Analysis of local by-elections from 6/10/17

The results of the eight local by-elections in Britain of this week were as follows:

Adur DC, Mash Barn: Labour 490 (49.3%, +29.7%), Conservative 384 (38.6%, +16.1%), Liberal Democrats 89 (9.0%, -6.6%), Green 31 (3.1%). Labour gain from UKIP; all changes are since 2016.

Cheshire East UA, Crewe East: Labour 1174 (60.7%, +15.2%), Conservative 542 (28.0%, +6.4%), UKIP 158 (8.2%, -14.0%), Green 59 (3.1%, -7.6%).

Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Kenilworth: Labour 383 (37.8%, -8.5%), Conservative 341 (33.7%, -20.0%), Liberal Democrats 144 (14.2%), Independent 91 (9.0%), UKIP 54 (5.3%). Labour gain from Conservative.

Hinckley & Bosworth DC, Burbage Sketchley & Stretton: Conservative 822 (39.0%, -3.8%), Liberal Democrats 785 (37.3%, +8.1%), Labour 321 (15.2%, +2.2%), UKIP 120 (5.7%, -9.2%), Independent 57 (2.7%).

Redcar & Cleveland UA, St Germain's: Liberal Democrats 661 (38.4%, +9.0%), Labour 368 (21.4%, +1.0%), Independent Lambert 261 (15.2%), Independent Jeffries 225 (13.1%), Conservative 174 (10.1%, -3.2%), Green 31 (1.8%, -9.3%).

Salford MBC, Claremont: Labour 718 (46.5%, -1.5%), Conservative 447 (29.0%, +10.8%), Independent 171 (11.1%), Liberal Democrats 162 (10.5%), Green 46 (3.0%, -6.1%). All changes are since 2016.

South Buckinghamshire DC, Burnham Rent Rise & Taplow: Conservative 699 (65.9%, +27.0%), Labour 166 (15.6%, -1.3%), Liberal Democrats 136 (12.8%), Green 60 (5.7%, -8.5%).

Warwick DC, Stoneleigh & Cubbington: Conservative 502 (52.6%, +12.0%), Labour 311 (32.6%, +16.9%), Liberal Democrats 113 (11.8%), Green 29 (3.0%, -7.9%).

Labour's victory along the once solidly Conservative south coast of West Sussex is not surprising given a recent local by-election victory in nearby Worthing, although Mash Barn ward has never elected a Labour councillor before. The disappearance of UKIP did boost the Conservative vote but not enough for them to recapture the seat, especially with the Liberal Democrat vote going towards Labour. Conversely, that same Liberal Democrat vote proved to be a decisive factor in Labour's by-election win in Borehamwood, a town which on first impressions should be vulnerable to Theresa May's style of Conservatism. This proved to be far from the case, especially after Theresa May's now notorious conference speech earlier this week. The Conservatives made up for this elsewhere by achieving a 6.15% swing against Labour in Salford, by absorbing crucial votes in local by-elections in South Buckinghamshire and Warwick, and by narrowly defending a vulnerable rural ward against the Liberal Democrats, who at the same time increased their majority in a marginal ward against Labour in Redcar & Cleveland; the good performance of Independents inadvertently harmed Labour's attempts to capture it. The Greens continue to struggle in wards which they are not in a position to win, and two-party squeezes are getting tighter and tighter even if they are not between Conservative and Labour.

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