On the Icelandic election of 2017-Left Foot Forward, But Not Very Far After All
The Icelandic parliamentary election of 2017 was widely predicted to bring in a record surge for the Left-Green Movement of Iceland, led by popular progressive Katrin Jakobsdottir.
It was not quite to be, however. The Left-Green Movement lost considerable momentum just when they needed it before the end of the campaign, partly due to attack advertisements from the ruling conservative Independence Party. The Left-Greens added only one seat to their total, bringing up them to 11, although even a one-seat improvement is very useful in Iceland as their Althing has only 63 members. Nevertheless, last minute tactics were not enough to prevent losses by IP, who lost 5 seats bringing them down to 16, although given that the snap election was caused by a scandal involving a letter involving the Prime Minister's father (Benedikt Sveinsson wrote a letter recommending that a convicted child rapist have their "honour restored": http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41280080 ) these losses are not as bad as initially expected. In fact they still topped the poll in every Icelandic constituency despite the best efforts of the Left-Green movement, even in the capital, Reykjavik (which has two constituencies, North and South; Reykjavik North is more radical and progressive in political terms). The Pirate Party, meanwhile, was the biggest loser amongst parties of the Icelandic "left", losing 4 of its seats and slipping from third place to sixth place nationally. The Social Democrats, who could potentially have slipped into oblivion and below the 5% threshold after their disastrous 2016 result, experienced a crucial revival with their seat total increasing to 7; they also came third behind only IP and LG. The Centre Party, a split from the agrarian and Eurosceptic Progressive Party (ironically similar Scandinavian political parties are called the Centre Party, with other Scandinavian Progressive Parties being completely different things), managed 10.9% of the vote and 7 seats, with a key focus on populism and regional issues, thus preventing the Progressive Party from making any recovery from its 11 seat loss of 2016.
Bright Future, whose withdrawal from the governing coalition caused the snap election, found themselves locked out of the new Althing. They lost 5/6ths of their support, dropping from 7.2% to a derisory 1.2%, losing all 4 of their seats in the process. Another junior partner, the Reform Party, did not fare nearly as badly, losing only 3 of their 7 seats, making them the joint-smallest party in the 2017 Althing. The new People's Party, formed by disability rights activist Inga Saeland, did slightly better in vote share terms (6.9%) but only achieved 4 seats. The only two other parties that contested this election were the communist People's Front of Iceland, who polled only 375 votes partly due to not standing in every Icelandic constituency, and Dawn, whose support dropped to a tiny trickle when they only fielded a list in the South constituency, which achieved just 101 votes.
It is clear that Bjarni can no longer remain Prime Minister of Iceland, not only due to parliamentary losses but also the after-effects of the scandal, which has led to the repeal of the 77 year old 'restored honour' concept, which allowed people in Iceland convicted of serious crimes (even murder!) to apply to have civil rights restored on the basis of three good character recommendations and the President's signature. Under current Icelandic law, anyone convicted of a crime and sentenced to more than four months in prison for it is barred from standing for election or practising medicine or law, amongst other restrictions, without going through such procedures.The concept is currently being reviewed by the Icelandic Ministry of Justice; attempts to restore the concept will face substantial opposition from victims' rights advocates especially with regard to sex offences.
The Centre Party now holds the balance of power between the two "left" and "right" blocs in the Althing and obtaining its confidence and supply will be crucial for both Bjarni and Katrin in their quest to retain their position as PM or newly acquire it; it is highly likely that Katrin will be successful in this regard, especially since the People's Party is more likely to support her.
