The South African general election of 2019: ANC slides but slowly
The South African general election of 2019 once again returned the African National Congress (ANC) to power with a single party majority.
However, it was the first time in the history of modern South Africa that the ANC's vote share dropped below 60%; in fact as many as three opinion polls in the run-up to the election polled it below 50%. The ANC won 230 seats and 57.5%, which will give it a secure majority for now, but this along with a turnout of only 66%, is a sign that the ANC's hold on power will not last much longer and that poorer South Africans are increasingly frustrated with the endemic corruption and nepotism of the modern ANC, even though voting in South Africa is mainly on ethnic lines as opposed to economic and social lines. The replacement of Jacob Zuma as President of South Africa with Cyril Ramaphosa in 2018 did stem its loss of support to some extent, although controversies over President Ramaphosa's business interests have added further woes to the ANC. During the last ANC administration of 2014-19, many prominent officials were exposed as having lied about their qualifications. One notable example was where former South African rail chief Daniel Mtikumulu, who claimed to have an engineering doctorate yet was exposed as merely being an ordinary engineering technician, ended up heading a 600 million rand order of diesel trains later found to be unusable on South African railways: https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/92424/south-africas-r600-million-train-blunder/ Meanwhile its former speaker, Carl Niehaus, was shown to have fabricated his entire CV and experience: https://www.politicsweb.co.za/news-and-analysis/the-dodgy-cv-of-carl-niehaus
Thus, most of the votes the ANC lost were to the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) Party of Julius Malema, once leader of the ANC's youth wing. The EFF increased their vote by 4.44%, almost equivalent to the 4.65% decrease in the ANC's vote share. The radical message of the EFF chimes well in poorer metropolitan parts of South Africa, which whilst growing fast as an international economy is one of the most unequal countries in the world, with a Gini coefficient as high as 0.70 (nearly twice that of the UK, the most unequal country in Europe) and also has very limited social support systems. The Inkatha Freedom Party, a socially conservative party advocating for Zulu interests, won 4 seats although this is still its second lowest ever seat total, and even in KwaZulu Natal province it has not recovered much of the support it lost in 2014, partly due to younger generations, who have had to deal with high levels of youth unemployment, rejecting its overly liberal economic outlook in contrast to its social conservatism. South Africa's young population is growingly rapidly proportionally not only due to population growth but also due to low life expectancy, which in South Africa is as low as 66 years for women and 59 years for men, partly due to the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in South Africa.
Despite the fact that the Democratic Alliance, which draws the majority of its votes from the white South African community but which also has support from many middle-class black South Africans, elected its first ever black South African leader, Mmusi Manaime, in 2015 it lost 5 seats even though it has consistently been the main opposition party in the National Assembly of South Africa since its foundation and it has not been hesitant to criticise the levels of corruption of ANC administrations. Its vote decrease was actually only 1.46% and this was mainly lost to the more conservative Freedom Front Plus Party, which has very limited amounts of support even in the Western Cape, the province with the highest white South African population and the only province whose legislature is not led by the ANC but rather the Democratic Alliance. Nevertheless the Freedom Front Plus only increased its seat total to 10, and the white South African population as a proportion of South Africa's population is decreasing year after year meaning that the Freedom Front Plus will not be able to become a significant force in South African politics due to its limited appeal and the significance of ethnicity-related voting in South Africa.
Two new parties entered the National Assembly of South Africa, the Christian right African Transformational Movement and the Democratic Alliance splinter group Good which won two seats apiece. The anti-corruption stance of Good did not endear it as much as it hoped in Cape Town, where EFF has a strong base. A splinter group of the IFP, the National Freedom Party, lost 4 of its 6 seats but continued to play a part in halting the IFP's recovery. Meanwhile, the Al Jama-ah party, which attracted media attention for calling for the introduction of sharia law in South Africa, won its first seat. Many parties in South Africa did not even poll 0.1% of the vote nationally (many parties also do not submit lists in every province due to the interests they wish to advocate for, which vary from province to province) and the radical anticapitalist National People's Ambassadors movement received the wooden spoon at this election, polling just 1,979 votes partly due to only submitting a list for KwaZulu Natal province. Proportionally the Power of African Unity party had the least support since despite fielding a list in three of the nine provinces of South Africa it polled only 2,685 votes, only 706 votes fewer than the National People's Ambassadors.
Although the ANC has won its sixth consecutive single party majority, this unbeaten run is unlikely to last much longer, especially with ever-increasing support for the EFF.
