The 2019 European elections, part 2: Austria to Hungary
The European elections of 2019, all across the 27 member states of the European Union, experienced a Green Wave just like Britain did, due to the global impact of climate change protests, school strikes, and the speeches of 16 year old Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg. But how far reaching was this Green Wave, and did the voters turn against the old blue and red blocs that are the European People's Party (EPP) and Socialists and Democrats (S&D)?
Austria:
Austria experienced surprisingly little change from 2014, although the FPO (Freedom Party of Austria) which had managed a good second place in 2017 instead finished a poor third with 17.2%, due to the recent collapse of the OVP (Austrian People's Party) led government following the Ibiza affair in February. However, the OVP still gained an extra two MEPs, whilst the opposition SPO (Socialist Party of Austria) actually saw a vote share decrease of 0.2%. Despite the recency of the scandal, dubbed "Ibizagate", the FPO only lost 1 MEP. Far from experiencing a Green surge, the Austrian Greens lost an MEP, and the splinter Pilz List, running under the EUROPE banner, flopped, polling just 1.0%, only slightly ahead of the Communists' 0.8%. Even with the Pilz list having lost all real credibility, their damaging impact on the Austrian Greens remains.
Belgium: This election took place at the same time as all other Belgian elections, which I will cover later this week. In Flanders, the extreme nationalist Vlaams Belang managed to win 3 seats and finish second behind the New Flemish Alliance, which is also the party where Vlaams Belang took a lot of votes from and previously lost many votes to. The mainstream parties of the Socialists and Christian Democrats all lost votes, as did the liberal Open VLD list, although their losses were not in the same league as their UK counterparts and never would be. The Greens gained in both regions of Belgium although only in Wallonia did they win an extra MEP; whilst the Workers' Party of Belgium managed to double their vote they did not win any extra European seats in Belgium.
Bulgaria: The main conservative party in Bulgaria, GERB, kept its 6 MEPs but found its advance stalled by the more conservative and irredentist Bulgarian National Movement. The Bulgarian Socialists, on the other hand, experienced a miniature revival increasing their total to 5 MEPs, at a time when the S&D bloc is in long-term decline across Europe. The Bulgarian National Movement also accounts for the decline of far-right nationalist parties in Bulgaria, with ATAKA sinking to a record low of 1.08% and Volya failing to win any seats. The Bulgarian Green Party did not even manage 1%; Green Parties continue to struggle in Eastern Europe.
Croatia: Both the leading parties, the Croatian Democratic Union and Social Democrats, suffered significant falls in vote share to 22.7% and 18.7%, but due to fragmented opposition parties and a few popular candidates (Croatia uses open lists) the Social Democrats actually gained 2 seats and the Croatian Democratic Union retained their 4 seats. Croatia also saw one of only a handful of Independents elected to the European Parliament, namely Mislav Kolakusic, who finished behind only the two leading parties are the neoconservative Croatian Sovereigntist coalition with 7.9% of the vote. Former Croatian Peasant Party MEP Marijana Petir, who once became notorious for being the only Croatian MP to vote against anti-discrimination laws, was not so fortunate, polling only 4.4% and losing her seat. Her former party joined the Amsterdam Coalition, as strangely did the Croatian Labourists, but neither of them elected an MEP. With the main Croatian Green Party, the once rising ORaH, having failed to recover from its drubbing in 2015 and the loss of its MEP, the Green coalition only managed 1.8%.
Cyprus: With only 6 MEPs (the minimum each European Union member state is entitled to by law) potential for change was relatively limited. DISY nearly lost first place to AKEL but both retained 2 MEPs. The Cypriot Green Party, not allying with the social democratic EDEK, failed to win a seat whilst EDEK retained theirs. Cypriot's ally of Golden Dawn, the National Popular Front (ELAM) more than trebled its vote share but failed to elect an MEP.
