and finished even behind PVV.
Poland: Coalitions are becoming increasingly necessary in Poland due to its particular electoral laws and a determination to thwart the hard conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS). As a result, a European Coalition was formed for this purpose, comprising a diverse range of parties including the Civic Platform, Modern, Democratic Left Alliance, the Polish Greens, and the Polish People's Party. However, Law and Justice still topped the poll with 45.4% of the vote and 27 MEPs, even when it is attracting considerable international criticism for its interference in democratic processes (e.g. the judiciary) whilst the European Coalition lost 6 seats compared to the totals of its component parties in 2014. Spring was the only other Polish party to win MEPs, winning 3 mainly from Democratic Left voters protesting against that party's participation in a broad European Coalition. The hard Eurosceptic alliance Confederation narrowly missed the 8% threshold for coalitions (which applies to European elections in Poland as well as its Sejm elections). Kukiz'15, which made its debut in 2015, failed to elect any MEPs either, and the Left Together coalition failed badly. Tactical voting against PiS (even though European elections are about sending delegations to the European Parliament, not forming any sort of administration) played some part in these elections, squeezing most smaller parties.
Portugal: There were considerable shifts between the socialists at this European election; the Left Bloc swapped places with the Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) which currently has a confidence and supply agreement with Portuguese PM Antonia Costa of the Socialist Party. The Left Bloc won an extra MEP, whereas the CDU lost one, and the Portuguese Greens did not elect MEPs within that bloc; PS won an extra MEP despite an increase of only 1.9% from 2014; this administration is relatively popular in Portugal at present. However, an EGP member, People-Animals-Nature, did elect an MEP with 5.1% of the vote, and the more genuinely green LIVRE list lost some of its support to PAN. Former Earth Party MEP Marinho e Pinto ran for the Democratic Republican Party, but fared disastrously with less than 0.5% of the vote. Right-wing populism found few friends in Portugal compared to the rest of Europe; the Basta coalition polled only 1.5%. The more extreme socialist parties in Portugal found their votes absorbed by the Left Bloc.
Romania: The anti-corruption Save Romania Union made the biggest surge in this election, increasing its MEPs to 8, equal to that of the Social Democrats and only 2 behind the National Liberals, who had absorbed another party, the Democratic Liberal Party, in November 2014. The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Romania (incidentally this is also the name of the European group of Liberals) lost both their MEPs due to the Save Romania Union's rise. The other parties each retained their two MEPs, although each lost a little support compared to 2014.
Slovakia: In 2014, Slovakia registered the lowest turnout in the European elections with just 13%. This time, higher international attention on these elections due to the impact of impending Brexit helped turnout rise to 22.7%, still very poor. The liberal-conservative Progressive Slovakia coalition came top of the poll, electing 4 MEPs to the Social Democrats' 3. Central and Eastern Europe is experiencing strong support for hardline nationalist parties, with the neo-fascist and antiziganist People's Party-Our Slovakia electing two MEPs and finishing third in the poll despite being so extreme in its nationalist outlook the Prosecutors' Office requested a court-ordered dissolution of People's Party-Our Slovakia on account of its fascist tendencies and the fact many of its members are Holocaust deniers; Holocaust denial is a crime in Slovakia, just like in Germany, Austria, Poland, and most other European countries. Meanwhile, the parties supporting ethnic minority rights in Slovakia, the Party of the Hungarian Community and Most-Hid, both lost their MEPs, in a bitter blow for equality and diversity in Slovakia.
Slovenia: The Slovenian Democratic Party and People's Party coalition actually increased their vote by 1.65% but lost an MEP due to a new party, the Marjan Sarec list, winning 2 MEPs; such is the way of d'Hondt since the ratios of votes between parties matter more significantly than in any other PR system. The Social Democrats gained an extra MEP; the Slovenian Democratic Party, which has been shifting closer to a Fidesz-like platform under Janesz Jansa, has lost many of its moderate supporters to the Marjan Sarec list. The Left narrowly missed out on a European seat despite its good performance in the Slovenian parliamentary elections last year, and the Slovenian Greens also missed the mark although this was their best European election in 15 years.
Spain: Spain's European results were relatively similar to those of its general election of last month, with the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party overtaking the People's Party for pole position; the Citizens' Party beat Podemos for third place and Vox made its European debut with 3 MEPs. As Spain uses a national list for electing MEPs it is more difficult for regional parties to acquire representation via European elections, although a progressive alliance of regional parties did elect 3 MEPs; however the ecosocialist Commitment to Europe list lost their seat.
Sweden: Sweden should have been a beneficiary of the Green Wave but unfortunately was not. Miljopartiet actually lost 2 MEPs, half of its 2014 contingent, despite its vote share only dropping 3.9% to 11.5%. However this meant it slipped from second to fourth place; the order in which parties finish is a critical factor in d'Hondt elections, especially with a relatively limited number of seats to go around (Sweden elects 20 MEPs). Its performance was nevertheless better than what opinion polls predicted. The Sweden Democrats, despite being predicted to finish second on the back of increasing opposition to further immigration in Sweden, instead finished third behind the Moderates and gained 3 MEPs to the Moderates' 4. The Feminist Initiative collapsed in this election the way it did in the last Swedish Riksdag election, dropping to 0.8% and losing its only MEP; the fact its founder, Gudrun Schyman, is no longer its leader played a part in this collapse, as did the perception it is becoming too radical for many progressive voters in Sweden.
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