However, it was the first time in the history of modern South Africa that the ANC's vote share dropped below 60%; in fact as many as three opinion polls in the run-up to the election polled it below 50%. The ANC won 230 seats and 57.5%, which will give it a secure majority for now, but this along with a turnout of only 66%, is a sign that the ANC's hold on power will not last much longer and that poorer South Africans are increasingly frustrated with the endemic corruption and nepotism of the modern ANC, even though voting in South Africa is mainly on ethnic lines as opposed to economic and social lines. The replacement of Jacob Zuma as President of South Africa with Cyril Ramaphosa in 2018 did stem its loss of support to some extent, although controversies over President Ramaphosa's business interests have added further woes to the ANC. During the last ANC administration of 2014-19, many prominent officials were exposed as having lied about their qualifications. One notable example was where former South African rail chief Daniel Mtikumulu, who claimed to have an engineering doctorate yet was exposed as merely being an ordinary engineering technician, ended up heading a 600 million rand order of diesel trains later found to be unusable on South African railways: https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/92424/south-africas-r600-million-train-blunder/ Meanwhile its former speaker, Carl Niehaus, was shown to have fabricated his entire CV and experience: https://www.politicsweb.co.za/news-and-analysis/the-dodgy-cv-of-carl-niehaus
Thus, most of the votes the ANC lost were to the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) Party of Julius Malema, once leader of the ANC's youth wing. The EFF increased their vote by 4.44%, almost equivalent to the 4.65% decrease in the ANC's vote share. The radical message of the EFF chimes well in poorer metropolitan parts of South Africa, which whilst growing fast as an international economy is one of the most unequal countries in the world, with a Gini coefficient as high as 0.70 (nearly twice that of the UK, the most unequal country in Europe) and also has very limited social support systems. The Inkatha Freedom Party, a socially conservative party advocating for Zulu interests, won 4 seats although this is still its second lowest ever seat total, and even in KwaZulu Natal province it has not recovered much of the support it lost in 2014, partly due to younger generations, who have had to deal with high levels of youth unemployment, rejecting its overly liberal economic outlook in contrast to its social conservatism. South Africa's young population is growingly rapidly proportionally not only due to population growth but also due to low life expectancy, which in South Africa is as low as 66 years for women and 59 years for men, partly due to the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in South Africa.
Despite the fact that the Democratic Alliance, which draws the majority of its votes from the white South African community but which also has support from many middle-class black South Africans, elected its first ever black South African leader, Mmusi Manaime, in 2015 it lost 5 seats even though it has consistently been the main opposition party in the National Assembly of South Africa since its foundation and it has not been hesitant to criticise the levels of corruption of ANC administrations. Its vote decrease was actually only 1.46% and this was mainly lost to the more conservative Freedom Front Plus Party, which has very limited amounts of support even in the Western Cape, the province with the highest white South African population and the only province whose legislature is not led by the ANC but rather the Democratic Alliance. Nevertheless the Freedom Front Plus only increased its seat total to 10, and the white South African population as a proportion of South Africa's population is decreasing year after year meaning that the Freedom Front Plus will not be able to become a significant force in South African politics due to its limited appeal and the significance of ethnicity-related voting in South Africa.
Two new parties entered the National Assembly of South Africa, the Christian right African Transformational Movement and the Democratic Alliance splinter group Good which won two seats apiece. The anti-corruption stance of Good did not endear it as much as it hoped in Cape Town, where EFF has a strong base. A splinter group of the IFP, the National Freedom Party, lost 4 of its 6 seats but continued to play a part in halting the IFP's recovery. Meanwhile, the Al Jama-ah party, which attracted media attention for calling for the introduction of sharia law in South Africa, won its first seat. Many parties in South Africa did not even poll 0.1% of the vote nationally (many parties also do not submit lists in every province due to the interests they wish to advocate for, which vary from province to province) and the radical anticapitalist National People's Ambassadors movement received the wooden spoon at this election, polling just 1,979 votes partly due to only submitting a list for KwaZulu Natal province. Proportionally the Power of African Unity party had the least support since despite fielding a list in three of the nine provinces of South Africa it polled only 2,685 votes, only 706 votes fewer than the National People's Ambassadors.
Although the ANC has won its sixth consecutive single party majority, this unbeaten run is unlikely to last much longer, especially with ever-increasing support for the EFF.
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