It was not quite to be, however. The Left-Green Movement lost considerable momentum just when they needed it before the end of the campaign, partly due to attack advertisements from the ruling conservative Independence Party. The Left-Greens added only one seat to their total, bringing up them to 11, although even a one-seat improvement is very useful in Iceland as their Althing has only 63 members. Nevertheless, last minute tactics were not enough to prevent losses by IP, who lost 5 seats bringing them down to 16, although given that the snap election was caused by a scandal involving a letter involving the Prime Minister's father (Benedikt Sveinsson wrote a letter recommending that a convicted child rapist have their "honour restored": http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41280080 ) these losses are not as bad as initially expected. In fact they still topped the poll in every Icelandic constituency despite the best efforts of the Left-Green movement, even in the capital, Reykjavik (which has two constituencies, North and South; Reykjavik North is more radical and progressive in political terms). The Pirate Party, meanwhile, was the biggest loser amongst parties of the Icelandic "left", losing 4 of its seats and slipping from third place to sixth place nationally. The Social Democrats, who could potentially have slipped into oblivion and below the 5% threshold after their disastrous 2016 result, experienced a crucial revival with their seat total increasing to 7; they also came third behind only IP and LG. The Centre Party, a split from the agrarian and Eurosceptic Progressive Party (ironically similar Scandinavian political parties are called the Centre Party, with other Scandinavian Progressive Parties being completely different things), managed 10.9% of the vote and 7 seats, with a key focus on populism and regional issues, thus preventing the Progressive Party from making any recovery from its 11 seat loss of 2016.
Bright Future, whose withdrawal from the governing coalition caused the snap election, found themselves locked out of the new Althing. They lost 5/6ths of their support, dropping from 7.2% to a derisory 1.2%, losing all 4 of their seats in the process. Another junior partner, the Reform Party, did not fare nearly as badly, losing only 3 of their 7 seats, making them the joint-smallest party in the 2017 Althing. The new People's Party, formed by disability rights activist Inga Saeland, did slightly better in vote share terms (6.9%) but only achieved 4 seats. The only two other parties that contested this election were the communist People's Front of Iceland, who polled only 375 votes partly due to not standing in every Icelandic constituency, and Dawn, whose support dropped to a tiny trickle when they only fielded a list in the South constituency, which achieved just 101 votes.
It is clear that Bjarni can no longer remain Prime Minister of Iceland, not only due to parliamentary losses but also the after-effects of the scandal, which has led to the repeal of the 77 year old 'restored honour' concept, which allowed people in Iceland convicted of serious crimes (even murder!) to apply to have civil rights restored on the basis of three good character recommendations and the President's signature. Under current Icelandic law, anyone convicted of a crime and sentenced to more than four months in prison for it is barred from standing for election or practising medicine or law, amongst other restrictions, without going through such procedures.The concept is currently being reviewed by the Icelandic Ministry of Justice; attempts to restore the concept will face substantial opposition from victims' rights advocates especially with regard to sex offences.
The Centre Party now holds the balance of power between the two "left" and "right" blocs in the Althing and obtaining its confidence and supply will be crucial for both Bjarni and Katrin in their quest to retain their position as PM or newly acquire it; it is highly likely that Katrin will be successful in this regard, especially since the People's Party is more likely to support her.
Again, Alan, thanks for a very informative analysis of elections in a fellow European country. I note, though, that going along with the current distrust amongst some in the GP of concepts such as left/right and progressive/regressive you choose to use the term 'left' in your article. The use of the term 'left' in parenthesis has traditionally been used by those who consider themselves the true left as an insult against those who claim to be left - whereas I think you are using it for a different reason. Connected with this I would like to offer a few words of caution to those in the GP who use the formula that the GP is neither 'left' nor 'right' but 'forward' ( I have some sympathy with this in the sense that we are trying to forge a new kind of politics that is both genuinely inclusive and allows ordinary people to democratically decide how to plan the use of the world's finite resources on every level from housing to saving the planet - however that , in present day terms means, we are very much on the left ). It really is the case though that the 'neither left nor right but forward' concept can be, and historically has been, used by those seeking to move to the right e.g. the SDP when it split to the right from Labour and, of course, Hitler's Nazis, one of whose main propaganda slogans was 'neither communism or capitalism. In other words, it is an empty slogan that can mean all things to all people. Chris Glenn
ReplyDelete