Czech Republic: The Green movement has been splintering in the Czech Republic; there are now three Green Parties with significant numbers of members: the main Green Party, the Liberal-Environmental Party, led by the former Czech Environment Minister Martin Bursik and which in fact allied with the Greens, TOP 09 and STAN (Mayors and Independents) list for this election, and the Democratic Greens, which refused to join that alliance. The original Czech Greens fared better in the TOP 09 led alliance, although that alliance only elected 3 MEPs meaning neither they nor their allies elected any MEPs. The Democratic Greens on the other hand polled a miserable 0.6%. The liberal conservative ANO 2011 won an extra 2 MEPs, whilst the old main conservative Czech Party, the Civic Democrats, experienced a surprise revival having teetered on the brink of losing all representation in the last six years. The Communists continued their long term decline, electing only one MEP and falling behind the Christian Democrats, although this was better than the Social Democrats, who sinking below the 5% threshold lost all 4 of their MEPs. Its recent decision to join the coalition led by Andrej Babis will prove to be its final downfall, it having lost so many seats at a municipal and national level in the last five years. The pro-European liberal Voice Party also failed to win any seats, whereas the Freedom and Direct Democracy party won 2 seats mostly at the expense of Svobodni, which collapsed.
Denmark: The most significant event was the fall of the Danish People's Party, which lost all but one of its MEPs and finished fifth in the poll having topped the poll in 2014; in 2014 Denmark was one of only three countries (the others being France and the UK) to see a nationalist anti-EU party top the poll. Venstre was the biggest beneficiary, topping the poll with 23.5%. The Red Bloc's parties overall gained 2 seats via the Socialist People's Party and Social Liberals, which will become important next week when Denmark holds its next general election. The hardline socialist Red-Green Alliance ran in its own right for the first time in a European election in Denmark, winning a seat and causing the People's Movement Against the EU, which it formerly supported, to lose its only MEP. The Alternative's effort to replace the Socialist People's Party as the main Green Party in Denmark in European Parliament terms failed badly, since they polled 3.4% finishing as low as 9th in the poll. A similar picture is likely to emerge in next week's Danish parliamentary election.
Estonia: Estonia's popular Independent MEP, Indrek Tarand, retired at this election; former Centre Party MEP Raimond Kaljulaid, the half-brother of Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid, fell considerably short of being elected as another Independent MEP. The Social Democrats gained an MEP, Centre slipped to a poor third but retained its MEP, and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia entered the European Parliament for the first time building on its success earlier this year.
Finland: A Green Wave did happen here, since the Green League finished a good second with 16% of the vote, gaining a second MEP. Centre lost out the most from this surge, slipping to fifth place and losing an MEP. Otherwise, little change occurred from 2014 and the Green Wave only caused turnout to rise modestly, by 1.6%.
France: Vive la verte-the Greens more than doubled their MEPs to 13, easily making a comeback after losing all but 1 MP in the French National Assembly 2017 following their lead candidate Yannick Jadot's foolish decision to endorse Benoit Hamon of the Socialists in the presidential election that year. The French Socialist Party's coalition meanwhile finished in sixth place with just 5 MEPs, their worst ever showing in a European Parliament election. The decision to use a national list for European elections in France with a 5% threshold was partly responsible, as it helped break the hold of the two old red and blue blocs; it also helped Les Vertes, Parti Socialiste and Les Republicanes, who lost 12 of their MEPs and finished a poor fourth. The National Rally formerly the French National Front may have finished first in the poll, but in fact it lost 2 MEPs, with Emmanuel Macron's En Marche coalition finishing a close second despite the low popularity levels of M. Macron at present. The Insubmissive France list replaced the French Communists as the main hardline socialist party in this election, winning six seats whilst the French Communists lost all 4 MEPs with just 2.5%. En Marche also eclipsed the pro-European Union of Democrats and Independents, which lost all 7 European seats, especially since only one of its founding members remains part of the UDI.
Germany: Germany also experienced a strong Green Wave-Groen fur alles Deutsches! They continued their impressive results of 2018 into the European Parliament, increasing their MEPs to 21, second behind only the CDU, who lost 5 seats The Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany (AfD) failed to make their breakthrough, despite increasing their MEPs to 11 mainly at the expense of the CDU, especially in former East Germany. It was in fact the Social Democrats, still junior partners in a grand coalition, who took the biggest hit, losing 11 MEPs and finishing third behind the Greens. The Green Wave also caused Die Linke (the Left) to lose a seat although many hardline socialist parties are failing to pick up younger voters who are opting for the Greens. Even though the Greens and Free Democrats both do well in similar places in Germany with some exceptions, the Green Wave did not prevent the FDP gaining an extra 2 MEPs, partly due to its poor environmental record not appealing to Green voters. The pro-European VoltEuropa party, despite having little support anywhere in Europe, managed to elect one MEP, whereas the National Democratic Party lost its only MEP and finished behind even DiEM25, the German arm of Yanis Varoufakis' vanity project. The satirical Die PARTEI (literally "The Party") won an extra seat, having become a small yet significant none of the above outlet for German voters.
