My analysis of local by-elections from 19/10/17 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of this week's local by-elections in Britain were as follows:

Epping Forest DC, Lower Sheering: Conservative 220 (80.1%), Liberal Democrats 52 (19.9%).

Gravesham BC, Meopham North: Conservative 721 (64.0%, +6.5%), Liberal Democrats 192 (17.0%), Labour 155 (13.8%, -4.8%), UKIP 59 (5.2%, -18.7%).

Hartlepool UA, Seaton: Putting Hartlepool First 474 (31.6%), Independent Little 425 (28.3%, +15.6%), Labour 275 (18.3%, -4.9%), Conservative 180 (12.0%, -0.9%), UKIP 148 (9.9%, -13.8%). Putting Hartlepool First gain from Independent.

Lincoln BC, Carholme: Labour 922 (63.4%, +4.5%), Conservative 368 (25.3%, +6.2%), Green 83 (5.7%, -6.8%), Liberal Democrats 82 (5.6%, -3.8%).

Nottingham UA, Basford: Labour 1409 (68.2%, +19.3%), Conservative 408 (19.7%, +2.5%), UKIP 119 (5.8%, -11.4%), Green 81 (3.9%, -9.6%), Liberal Democrats 49 (2.4%).
 
Nottingham UA, Bestwood: Labour 1280 (63.4%, +8.2%), UKIP 301 (14.9%, -7.1%), Conservative 297 (14.7%, -1.2%), Liberal Democrats 57 (2.8%), Green 50 (2.5%, -4.4%), Bus-Pass Elvis 34 (1.7%).

Nottingham UA, Bulwell Forest: Labour 1420 (54.4%, +9.1%), Conservative 966 (37.0%, +16.7%), UKIP 141 (5.4%, -14.5%), Green 52 (2.0%, -5.9%), Liberal Democrats 31 (1.2%, -3.2%).

Wigan MBC, Astley & Mosley Common: Labour 773 (46.0%, -5.3%), Conservative 604 (35.9%, +11.4%),UKIP 185 (11.0%, -13.2%), Liberal Democrats 73 (4.3%), Green 46 (2.7%).

NOTE: There was also a vacancy in Haseley Brook, South Oxfordshire, whose by-election would have taken place this week had there been more than one candidate; the Conservative candidate was elected unopposed.

Right in Nottingham where I live, the Green Party sadly achieved some particularly poor results which cannot be explained merely by Liberal Democrat intervention in wards they had not stood in before (the Liberal Democrats had stood in the ward of Bulwell Forest in 2015), although they beat the Liberal Democrats in two of the three local by-elections in Nottingham, all in the Nottingham North constituency; in fact the former councillor in Basford whose resignation caused that by-election, Alex Norris, is now Nottingham North's MP. The Greens slipped back in Carholme, Lincoln as well but not quite to the extent they did in all three wards of Nottingham which had by-elections this week.

The considerable pro-Conservative swing of 8.35% in Astley & Mosley Common is indicative of even when Labour lead in the polls, they are still losing hold of working-class voters in old mining and industrial towns; both Leigh and Makerfield showed swings from Labour to the Conservatives in June this year and Wigan only showed a 1.1% swing to Labour. Leigh and Wigan also recorded 2 of only 40 saved deposits for UKIP in June.

Local groups continue to grow in popularity in towns like Hartlepool, but they also face more competition, and from well-known independents as well. The marginality of the by-election in Seaton, representing the picturesque Seaton Carew seaside resort near Hartlepool, is testament to this.

This week, the Czech Republic will go to the polls, with Japan holding its election this Monday, and Iceland's snap election coming next Sunday. The results in each case are predicted to be very interesting, to say the least.

I give my thanks to all who came to the #metoo mural in Trafalgar Square today to end violence against women and general misogyny (e.g. street harassment), and those who gave support when they could not make it to London to make their mark on that mural.



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