My analysis of British local by-elections from 26/10/2017

Readers, the results of this week's local by-elections in Britain were as follows:

Charnwood BC, Loughborough Hastings (2 seats): Labour 676/648 (63.5%, +18.4%), Conservative 228 (21.9%,-0.8%), UKIP 95/79 (8.3%, -9.3%), Green 73/58 (6.3%, -8.3%).

Derbyshire Dales DC, Ashbourne South: Conservative 495 (46.2%, -6.4%), Liberal Democrats 334 (31.2%), Labour (22.6%, -2.5%).

Herefordshire UA, Kings Acre: Conservative 302 (38.5%), Independent 162 (20.6%), It's Our County 156 (19.9%, -30.2%), Liberal Democrats 90 (11.5%, -21.9%), Labour 75 (9.6%). Conservative gain from It's Our County (Herefordshire).

Kirklees MBC, Batley East: Labour 2640 (77.0%, +7.2%), Conservative 443 (12.9%, -1.0%), Local Independents Heavy Wool District 141 (4.1%), Liberal Democrats 136 (4.0%, -1.0%), Green 70 (2.0%, -1.0%).

Mid Sussex DC, East Grinstead Imberhorne: Conservative 540 (58.5%, -1.2%), Liberal Democrats 206 (22.3%), Labour 110 (11.9%, -9.1%), Independent 67 (7.3%).

Tameside MBC, Droylsden East: Labour 1064 (60.3%, +8.9%), Conservative 577 (32.7%, +23.6%), Liberal Democrats 63 (3.6%), Green 60 (3.4%, -2.5%).

NB: "Local Independents Heavy Wool District" is a localist party formed by Aleks Lukic, a former member of UKIP (he stood as an Independent in Batley & Spen in 2017, where he stood for UKIP in 2015).

The Conservative gain in Herefordshire was rather surprising, given the relative unpopularity of the Conservative administration in Herefordshire, whose majority is just 3 (it was 1 before the election; one seat is vacant and it has not been filled yet) and the comparative popularity of the localist It's Our County group. The Conservatives also did not field a candidate in that ward in 2015, which in rural counties like Herefordshire almost never happens.

The Liberal Democrats' candidature in two small town wards where they had not stood in 2015 made only a small impact on the Conservative vote, and in fact won over more Labour votes. The Greens did not stand in either ward (although there was a Green candidate in Ashbourne South in 2015) and there is a lot of Green potential in these rural towns, more so in East Grinstead as past results show; in retrospect Green candidates should have stood in both wards.

Meanwhile in the metropolitan boroughs, former UKIP candidate Aleks Lukic (also a teacher at the same grammar school the late Jo Cox MP went to) showed how weak his personal vote really is once again-after achieving just 2% in Batley & Spen in the last general election he only managed 4.1% in the Batley East by-election, just five votes ahead of the Liberal Democrats, even though his former party did not even stand. It predictably proved to be a remarkably easy hold for Labour, as did Droylsden East in Greater Manchester. UKIP's absence did allow for a very large boost to the Conservative vote, however, following a trend seen in many working-class metropolitan suburbs, especially those with a low BAME population.

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