The Quebec provincial election of 2018: se deplacer plus a droite et a gauche
The Quebecois election of 2018 produced the biggest sensation in Quebec's electoral history since the crushing defeat of the once-dominant conservative Union Nationale party in 1970. It was the first time since 1966 that a party other than the Quebec Liberal Party or the Parti Quebecois had won a Quebecois election, and the first time the conservative Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) won an election, having only finished third in 2014 and having only been founded in 2011.
In 2014,CAQ only won 21 seats, although they increased their vote share despite losing votes overall. This time, they won a secure majority of 23 with their seat total of 74, and in an exercise of the need for proportional representation to replace first past the post, they won that majority on only 37.4% of the vote. For the first time, four parties-CAQ, PQ, PLQ, and the socialist Quebec Solidaire-were competitive in the province in spite of first past the post being used, which normally leads to two-party dominance due to the effect of Duverger's law. Before this election, CAQ was mostly confined to the prosperous semi-agricultural regions of Quebec, such as Monteregie which is known for its beautiful vineyards, orchards, and Chaudière-Appalaches. It now holds nearly all rural ridings in Quebec at provincial level and it even won two ridings in eastern Montreal and 8 of the 11 ridings of Quebec City. However, its strongest support base is still rural/small town and it won those aforementioned urban ridings on less than 40% of the vote apiece.
The Quebecois Liberal government suffered a heavy defeat, dropping from 41.5% of the vote to just 24.8%, the worst for any sitting Quebecois government since Union Nationale's defeat in 1970, from which it never recovered. Outgoing Premier Phillippe Couillard held his own riding but his party still lost 36 seats out of 68. A serious gaffe he made last month, claiming a family of 3 in Quebec could eat on $75 per week despite this being half the minimum grocery spend of the majority of Canadian families, played a significant role in his defeat. M. Couillard is just one of many politicians to have made such a serious underestimate in terms of the cost of living for an average family, but nevertheless it made him seem out of touch especially with poorer voters. A large proportion of their vote was lost to Quebec Solidaire, especially in eastern Montreal and Quebec City. The only riding the Liberals held in Quebec City was Jean-Talon, having won 8 of the 11 Quebec City ridings in 2014, and even then they largely held on due to the greater collapse of PQ's vote. In two regions containing key marginal ridings, Mauricie and Estrie, they lost every single riding in each region having held all of those regions' ridings in 2014. However, they did manage to win all ridings in western Montreal once again, partly due to the fact those ridings were already very safe indeed for the Liberals, and they also held all six of their ridings in east Montreal despite this being QS' strongest support base. Their support also proved resilient in the city of Laval, losing only Sainte-Rose to CAQ.
Just as CAQ made a historic breakthrough for the right in Quebec, QS made a significant breakthrough for the left in Quebec. Although QS finished fourth in vote share with 16.1% of the vote, they managed to win as many as 10 ridings due to concentrated support in east Montreal, the most progressive and radical part of Quebec politically, and due to gaining support from disenchanted urban PLQ and PQ voters elsewhere in Quebec. 10 seats, however, is not enough for official party status in Quebec provincially (12 seats or 20% of the vote are needed). Like CAQ, it has problems extending its support outside core areas; 6 of the 10 ridings won by QS this year are in eastern Montreal and 2 are in Quebec City. As QS voters and CAQ voters are much further apart than PLQ and PQ voters, and due to QS having an almost entirely urban base, QS has no realistic chance of making the same breakthrough as CAQ in future elections due to its low support and potential amongst non-metropolitan Quebecois voters.
Parti Quebecois managed an even worse repeat of 2014; their leader lost their riding for the second time in a row when Jean-Francois Lisee lost his riding of Rosemont to Quebec Solidaire. They won only 9 seats despite finishing third in the popular vote with a still significant 17.1% of the vote, and 7 of their remaining ridings are around the Gulf of Saint Laurence. In prosperous agricultural regions of Quebec they were wiped off the map by CAQ, whose overall victory came mainly from winning support from rural PQ voters with strong Quebec ties. It called for an electoral alliance with Quebec Solidaire for this election, which QS leader Manon Masse repudiated; this proved to be a serious mistake which cost it vital supporters in those prosperous rural regions, where many of its ridings were after their fall from power in 2014. Internal problems within Bloc Quebecois, which PQ is connected to unofficially, have exacerbated their problems with falling popularity and a lack of clear direction. In fact they lost official party status in Quebec as a result of their historic low 9 seats, meaning they will lose many speaking rights in the Quebec Assembly. In defeat, M.Lisee called for a merger between PQ and QS, something that given recent events is not going to happen in the near future.
Out of the parties who failed to win any ridings, the Green Party did best despite not coming close to winning anywhere, even in Montreal. Quebec has never been a strong province for the Canadian Greens and Quebec Solidaire has progressively won many potential Green voters despite QS not being explicitly green in any fashion. As a CAQ win was a foregone conclusion with the two largest parties leaking support so badly in spite of CAQ only polling above 40% in one single poll and otherwise never polling above the vote share it eventually received, turnout dropped sharply by five percentage points, from 71.4% to 66.4%, and QS more than doubling its 2014 vote share could not stem this, due to it having no chance of winning at all in the rural and most of the suburban areas that proved much more decisive to the outcome of this election.
