My analysis of by-elections from 12/10/17

Readers, the results of this week's UK local by-elections were as follows:

Aberdeenshire UA, Invernurie & District: Conservative 1672 (48.5%,+12.6%), SNP 1146 (33.3%, +5.7%), Liberal Democrats 295 (8.2%, -3.2%), Labour 276 (8.0%, +3.7%), Green 56 (1.9%). Conservative elected at stage 4.

Ashfield DC, Hucknall North: Ashfield Independent 1329 (51.1%, +40.3%), Labour 629 (24.2%, -5.8%), Conservative 532 (20.4%, -10.7%), UKIP 66 (2.5%, -17.4%), Liberal Democrats 46 (1.8%). Ashfield Independent gain from Conservative.

Sheffield MBC, Beighton: Labour 1640 (48.6%, +5.9%), Liberal Democrats 899 (26.6%, +21.2%), Conservative 552 (16.3%, -1.4%), UKIP 212 (6.3%, -20.0%), Green 74 (2.2%, -2.6%).

Tamworth BC, Boleshall: Labour 643 (53.4%, +3.9%), Conservative 561 (46.6%, +22.2%).

Three Rivers DC, Oxley Hall & Hayling: Liberal Democrats 672 (41.3%, +18.5%), Conservative 461 (28.3%, -8.4%), Labour 428 (26.3%, +4.4%), UKIP 35 (2.2%, -16.4%), Green 31 (1.9%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2015.

Wakefield MBC, Stanley & Outwood East: Labour 1353 (51.0%,+2.4%), Conservative 847 (31.9%, +7.3%), Liberal Democrats 165 (6.2%, +2.3%), Yorkshire Party 153 (5.8%), UKIP 136 (5.1%). All changes are since 2016.

Warrington UA, Chapelford & Old Hall: Labour 957 (54.7%, +9.5%), Conservative 353 (20.2%, +4.3%), Liberal Democrats 312 (17.8%, -1.4%), UKIP 86 (4.9%, -7.4%), Green 43 (2.5%, -5.1%).

Wyre DC, Rossall: Labour 610 (50.1%, +12.8%), Conservative 427 (35.1%, +5.7%), Independent 180 (14.8%).

All eight of these by-election results followed general trends seen in recent local by-elections in wards similar to these, with the exception of Beighton in Sheffield. This is due to the considerable unpopularity of Sheffield City Council over the unnecessary and disgraceful felling of trees, which caused a sharp swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats in a ward whose demographics are generally not supportive of the Liberal Democrats even in fruitful years. What is most interesting about these by-elections is that three of the eight were caused by the resignation of councillors who had become MPs: Ben Bradley (now Conservative MP for Mansfield, and in fact the very first from his party to represent the Mansfield constituency), Colin Clark (now MP for Gordon and surprise victor against Alex Salmond), and Faisal Rashid (now MP for Warrington South). Labour has done reasonably well despite nearly losing the Boleshall by-election in Tamworth, although as Tamworth has been trending inexorably towards the Conservatives (I have elaborated on this before) this is not a surprise. The Conservatives also increased their majority over the SNP in Aberdeenshire, but overall did not have a very productive night, especially when they finished third in a seat they had won in 2015 and nearly finished third in one of the many Three Rivers wards that is strictly Lib Dem vs. Conservative. Lib Dem fortunes have been mixed this week; the Lib Dems' capture of Oxhey Hall & Hayling was easy but they fell from second to third in Chapelford & Old Hall in Warrington, came last behind UKIP in Hucknall North, and slipped further backwards in Aberdeenshire. UKIP collapsed as per usual, but despite this UKIP candidates still beat Green Party candidates in every contest featuring both a UKIP and a Green candidate. The Yorkshire Party is gaining a steadily growing following in rural Yorkshire, shown by it beating UKIP and nearly beating the Liberal Democrats in Stanley & Outwood East, an increasingly popular commuter area for middle-class commuters to Leeds.









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