My analysis of British local by-elections from 9/5/19 and the Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election in Canada
Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 9 May 2019 were as follows:
East Lothian UA, Haddington & Lammersmuir (1st preference votes): Conservative 2212 (35.0%,+6.0%), SNP 1866 (29.5%, +3.5%), Labour 1359 (21.5%, -12.2%), Liberal Democrats 774 (12.2%, +5.0%), UKIP 108 (1.7%). Conservative hold at stage 4. [Greens did not stand]
Havering LBC, Cranham: Upminster & Cranham Residents' Association 2421 (68.4%, +7.6%), Green 312 (8.8%, +1.6%), Conservative 257 (7.3%, -10.0%), Labour 219 (6.2%, -2.5%), UKIP 208 (5.9%, -0.2%), Liberal Democrats 120 (3.4%).
Given the heavy Conservative losses last week, it seems surprising that the Conservatives held Haddington & Lammersmuir, although Ruth Davidson's popularity in Scotland is keeping the Conservatives afloat there and allowing unionist transfers to continue to flow to them. Brexit faultlines helped the SNP overtake Labour, with UKIP making no significant impact which is par for the course in Scotland.
Meanwhile in Havering, which being a London borough had no elections this year, the election result followed the pattern of Residents' Association results in many Conservative areas, with the pleasant surprise of the Greens beating the Conservatives for second place even when a Residents' Association hold was a foregone conclusion.
Crossing the Atlantic into Canada, the Greens' gain of the riding of Nanaimo-Ladysmith in British Columbia, the Greenest province in Canada, was described as a "shock": https://globalnews.ca/news/5247949/greens-win-nanaimo-byelection/?fbclid=IwAR1LJGRmF6ismXL8-CRNdU-ddMPW9X3zLfKhKocK3IVpMC2e-E8Xp9GvRfM
However, the Canadian Greens have building up support rapidly in British Columbia for years, and even though the new Green MP, Paul Manly, finished fourth in that riding in 2015, he did so with 19.8% of the vote, one of the 10 best Green results in Canada's 2015 federal election, and finished only 9,877 votes behind the New Democrats in a riding with 95,200 electors. The Greens won 3 seats in the British Columbia provincial election 2 years earlier, enough to hold the balance of power between the New Democrats and Liberals. The Green results in the provincial ridings within the boundaries of Nanaimo-Ladysmith were all above the high average of 16.84% as well. Paul was able to win the votes of many dissatisfied Liberals tired of the failures of the Trudeau administration on progressive policies. The bigger surprise of this Canadian by-election is that the New Democrats were pushed into third place by the Conservatives; British Columbia has no Conservative MLAs and it is their weakest Canadian province by far. The Greens have been making considerable progress in Canada in general, notably in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, and this also proved to be a factor in their by-election gain of Nanaimo-Ladysmith, as they are now seen by Canadians as a growing and significant force across Canada.
This historic by-election win for the Green Party, narrowly missed in Victoria seven years ago, will place them on track to make sweeping gains in British Columbia's federal ridings in October when the next federal Canadian election will take place.
East Lothian UA, Haddington & Lammersmuir (1st preference votes): Conservative 2212 (35.0%,+6.0%), SNP 1866 (29.5%, +3.5%), Labour 1359 (21.5%, -12.2%), Liberal Democrats 774 (12.2%, +5.0%), UKIP 108 (1.7%). Conservative hold at stage 4. [Greens did not stand]
Havering LBC, Cranham: Upminster & Cranham Residents' Association 2421 (68.4%, +7.6%), Green 312 (8.8%, +1.6%), Conservative 257 (7.3%, -10.0%), Labour 219 (6.2%, -2.5%), UKIP 208 (5.9%, -0.2%), Liberal Democrats 120 (3.4%).
Given the heavy Conservative losses last week, it seems surprising that the Conservatives held Haddington & Lammersmuir, although Ruth Davidson's popularity in Scotland is keeping the Conservatives afloat there and allowing unionist transfers to continue to flow to them. Brexit faultlines helped the SNP overtake Labour, with UKIP making no significant impact which is par for the course in Scotland.
Meanwhile in Havering, which being a London borough had no elections this year, the election result followed the pattern of Residents' Association results in many Conservative areas, with the pleasant surprise of the Greens beating the Conservatives for second place even when a Residents' Association hold was a foregone conclusion.
Crossing the Atlantic into Canada, the Greens' gain of the riding of Nanaimo-Ladysmith in British Columbia, the Greenest province in Canada, was described as a "shock": https://globalnews.ca/news/5247949/greens-win-nanaimo-byelection/?fbclid=IwAR1LJGRmF6ismXL8-CRNdU-ddMPW9X3zLfKhKocK3IVpMC2e-E8Xp9GvRfM
However, the Canadian Greens have building up support rapidly in British Columbia for years, and even though the new Green MP, Paul Manly, finished fourth in that riding in 2015, he did so with 19.8% of the vote, one of the 10 best Green results in Canada's 2015 federal election, and finished only 9,877 votes behind the New Democrats in a riding with 95,200 electors. The Greens won 3 seats in the British Columbia provincial election 2 years earlier, enough to hold the balance of power between the New Democrats and Liberals. The Green results in the provincial ridings within the boundaries of Nanaimo-Ladysmith were all above the high average of 16.84% as well. Paul was able to win the votes of many dissatisfied Liberals tired of the failures of the Trudeau administration on progressive policies. The bigger surprise of this Canadian by-election is that the New Democrats were pushed into third place by the Conservatives; British Columbia has no Conservative MLAs and it is their weakest Canadian province by far. The Greens have been making considerable progress in Canada in general, notably in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, and this also proved to be a factor in their by-election gain of Nanaimo-Ladysmith, as they are now seen by Canadians as a growing and significant force across Canada.
This historic by-election win for the Green Party, narrowly missed in Victoria seven years ago, will place them on track to make sweeping gains in British Columbia's federal ridings in October when the next federal Canadian election will take place.
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