Alan's Green Thoughts

The snap Austrian legislative election of 2019, which was forced by the collapse of the deal between the OVP (Austrian People's Party) and nationalist FPO (Freedom Party of Austria) following the aftermath of the Ibiza affair, resulted in heavy losses for the FPO, junior coalition partners of Sebastian Kurz, still the youngest Chancellor in Austrian history. The FPO lost as many as 20 seats, bringing them down to 31, although this was not as low as their debacle in 2002 when they won just 18 seats after European Union sanctions were briefly enacted against Austria due to their hard right influence on the first OVP-FPO coalition, which lasted from 1999-2002. However, it meant its vote share decreased by 9.8% compared to 2017 meaning they finished third behind the SPO (Socialist Party of Austria), whose seat total of 40 and vote share of 21.2% are their lowest ever. The two-party dominance of Austria is fading, even though there has not so far been an elect...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 26 September 2019 were as follows: Crawley BC, Tilgate: Conservative 741 (57.0%, +10.0%), Labour 396 (30.5%, -7.3%), Liberal Democrats 82 (6.3%), Green 75 (5.8%, -9.4%), Justice Party 5 (0.4%). Ipswich BC, Alexandra: Labour 734 (50.2%, -3.5%), Liberal Democrats 287 (19.6%, +10.7%), Conservative 278 (19.0%, -0.7%), Green 164 (11.2%, -6.0%). All changes are since May 2019. Luton UA, Icknield: Labour 585 (36.7%, -5.6%), Conservative 563 (35.4%, -8.8%), Liberal Democrats 403 (25.6%, +12.1%), Green 37 (2.3%). Labour gain from Conservative. Rochford DC, Sweyne Park & Grange: Conservative 541 (49.7%, +19.6%), Liberal Democrats 407 (37.4%,-0.5%), Green 140 (12.9%). Conservative gain from Rochford Residents; all changes are since 2016. [Rochford Residents did not stand]. West Sussex CC, Three Bridges: Conservative 1102 (51.7%, +6.7%), Labour 628 (29.5%, -10.5%), Liberal Democrats 257 (12.1%, +6.4%), Green 136 (6.4%, +2...

Readers, the results from British local by-elections held on 19 September 2019 were as follows: Canterbury DC, Chestfield: Conservative 728 (46.0%, -6.5%), Liberal Democrats 562 (35.5%, +19.0%), Labour 140 (8.9%, -6.8%), Independent (Egerton) 84 (5.3%), Green 68 (4.3%, -10.9%). [UKIP did not stand] Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Fulham Broadway: Labour 1097 (44.2%, -11.6%), Liberal Democrats 755 (30.4%, +21.8%), Conservative 628 (25.3%, -10.2%). Liverpool MBC, Old Swan: Labour 1153 (55.4%, -17.0%), Liberal 293 (14.1%, +6.4%), Liberal Democrats 272 (13.1%, +7.1%), Old Swan Against the Cuts 138 (6.6%, +3.6%), Green 130 (6.2%, -1.6%), Conservative 96 (4.6%, +1.4%). North Lanarkshire UA, Thornewood (1st preferences): Labour 1362 (44.3%, -6.0%), SNP 1202 (39.1%, +0.4%), Conservative 296 (9.6%, -1.5%), Liberal Democrats 148 (5.5%), Green 46 (1.5%). Labour hold at stage 4. Somerset West & Taunton DC, Vivary: Liberal Democrats 648 (55.3%, +21.0%), Conservative 307 (26.2%, -...

The snap Israeli Knesset election, which took place yesterday just five months after the previous Knesset election, resulted in a narrow but nevertheless convincing defeat for Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party. It was the first time that a government had not been formed successfully in Israel. In fact, although Likud only lost 4 seats compared to April 2019, this at 31 seats put them two seats behind Benny Gantz' liberal Blue and White Alliance, who won 33 seats which incidentally was 2 fewer than in April 2019. The Joint List, an alliance of socialist and Arab minority interest parties in Israel, achieved a good third place with 12 seats, which will give it decisive influence in the formation of the next government, which will likely result in the ousting of Benjamin Netanyahu especially as he is currently awaiting trial on corruption charges. There was relatively little change for the other political parties in Israel, although coalitions are now the norm in Israeli ...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 12 September 2019 were as follows: Rushmoor BC, St Mark's: Liberal Democrats 687 (54.7%, +16.5%), Conservative 450 (35.9%,+2.2%), Labour 118 (9.4%, -6.1%). All changes are since May 2019 [British Union and Sovereignty Party did not stand] Rutland UA, Ryhall & Casterton: Conservative 357 (56.3%), Liberal Democrats 156 (24.6%), Green 121 (19.1%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time] Shropshire UA, Bishop's Castle:  Liberal Democrats 838 (71.4%, -2.2%), Conservative 229 (19.5%,-1.4%), Labour 107 (9.1%). [Green Party did not stand] South Northamptonshire DC, Middleton Cheney: Liberal Democrats 384 (44.3%, +10.2%), Conservative 345 (39.3%, -2.3%), Green 89 (10.3%, +6.2%), Labour 59 (5.7%, -14.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Wellingborough BC, Finedon: Conservative 547 (52.1%, -10.1%), Independent (Harper) 227 (21.6%), Green 134 (12.8%), Labour 76 (7.3%,...