Greece: SYRIZA, formerly the favourite of European radical socialists across Europe, has fallen from grace owing to the failures of its leader and still Prime Minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras. The main conservative party of Greece, New Democracy, now led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis (son of former Greek PM Konstantinos Mitsotakis and great-great nephew of Greek political star Eleftherios Venizelos) increased its MEPs to 8, recovering its losses of 2014. The centrist River party, which was expelled from the main social democratic alliance KINAL, and which has seen half of its MPs resign, lost both its MEPs and obtained only 1.5% of the vote. SYRIZA by comparison retained its 6 MEPs despite slipping to second place. Yanis Varoufakis clearly failed in his attempts to become an MEP, with his European Realistic Disobedience Front coming 0.01% short of the 3% threshold; a running gag in Greek elections is one party finishing close to the 3% threshold but narrowly missing it for one reason or another. Course for Freedom, led by former Speaker Zoe Konstantinopoulos, fared even worse with 1.6%.
Hungary: Hungary stands out amongst European countries in this European Parliament election for two key reasons: its main green party, LMP (Politics can be Different) lost its only MEP and finished with 2.2% of the vote, behind the satirical Two-Tailed Dog Party. Also, its main conservative party, Fidesz, despite being suspended from the EPP due to its disregard for fair rule of law, gained an MEP in contrast to similar parties leaking support across the continent. In terms of older parties losing seats, the Hungarian Socialists lost 2 seats, as did Jobbik, whose hardline nationalist vote was split by the more extreme Our Homeland Movement, which failed to win any seats. The liberal Momentum Movement gained 2 MEPs, winning over some moderate voters dissatisfied with Viktor Orban and his Putinesque style. The moderate Democratic Coalition also doubled its MEP total to 4, so new political shifts are happening in Hungary despite the continuing dominance of Fidesz at all political levels in Hungary.
Austria:
Austria experienced surprisingly little change from 2014, although the FPO (Freedom Party of Austria) which had managed a good second place in 2017 instead finished a poor third with 17.2%, due to the recent collapse of the OVP (Austrian People's Party) led government following the Ibiza affair in February. However, the OVP still gained an extra two MEPs, whilst the opposition SPO (Socialist Party of Austria) actually saw a vote share decrease of 0.2%. Despite the recency of the scandal, dubbed "Ibizagate", the FPO only lost 1 MEP. Far from experiencing a Green surge, the Austrian Greens lost an MEP, and the splinter Pilz List, running under the EUROPE banner, flopped, polling just 1.0%, only slightly ahead of the Communists' 0.8%. Even with the Pilz list having lost all real credibility, their damaging impact on the Austrian Greens remains.
Belgium: This election took place at the same time as all other Belgian elections, which I will cover later this week. In Flanders, the extreme nationalist Vlaams Belang managed to win 3 seats and finish second behind the New Flemish Alliance, which is also the party where Vlaams Belang took a lot of votes from and previously lost many votes to. The mainstream parties of the Socialists and Christian Democrats all lost votes, as did the liberal Open VLD list, although their losses were not in the same league as their UK counterparts and never would be. The Greens gained in both regions of Belgium although only in Wallonia did they win an extra MEP; whilst the Workers' Party of Belgium managed to double their vote they did not win any extra European seats in Belgium.
Bulgaria: The main conservative party in Bulgaria, GERB, kept its 6 MEPs but found its advance stalled by the more conservative and irredentist Bulgarian National Movement. The Bulgarian Socialists, on the other hand, experienced a miniature revival increasing their total to 5 MEPs, at a time when the S&D bloc is in long-term decline across Europe. The Bulgarian National Movement also accounts for the decline of far-right nationalist parties in Bulgaria, with ATAKA sinking to a record low of 1.08% and Volya failing to win any seats. The Bulgarian Green Party did not even manage 1%; Green Parties continue to struggle in Eastern Europe.
