The Czech election of 2017: sail, sail, sail towards liberalism
The Czech election of 2017 delivered a very dramatic result-just like the Czech election of 2013, one of the first I analysed.
ANO, the relatively new (de facto) pro-EU liberal-conservative party led by the second richest man in the Czech Republic, scored a decisive victory as was expected, winning 29.64% of the vote and topping the poll in every region of the Czech Republic, even Prague, the capital. Andrej Babis, formerly Deputy Prime Minister, is now set to become the next Czech PM although he must still be careful about his choice of coalition partners. ANO has been able to do this by presenting a "big tent" ideology similar to that promoted by Italy's Five Star Movement and by assembling a large protest vote, especially in rural areas formerly loyal to the Civic Democrats. The Civic Democrats surprisingly came second, but it was a distant second with only 11.32%, less than 4% more than what they managed in their 2013 drubbing when they lost almost 3/4 of their seats. They only managed to win 25 seats, less than 1/3 of ANO's final total of 78. ANO has effectively replaced the Civic Democrats in many quarters, although the ODS still won a few wealthy districts in Prague.
It was the Pirate Party that came a surprisingly good third with 22 seats, and it came close to beating ANO in Prague (and topped the poll in six of Prague's more radical districts). They managed 10.74%, beyond that predicted even by optimistic polls, and this is the second best performance in a national election by any Pirate Party ever, bettered only by Iceland last year. They won over a very large proportion of younger voters and topped the poll amongst voters aged under 25, although many older voters have yet to warm to them. This good result is crucial at a low point for the Pirate Party movement; their German section did particularly badly last month and is all but finished for now.
Fourth came Freedom and Direct Democracy, originally a split from Dawn of Direct Democracy after its leader Tomo Okamura fell out with the rest of his original party's leadership (Dawn of Direct Democracy decided not to even contest this election) with 10.6% and 22 seats, a clear testament to Tomo's personal charisma and of most right-wing Eurosceptics rallying behind it. By the standards of Eurosceptic right-wing parties, though, it is not a particularly remarkable performance and shows that the Czech Republic is turning away from right-wing populism at a time when it has become increasingly popular in many countries. The Communists, despite being in opposition, achieved their worst ever performance, dropping from 33 seats to just 15, and they are expected to decline further as their older voters die off with few young voters to replace them. The post-communist generation (born after the Velvet Revolution of 1989) have little time for the Communists of Bohemia and Moravia, especially in cities. Opinion polls by age released just before the election showed Communist support of 18% for voters aged over 65, but of just 1.5% for voters aged 18-24. The majority of Communist Party members in the Czech Republic are also aged over 60; leader Vojtech Filip is himself 62. Many old communist or otherwise far-left parties in Europe have similar problems to the KSCM. It was the governing Social Democrats who polled worse even that, however, as they fell from 1st to 6th place and dropped from 50 seats to just 15, worse even than the decline of the ODS in 2013. Normally it is the junior coalition partner who takes the biggest fall when the governing party fails, but ANO's more "mass movement" style structure and newfound popularity allowed it to absorb a large proportion of moderate Social Democratic (CSSD) voters. ANO's rise also almost caused the demise of TOP 09, who were predicted to lose all representation but survived in the end, albeit with their seat total reduced to just 7. The Christian Democrats also returned but lost 4 seats, and STAN (Mayors and Independents list) who were originally going to contest the election in coalition with KDU-CSL until KDU-CSL ended the pact, managed to win 6 seats, with a particularly strong performance in Central Bohemia, which surrounds Prague.
One unfortunate story in this election is that the Green Party lost more than half of its votes, dropping to 1.46% and they did not achieve 5% in any Czech district, not even in any of the districts of Prague (they did achieve 6.08% among expatriate voters, though), a far cry from their leader's prediction of 6-8% of the vote earlier this year. The Pirate Party's rise took the wind out of their sails and left them marooned; in all the districts where the Pirate Party topped the poll, the Green vote in said district was at least twice their national average. The Pirates appeal to largely the same base as the Greens: young, intelligent, urban, and well-educated middle-class voters of radical leanings of some type. With the Pirates now in the Czech Parliament, it will be a long time before the Greens regain representation there (they had 6 seats from 2006 to 2010, and their then leader, Martin Barzcik, was Environment Minister during that time). Even SVOBODNI (the Party of Free Citizens) managed a slightly better result despite a decline in Euroscepticism in the Czech Republic, A new Eurosceptic party, the Realists, did not even manage half of the Green vote, and the de facto neo-Nazi "Workers' Party of Social Justice" (DSSS) lost over 3/4 of even its low 2013 vote, dropping to 0.20%. Nevertheless, 15 other minor parties could not achieve even that total, which amounted to just 10,402 Czech votes. The wooden spoon this year went to the Czech National Front (just as bad as the DSSS) with 117 votes.
Theoretically, ANO and ODS can form a coalition by themselves, but ODS' association with the old Czech political establishment disliked by ANO voters means that such a coalition is not practicable in the current circumstances, except as a back-up option. Technically, the current ANO-CSSD-KDU-CSL coalition can continue (total seats: 103/200) but it is not certain that it will continue; the Christian Democrats are becoming increasingly wary of ANO as their former desire to form a pact with STAN showed.
This Czech election bucks the trend towards the populist right that has been seen to one extent or another in the last three years in many European countries. Eurosceptic and anti-EU parties have overall lost considerable support; officially Eurosceptic/anti-EU parties overall represent just 62 of the 200 seats in the new Czech Parliament, 16 less than that achieved by pro-European ANO alone. Undoubtedly this will be welcomed by younger and more progressive Central and Eastern Europeans, whose nations joined the EU much later than those in western and northern Europe (even accounting for those who joined after the fall of the Berlin Wall) and whose politicians have historically been more Eurosceptic overall.
