The Austrian parliamentary election of 2017: Osterreich wendet sich nach rechts
The Austrian parliamentary election of 2017 marked a sharp turn to the right in Austrian politics.
The main conservative party of Austria, the Austrian People's Party (OVP) which has governed almost always in a grand coalition with the social-democratic Social Democrats of Austria (SPO) except for an infamous period from 1999-2005 where the nationalist right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) were coalition partners, has topped the poll with a sharp increase in vote share from 23.7% to 31.2%, resulting in 15 extra seats. They managed this despite the setbacks they had been suffering in three of the last four years, especially when their presidential candidate finished a poor fourth in 2016. The SPO, meanwhile, only narrowly held onto second place after postal votes; before postal votes were counted (postal votes are always counted the day after all other votes due to quirks in Austrian electoral law) they were provisionally third behind the FPO (the OVP have only finished third once, in 1999 when they went into coalition with the FPO resulting in temporary sanctions from the EU, and the SPO have been first more often than not). The FPO managed as much as 26.0%, earning them an extra 11 seats for a total of 51, only one behind the SPO's total of 52. In the midst of this three-way squeeze the Austrian Liberals, NEOS, earned themselves an extra seat for a total of 10, and their support is expected to grow especially now that youthful OVP leader Sebastian Kurz, set to become the next Chancellor, prefers a coalition with FPO over another grand coalition with the SPO.
One of the biggest stories was the split of the Green vote by the Pilz list, led by long-standing representative Peter Pilz after he was deselected by the Austrian Greens convention. As a direct result, the Austrian Greens' vote fell to 3.8%, a result so bad they in fact lost every single one of their 24 seats; 2013 had been their best ever performance in an Austrian election. Peter, meanwhile, got his revenge by winning 8 seats and by beating his former colleagues rather handily, although overall he only managed 4.4% nevertheless. This is likely to cause a crisis in the Austrian Greens, who have already had to expel their youth section after protracted disputes. As I have said before, the gestalt theory applies to elections which is why a split in the Green vote turned many Greens away to the Social Democrats and resulted in the combined PILZ+GRUNE vote being only 8.2%, compared to the 12.4% the Austrian Greens won in 2013. The PILZ list won mostly on Peter's popularity, but it could also enshrine a permanent split in the Austrian green movement, just as the Green Liberals in Switzerland have done and to a minor extent the Ecological Democratic Party (ODP) in Germany.
The Austrian Young Greens, unsurprisingly, joined up with the Communist Party of Austria for this election, but their vote share actually fell slightly from 1.0% to 0.8%, falling behind protest party GILT! (My Vote Counts) who managed only 0.9%, well below even their modest expectations of ~2%; Die PARTEI only managed 1% in Germany so it seems there is just not enough room for satirical politics; also protest votes generally go to serious if extreme parties especially in rural areas. None of the other parties managed even 10,000 votes apiece, and the party who came bottom was the Men's Party of Austria, a men's rights activism group, who polled a derisory 220 votes (0.004%), which to cap it all was less than half of even their 2013 total of 490 votes, and they came bottom in 2013.
This lurch to the right in general along with rising support for the racist right mirrors trends that have been occurring in Central and Eastern Europe for the last four years, although it has resulted in a revival of liberal, pro-European conservatism which has also held back many traditional conservative parties in Central and Eastern Europe. As an example, the Czech Republic will likely demonstrate this when they go to the polls this week as ANO is set to become senior coalition partners with the formerly dominant ODS stuck in the doldrums.
UPDATE: Small corrections made after an Austrian resident noted a few inaccuracies.
The main conservative party of Austria, the Austrian People's Party (OVP) which has governed almost always in a grand coalition with the social-democratic Social Democrats of Austria (SPO) except for an infamous period from 1999-2005 where the nationalist right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) were coalition partners, has topped the poll with a sharp increase in vote share from 23.7% to 31.2%, resulting in 15 extra seats. They managed this despite the setbacks they had been suffering in three of the last four years, especially when their presidential candidate finished a poor fourth in 2016. The SPO, meanwhile, only narrowly held onto second place after postal votes; before postal votes were counted (postal votes are always counted the day after all other votes due to quirks in Austrian electoral law) they were provisionally third behind the FPO (the OVP have only finished third once, in 1999 when they went into coalition with the FPO resulting in temporary sanctions from the EU, and the SPO have been first more often than not). The FPO managed as much as 26.0%, earning them an extra 11 seats for a total of 51, only one behind the SPO's total of 52. In the midst of this three-way squeeze the Austrian Liberals, NEOS, earned themselves an extra seat for a total of 10, and their support is expected to grow especially now that youthful OVP leader Sebastian Kurz, set to become the next Chancellor, prefers a coalition with FPO over another grand coalition with the SPO.
One of the biggest stories was the split of the Green vote by the Pilz list, led by long-standing representative Peter Pilz after he was deselected by the Austrian Greens convention. As a direct result, the Austrian Greens' vote fell to 3.8%, a result so bad they in fact lost every single one of their 24 seats; 2013 had been their best ever performance in an Austrian election. Peter, meanwhile, got his revenge by winning 8 seats and by beating his former colleagues rather handily, although overall he only managed 4.4% nevertheless. This is likely to cause a crisis in the Austrian Greens, who have already had to expel their youth section after protracted disputes. As I have said before, the gestalt theory applies to elections which is why a split in the Green vote turned many Greens away to the Social Democrats and resulted in the combined PILZ+GRUNE vote being only 8.2%, compared to the 12.4% the Austrian Greens won in 2013. The PILZ list won mostly on Peter's popularity, but it could also enshrine a permanent split in the Austrian green movement, just as the Green Liberals in Switzerland have done and to a minor extent the Ecological Democratic Party (ODP) in Germany.
The Austrian Young Greens, unsurprisingly, joined up with the Communist Party of Austria for this election, but their vote share actually fell slightly from 1.0% to 0.8%, falling behind protest party GILT! (My Vote Counts) who managed only 0.9%, well below even their modest expectations of ~2%; Die PARTEI only managed 1% in Germany so it seems there is just not enough room for satirical politics; also protest votes generally go to serious if extreme parties especially in rural areas. None of the other parties managed even 10,000 votes apiece, and the party who came bottom was the Men's Party of Austria, a men's rights activism group, who polled a derisory 220 votes (0.004%), which to cap it all was less than half of even their 2013 total of 490 votes, and they came bottom in 2013.
This lurch to the right in general along with rising support for the racist right mirrors trends that have been occurring in Central and Eastern Europe for the last four years, although it has resulted in a revival of liberal, pro-European conservatism which has also held back many traditional conservative parties in Central and Eastern Europe. As an example, the Czech Republic will likely demonstrate this when they go to the polls this week as ANO is set to become senior coalition partners with the formerly dominant ODS stuck in the doldrums.
UPDATE: Small corrections made after an Austrian resident noted a few inaccuracies.
As always thank you Alan, a particularly informative and detailed analysis. Could you share the reasons behind the Young Greens' expulsion? History suggests that when a party expels it's young members it is on a road to nowhere - a small recent example in this country was of the already declining and rotting SWP ejecting many student members who objected to the predatory behaviour of a leading party member.
ReplyDeleteA blog on the reasons behind "the split of the Green vote by the Pilz list, led by long-standing representative Peter Pilz after he was deselected by the Austrian Greens convention" would be good - as it is difficult to find out why online.
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