Croatia: Both the leading parties, the Croatian Democratic Union and Social Democrats, suffered significant falls in vote share to 22.7% and 18.7%, but due to fragmented opposition parties and a few popular candidates (Croatia uses open lists) the Social Democrats actually gained 2 seats and the Croatian Democratic Union retained their 4 seats. Croatia also saw one of only a handful of Independents elected to the European Parliament, namely Mislav Kolakusic, who finished behind only the two leading parties are the neoconservative Croatian Sovereigntist coalition with 7.9% of the vote. Former Croatian Peasant Party MEP Marijana Petir, who once became notorious for being the only Croatian MP to vote against anti-discrimination laws, was not so fortunate, polling only 4.4% and losing her seat. Her former party joined the Amsterdam Coalition, as strangely did the Croatian Labourists, but neither of them elected an MEP. With the main Croatian Green Party, the once rising ORaH, having failed to recover from its drubbing in 2015 and the loss of its MEP, the Green coalition only managed 1.8%.
Cyprus: With only 6 MEPs (the minimum each European Union member state is entitled to by law) potential for change was relatively limited. DISY nearly lost first place to AKEL but both retained 2 MEPs. The Cypriot Green Party, not allying with the social democratic EDEK, failed to win a seat whilst EDEK retained theirs. Cypriot's ally of Golden Dawn, the National Popular Front (ELAM) more than trebled its vote share but failed to elect an MEP.
Czech Republic: The Green movement has been splintering in the Czech Republic; there are now three Green Parties with significant numbers of members: the main Green Party, the Liberal-Environmental Party, led by the former Czech Environment Minister Martin Bursik and which in fact allied with the Greens, TOP 09 and STAN (Mayors and Independents) list for this election, and the Democratic Greens, which refused to join that alliance. The original Czech Greens fared better in the TOP 09 led alliance, although that alliance only elected 3 MEPs meaning neither they nor their allies elected any MEPs. The Democratic Greens on the other hand polled a miserable 0.6%. The liberal conservative ANO 2011 won an extra 2 MEPs, whilst the old main conservative Czech Party, the Civic Democrats, experienced a surprise revival having teetered on the brink of losing all representation in the last six years. The Communists continued their long term decline, electing only one MEP and falling behind the Christian Democrats, although this was better than the Social Democrats, who sinking below the 5% threshold lost all 4 of their MEPs. Its recent decision to join the coalition led by Andrej Babis will prove to be its final downfall, it having lost so many seats at a municipal and national level in the last five years. The pro-European liberal Voice Party also failed to win any seats, whereas the Freedom and Direct Democracy party won 2 seats mostly at the expense of Svobodni, which collapsed.
Denmark: The most significant event was the fall of the Danish People's Party, which lost all but one of its MEPs and finished fifth in the poll having topped the poll in 2014; in 2014 Denmark was one of only three countries (the others being France and the UK) to see a nationalist anti-EU party top the poll. Venstre was the biggest beneficiary, topping the poll with 23.5%. The Red Bloc's parties overall gained 2 seats via the Socialist People's Party and Social Liberals, which will become important next week when Denmark holds its next general election. The hardline socialist Red-Green Alliance ran in its own right for the first time in a European election in Denmark, winning a seat and causing the People's Movement Against the EU, which it formerly supported, to lose its only MEP. The Alternative's effort to replace the Socialist People's Party as the main Green Party in Denmark in European Parliament terms failed badly, since they polled 3.4% finishing as low as 9th in the poll. A similar picture is likely to emerge in next week's Danish parliamentary election.
Estonia: Estonia's popular Independent MEP, Indrek Tarand, retired at this election; former Centre Party MEP Raimond Kaljulaid, the half-brother of Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid, fell considerably short of being elected as another Independent MEP. The Social Democrats gained an MEP, Centre slipped to a poor third but retained its MEP, and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia entered the European Parliament for the first time building on its success earlier this year.
Finland: A Green Wave did happen here, since the Green League finished a good second with 16% of the vote, gaining a second MEP. Centre lost out the most from this surge, slipping to fifth place and losing an MEP. Otherwise, little change occurred from 2014 and the Green Wave only caused turnout to rise modestly, by 1.6%.