The Manitoban general election of 2019, held two days ago, produced surprisingly little change, given that nationally in Canada the Liberals and Conservatives have been neck and neck in opinion polls; furthermore the next Canadian federal election is now less than six weeks away. There was a swing of 5.84% from the Conservatives to the New Democratic Party, but this is rather low by Canadian standards. Of the 57 ridings only 7 changed hands, and in two of them (Keewatinook and St James) the incumbent retired (Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoreux moved ridings from Burrows to Tyndall Park; she gained Tyndall Park but the NDP gained Burrows). The NDP's vote share increase of 5.65% gained them 5 ridings (3 Conservative, 2 Liberal), losing only Tyndall Park to Cindy Lamoreux of the Liberals. One notable disappointment was their failure to gain the new riding of McPhillips (named for McPhillips street in Winnipeg, by the way, not a Canadian with that surname) by 105 votes, as well a...

Norway held its most recent local elections yesterday, on the basis of 11 new enlarged regions (fylkeskommuner) following a pattern administrative reform similar to that seen in many other European countries, continuing the rather unfortunate trend of downsizing local government and enlarging rural counties mainly for administrative convenience, despite Norway having one of the lowest population densities in Europe. Only the Norwegian capital city of Oslo and the surrounding new region of Viken (formed from Akershus, Buskerud and Ostfold) have a population density greater than 50 people per square kilometre in Norway; by contrast, only a small minority of districts in the UK, mainly in Scotland, have population densities lower than 50 people per square kilometre. Both the Norwegian Labour and Conservative Parties (Arbeiderpartiet and Hoyre) lost out badly in these local elections, with Norwegian Labour's vote decreasing by 8.2% and the Norwegian Conservat...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 5 September 2019 were as follows: Coventry MBC, Wainbody: Conservative 1560 (53.2%, +1.8%), Liberal Democrats 634 (21.6%, +16.0%), Labour 544 (18.6%, -16.4%), Brexit Party 193 (6.6%). All changes are since May 2019 [Greens and UKIP did not stand] Eden DC, Penrith South: Conservative 222 (46.3%, +20.7%), Independent (Quinn)193 (39.4%), Labour 46 (9.6%, -1.9%), Putting Cumbria First 23 (4.8%). Conservative gain from Independent. Hull UA, St Andrews & Docklands: Labour 837 (45.6%, -20.2%), Liberal Democrats 805 (43.9%, +30.7%), Conservative 193 (10.5%, -4.1%). All changes are since May 2019. [Greens and For Britain did not stand] At first, given the current political crisis in Britain, it seems surprising that the Conservatives managed to increase their vote share in the middle-class Wainbody ward, especially with the Liberal Democrats performing well in wards of this type and t...

Yesterday, Labour's abstention on the vote for an early general election on 15th October 2019 ensured that vote would fail under the provisions of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011, which requires two-thirds of all MPs to approve such a vote (434). However, there are three good reasons why we should all keep a look out for an early general election in November this year: 1. The recent decision to prorogue Parliament has forced business to move quickly. Before the prorogation starts, Parliament only has four more days from today to resolve remaining Parliamentary business, with legal challenges to Boris Johnson's prorogation having failed in Scottish courts. Furthermore, public opposition to the prorogation, designed to force through a no-deal Brexit, will likely necessitate an election to resolve the deadlock. 2. The current government has no working majority at all. In fact it has a working majority of -42 due to 21 Conservative MPs, most of whom represent affluent, ma...

The two Landtag (state) elections in Brandenburg and Saxony, both in former East Germany, produced a sensational backlash against the normally dominant parties of CDU, SPD, and Die Linke. All three of these parties endured substantial losses in both of these Landtag elections. DIe Linke, despite not being part of the governing coalition in either state, endured the heaviest losses both in terms of percentage points and seats. Die Linke failed to win a single direct mandate (single member constituency) in Brandenburg, coming closest in Potsdam II by finishing second by 760 votes, and in Saxony they only held Leipzig II in terms of direct mandates.  Overall, Die Linke lost 7 seats in Brandenburg, dropping from third to fifth place, their worst ever placing in any Landtag election in former East Germany where their predecessors were once the only permitted political party. In Saxony they fared better but they still lost almost half their seats and more of their vote (8.4%) than eith...