ANO, the relatively new (de facto) pro-EU liberal-conservative party led by the second richest man in the Czech Republic, scored a decisive victory as was expected, winning 29.64% of the vote and topping the poll in every region of the Czech Republic, even Prague, the capital. Andrej Babis, formerly Deputy Prime Minister, is now set to become the next Czech PM although he must still be careful about his choice of coalition partners. ANO has been able to do this by presenting a "big tent" ideology similar to that promoted by Italy's Five Star Movement and by assembling a large protest vote, especially in rural areas formerly loyal to the Civic Democrats. The Civic Democrats surprisingly came second, but it was a distant second with only 11.32%, less than 4% more than what they managed in their 2013 drubbing when they lost almost 3/4 of their seats. They only managed to win 25 seats, less than 1/3 of ANO's final total of 78. ANO has effectively replaced the Civic Democrats in many quarters, although the ODS still won a few wealthy districts in Prague.
It was the Pirate Party that came a surprisingly good third with 22 seats, and it came close to beating ANO in Prague (and topped the poll in six of Prague's more radical districts). They managed 10.74%, beyond that predicted even by optimistic polls, and this is the second best performance in a national election by any Pirate Party ever, bettered only by Iceland last year. They won over a very large proportion of younger voters and topped the poll amongst voters aged under 25, although many older voters have yet to warm to them. This good result is crucial at a low point for the Pirate Party movement; their German section did particularly badly last month and is all but finished for now.
Fourth came Freedom and Direct Democracy, originally a split from Dawn of Direct Democracy after its leader Tomo Okamura fell out with the rest of his original party's leadership (Dawn of Direct Democracy decided not to even contest this election) with 10.6% and 22 seats, a clear testament to Tomo's personal charisma and of most right-wing Eurosceptics rallying behind it. By the standards of Eurosceptic right-wing parties, though, it is not a particularly remarkable performance and shows that the Czech Republic is turning away from right-wing populism at a time when it has become increasingly popular in many countries. The Communists, despite being in opposition, achieved their worst ever performance, dropping from 33 seats to just 15, and they are expected to decline further as their older voters die off with few young voters to replace them. The post-communist generation (born after the Velvet Revolution of 1989) have little time for the Communists of Bohemia and Moravia, especially in cities. Opinion polls by age released just before the election showed Communist support of 18% for voters aged over 65, but of just 1.5% for voters aged 18-24. The majority of Communist Party members in the Czech Republic are also aged over 60; leader Vojtech Filip is himself 62. Many old communist or otherwise far-left parties in Europe have similar problems to the KSCM. It was the governing Social Democrats who polled worse even that, however, as they fell from 1st to 6th place and dropped from 50 seats to just 15, worse even than the decline of the ODS in 2013. Normally it is the junior coalition partner who takes the biggest fall when the governing party fails, but ANO's more "mass movement" style structure and newfound popularity allowed it to absorb a large proportion of moderate Social Democratic (CSSD) voters. ANO's rise also almost caused the demise of TOP 09, who were predicted to lose all representation but survived in the end, albeit with their seat total reduced to just 7. The Christian Democrats also returned but lost 4 seats, and STAN (Mayors and Independents list) who were originally going to contest the election in coalition with KDU-CSL until KDU-CSL ended the pact, managed to win 6 seats, with a particularly strong performance in Central Bohemia, which surrounds Prague.
One unfortunate story in this election is that the Green Party lost more than half of its votes, dropping to 1.46% and they did not achieve 5% in any Czech district, not even in any of the districts of Prague (they did achieve 6.08% among expatriate voters, though), a far cry from their leader's prediction of 6-8% of the vote earlier this year. The Pirate Party's rise took the wind out of their sails and left them marooned; in all the districts where the Pirate Party topped the poll, the Green vote in said district was at least twice their national average. The Pirates appeal to largely the same base as the Greens: young, intelligent, urban, and well-educated middle-class voters of radical leanings of some type. With the Pirates now in the Czech Parliament, it will be a long time before the Greens regain representation there (they had 6 seats from 2006 to 2010, and their then leader, Martin Barzcik, was Environment Minister during that time). Even SVOBODNI (the Party of Free Citizens) managed a slightly better result despite a decline in Euroscepticism in the Czech Republic, A new Eurosceptic party, the Realists, did not even manage half of the Green vote, and the de facto neo-Nazi "Workers' Party of Social Justice" (DSSS) lost over 3/4 of even its low 2013 vote, dropping to 0.20%. Nevertheless, 15 other minor parties could not achieve even that total, which amounted to just 10,402 Czech votes. The wooden spoon this year went to the Czech National Front (just as bad as the DSSS) with 117 votes.
Theoretically, ANO and ODS can form a coalition by themselves, but ODS' association with the old Czech political establishment disliked by ANO voters means that such a coalition is not practicable in the current circumstances, except as a back-up option. Technically, the current ANO-CSSD-KDU-CSL coalition can continue (total seats: 103/200) but it is not certain that it will continue; the Christian Democrats are becoming increasingly wary of ANO as their former desire to form a pact with STAN showed.
This Czech election bucks the trend towards the populist right that has been seen to one extent or another in the last three years in many European countries. Eurosceptic and anti-EU parties have overall lost considerable support; officially Eurosceptic/anti-EU parties overall represent just 62 of the 200 seats in the new Czech Parliament, 16 less than that achieved by pro-European ANO alone. Undoubtedly this will be welcomed by younger and more progressive Central and Eastern Europeans, whose nations joined the EU much later than those in western and northern Europe (even accounting for those who joined after the fall of the Berlin Wall) and whose politicians have historically been more Eurosceptic overall.
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