France: Vive la verte-the Greens more than doubled their MEPs to 13, easily making a comeback after losing all but 1 MP in the French National Assembly 2017 following their lead candidate Yannick Jadot's foolish decision to endorse Benoit Hamon of the Socialists in the presidential election that year. The French Socialist Party's coalition meanwhile finished in sixth place with just 5 MEPs, their worst ever showing in a European Parliament election. The decision to use a national list for European elections in France with a 5% threshold was partly responsible, as it helped break the hold of the two old red and blue blocs; it also helped Les Vertes, Parti Socialiste and Les Republicanes, who lost 12 of their MEPs and finished a poor fourth. The National Rally formerly the French National Front may have finished first in the poll, but in fact it lost 2 MEPs, with Emmanuel Macron's En Marche coalition finishing a close second despite the low popularity levels of M. Macron at present. The Insubmissive France list replaced the French Communists as the main hardline socialist party in this election, winning six seats whilst the French Communists lost all 4 MEPs with just 2.5%. En Marche also eclipsed the pro-European Union of Democrats and Independents, which lost all 7 European seats, especially since only one of its founding members remains part of the UDI.
Germany: Germany also experienced a strong Green Wave-Groen fur alles Deutsches! They continued their impressive results of 2018 into the European Parliament, increasing their MEPs to 21, second behind only the CDU, who lost 5 seats The Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany (AfD) failed to make their breakthrough, despite increasing their MEPs to 11 mainly at the expense of the CDU, especially in former East Germany. It was in fact the Social Democrats, still junior partners in a grand coalition, who took the biggest hit, losing 11 MEPs and finishing third behind the Greens. The Green Wave also caused Die Linke (the Left) to lose a seat although many hardline socialist parties are failing to pick up younger voters who are opting for the Greens. Even though the Greens and Free Democrats both do well in similar places in Germany with some exceptions, the Green Wave did not prevent the FDP gaining an extra 2 MEPs, partly due to its poor environmental record not appealing to Green voters. The pro-European VoltEuropa party, despite having little support anywhere in Europe, managed to elect one MEP, whereas the National Democratic Party lost its only MEP and finished behind even DiEM25, the German arm of Yanis Varoufakis' vanity project. The satirical Die PARTEI (literally "The Party") won an extra seat, having become a small yet significant none of the above outlet for German voters.
Greece: SYRIZA, formerly the favourite of European radical socialists across Europe, has fallen from grace owing to the failures of its leader and still Prime Minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras. The main conservative party of Greece, New Democracy, now led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis (son of former Greek PM Konstantinos Mitsotakis and great-great nephew of Greek political star Eleftherios Venizelos) increased its MEPs to 8, recovering its losses of 2014. The centrist River party, which was expelled from the main social democratic alliance KINAL, and which has seen half of its MPs resign, lost both its MEPs and obtained only 1.5% of the vote. SYRIZA by comparison retained its 6 MEPs despite slipping to second place. Yanis Varoufakis clearly failed in his attempts to become an MEP, with his European Realistic Disobedience Front coming 0.01% short of the 3% threshold; a running gag in Greek elections is one party finishing close to the 3% threshold but narrowly missing it for one reason or another. Course for Freedom, led by former Speaker Zoe Konstantinopoulos, fared even worse with 1.6%.
Hungary: Hungary stands out amongst European countries in this European Parliament election for two key reasons: its main green party, LMP (Politics can be Different) lost its only MEP and finished with 2.2% of the vote, behind the satirical Two-Tailed Dog Party. Also, its main conservative party, Fidesz, despite being suspended from the EPP due to its disregard for fair rule of law, gained an MEP in contrast to similar parties leaking support across the continent. In terms of older parties losing seats, the Hungarian Socialists lost 2 seats, as did Jobbik, whose hardline nationalist vote was split by the more extreme Our Homeland Movement, which failed to win any seats. The liberal Momentum Movement gained 2 MEPs, winning over some moderate voters dissatisfied with Viktor Orban and his Putinesque style. The moderate Democratic Coalition also doubled its MEP total to 4, so new political shifts are happening in Hungary despite the continuing dominance of Fidesz at all political levels in Hungary.
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