In 2014,CAQ only won 21 seats, although they increased their vote share despite losing votes overall. This time, they won a secure majority of 23 with their seat total of 74, and in an exercise of the need for proportional representation to replace first past the post, they won that majority on only 37.4% of the vote. For the first time, four parties-CAQ, PQ, PLQ, and the socialist Quebec Solidaire-were competitive in the province in spite of first past the post being used, which normally leads to two-party dominance due to the effect of Duverger's law. Before this election, CAQ was mostly confined to the prosperous semi-agricultural regions of Quebec, such as Monteregie which is known for its beautiful vineyards, orchards, and Chaudière-Appalaches. It now holds nearly all rural ridings in Quebec at provincial level and it even won two ridings in eastern Montreal and 8 of the 11 ridings of Quebec City. However, its strongest support base is still rural/small town and it won those aforementioned urban ridings on less than 40% of the vote apiece.
The Quebecois Liberal government suffered a heavy defeat, dropping from 41.5% of the vote to just 24.8%, the worst for any sitting Quebecois government since Union Nationale's defeat in 1970, from which it never recovered. Outgoing Premier Phillippe Couillard held his own riding but his party still lost 36 seats out of 68. A serious gaffe he made last month, claiming a family of 3 in Quebec could eat on $75 per week despite this being half the minimum grocery spend of the majority of Canadian families, played a significant role in his defeat. M. Couillard is just one of many politicians to have made such a serious underestimate in terms of the cost of living for an average family, but nevertheless it made him seem out of touch especially with poorer voters. A large proportion of their vote was lost to Quebec Solidaire, especially in eastern Montreal and Quebec City. The only riding the Liberals held in Quebec City was Jean-Talon, having won 8 of the 11 Quebec City ridings in 2014, and even then they largely held on due to the greater collapse of PQ's vote. In two regions containing key marginal ridings, Mauricie and Estrie, they lost every single riding in each region having held all of those regions' ridings in 2014. However, they did manage to win all ridings in western Montreal once again, partly due to the fact those ridings were already very safe indeed for the Liberals, and they also held all six of their ridings in east Montreal despite this being QS' strongest support base. Their support also proved resilient in the city of Laval, losing only Sainte-Rose to CAQ.
Just as CAQ made a historic breakthrough for the right in Quebec, QS made a significant breakthrough for the left in Quebec. Although QS finished fourth in vote share with 16.1% of the vote, they managed to win as many as 10 ridings due to concentrated support in east Montreal, the most progressive and radical part of Quebec politically, and due to gaining support from disenchanted urban PLQ and PQ voters elsewhere in Quebec. 10 seats, however, is not enough for official party status in Quebec provincially (12 seats or 20% of the vote are needed). Like CAQ, it has problems extending its support outside core areas; 6 of the 10 ridings won by QS this year are in eastern Montreal and 2 are in Quebec City. As QS voters and CAQ voters are much further apart than PLQ and PQ voters, and due to QS having an almost entirely urban base, QS has no realistic chance of making the same breakthrough as CAQ in future elections due to its low support and potential amongst non-metropolitan Quebecois voters.
Parti Quebecois managed an even worse repeat of 2014; their leader lost their riding for the second time in a row when Jean-Francois Lisee lost his riding of Rosemont to Quebec Solidaire. They won only 9 seats despite finishing third in the popular vote with a still significant 17.1% of the vote, and 7 of their remaining ridings are around the Gulf of Saint Laurence. In prosperous agricultural regions of Quebec they were wiped off the map by CAQ, whose overall victory came mainly from winning support from rural PQ voters with strong Quebec ties. It called for an electoral alliance with Quebec Solidaire for this election, which QS leader Manon Masse repudiated; this proved to be a serious mistake which cost it vital supporters in those prosperous rural regions, where many of its ridings were after their fall from power in 2014. Internal problems within Bloc Quebecois, which PQ is connected to unofficially, have exacerbated their problems with falling popularity and a lack of clear direction. In fact they lost official party status in Quebec as a result of their historic low 9 seats, meaning they will lose many speaking rights in the Quebec Assembly. In defeat, M.Lisee called for a merger between PQ and QS, something that given recent events is not going to happen in the near future.
Out of the parties who failed to win any ridings, the Green Party did best despite not coming close to winning anywhere, even in Montreal. Quebec has never been a strong province for the Canadian Greens and Quebec Solidaire has progressively won many potential Green voters despite QS not being explicitly green in any fashion. As a CAQ win was a foregone conclusion with the two largest parties leaking support so badly in spite of CAQ only polling above 40% in one single poll and otherwise never polling above the vote share it eventually received, turnout dropped sharply by five percentage points, from 71.4% to 66.4%, and QS more than doubling its 2014 vote share could not stem this, due to it having no chance of winning at all in the rural and most of the suburban areas that proved much more decisive to the outcome of this election.
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