Alan's Green Thoughts

Readers, the results of recent British local by-elections (one from 20 February and seven from 27 February) were as follows: (20/2/20) Middlesbrough UA, Coulby Newham: Conservative 679 (49.0%, -5.5%), Labour 279 (19.9%, -25.6%), Liberal Democrats 259 (18.4%), Independent (Lowther) 90 (6.6%), Independent (Morrish) 88 (6.3%). (27/2/20) Blaby DC, Millfield: Labour 228 (52.2%, -1.0%), Conservative 188 (43.0%, -3.8%), Green 21 (4.8%). Cambridgeshire CC, Duxford: Liberal Democrats 1607 (59.6%, +26.3%), Conservative 1090 (40.4%, -14.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Labour and UKIP did not stand] Cheshire East UA, Crewe South: Labour 854 (54.1%, -6.7%), Conservative 566 (35.8%, +9.8%), Green 69 (4.4%), Independent (Cartlidge) 57 (3.6%), Independent (Silvester) 34 (2.2%). [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Hillingdon LBC, Hillingdon East: Conservative 1430 (68.8%, +9.6%), Labour 488 (23.5%, -13.0%), Liberal Democrats 86 (4.1%), Green 59 (2.8%), UKIP 16 (0.8%). [Democr...

Yesterday, African-American NASA mathematician Katherine Johnson, whose talents ensured that the historic Apollo 11 Moon landing went smoothly and successfully, passed away. Katherine Johnson (nee Coleman; also Goble) faced many barriers and hardships on her way to such an important and valuable role. She grew up in the Deep South during the now infamous "Jim Crow" era, where many states (including West Virginia where she was born and raised) legally enforced segregation in most spheres of life, where African Americans were routinely denied basic rights, and where women were still expected for the most part to be housewives and carers, meaning Mrs Johnson faced two sets of barriers in her path. She was one of the first African Americans to be admitted to a graduate mathematics program in the USA, but had to temporarily pause her ambitions when she had her first child by James Goble. Mr Goble died of a brain tumour in 1956, meaning that she also became a single parent for th...

The recent Landtag (state) election in the Hanseatic City of Hamburg, Germany, kept the Green Wave rolling-and delivered a heavy blow to the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The Greens more than doubled their seat total in Hamburg, jumping from 15 to 33 seats, and crucially second place behind the dominant SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany); furthermore they topped the poll in many of Hamburg's Wahlkreise , which unlike in many Lander are not single seat constituencies but instead are small open list PR constituencies. The CDU, meanwhile, were pushed into a poor third place despite only losing 5 seats; 11.2% is the worst CDU vote share recorded in any modern Landtag election. Their particularly poor performance, even by Hamburg standards, is attributable to turmoil in the CDU nationally after Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer pulled out of the race to succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor amid speculation that a much more conservative CDU leader like Friedrich Merz would be requ...

It has been proposed that the licence fee, which not only covers the BBC but also ITV and Channel Four, could be abolished in just 7 years' time . Even though this would make it easier to access terrestrial channels at first, the consequences for public media which can be held to account will be disastrous. The licence fee was invented for a very good reason-to ensure that public television and radio in Britain could be supported by those who wanted to enjoy it but without unfairly taxing those who could not afford a television and radio or, in this digital age of ours, consider both unnecessary when a laptop can function as both a television and a radio, and simultaneously. It also ensures that private television companies such as Sky and Netflix do not have an excessively unfair commercial advantage in the media market, meaning it can ensure there is at least a little balance in media coverage, especially given the dominance of just five billionaires across much of the steadily...

"Oh I see. You're just a bunch of yes men. You were making all the wrong moves and you were too gutless to tell me!" -C. Montgomery Burns commenting on his bankruptcy, "The Simpsons". Readers, the results of British local by-elections from yesterday were as follows: Derbyshire CC, Whaley Bridge: Labour 1851 (50.4%, +22.8%), Conservative 1048 (28.5%,-6.1%), Liberal Democrats 721 (19.6%, -14.0%), Paddy Bann 52 (1.4%). Labour gain from Conservative. [ Green Party did not stand ] East Staffordshire BC, Yoxall: Conservative 431 (78.5%, -9.0%), Labour 118 (21.5%, -9.0%).  Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Kenilworth : Conservative 776 (49.0%, +2.4%), Labour 655 (41.3%, -12.1%), Liberal Democrats 104 (6.6%), Green 50 (3.2%). Conservative gain from Labour. Huntingdonshire DC, St Ives East: Conservative 558 (46.5%,+0.9%), Independent (Pope) 429 (35.8%), Liberal Democrats 109 (9.1%, -15.7%), Labour 103 (8.6%, -20.9%). Thanet DC, Cliffsend & Pegwell: Conservative...

Two days ago, Boris Johnson, on the insistence of his chief adviser Dominic Cummings despite as many as 60 Conservative MPs (mainly representing northern constituencies) opposing the project, signed approval for construction of HS2, even though the first stage will not be completed for another 10 years (with Manchester and Leeds not benefitting for another 20 years) and it will cause untold levels of destruction to ancient woodlands and countryside along its proposed route, especially around the Chiltern Hills Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. HS2 (High Speed 2) is expected to cost upwards of £100,000,000,000 at the end of it all, which is money desperately needed to restore usable rail links in the north and west of England in particular, not to mention plug gaps in other transport funding at a time when bus services are disappearing fast from rural areas. In the 10-20 years it will take to fully complete the HS2 project, technology and other railway developments will have made it...

The 2020 Irish general election produced the most sensational electoral results in the history of the Republic of Ireland.  Sinn Fein topped the poll in terms of 1st preference votes with 24.5%, although because of undernomination of candidates (following the nomination of three candidates instead of two in Donegal in 2016 which cost them a seat on transfers), their seat total only equalled that of Fianna Fail's 37 (excluding the Ceann Comhairle, or Speaker, who is automatically re-elected), since Fianna Fail nominated more candidates (twice as many as SF) and could pick up transfers more easily in their rural heartlands. The Brexit factor, which indirectly affects Ireland and not just due to the border issue, played a part in Sinn Fein's many victories; only 5 of the 42 nominated Sinn Fein candidates failed to be elected.  Fine Gael experienced a trouncing defeat this election, achieving their worst ever result (20.9%) but not their lowest number of TDs (35, as opposed to...

Because of the six month rule now in effect, it has been a slow last fortnight for local by-elections in Britain. The results from the most recent three local by-elections are as follows: (30/01/20) Suffolk CC, Newmarket & Red Lodge: Conservative 893 (50.3%, -0.2%), Liberal Democrats 315 (17.7%, +8.8%), West Suffolk Independents 248 (14.0%, +2.5%), Labour 198 (11.1%, -4.5%), Green 123 (6.9%).  West Suffolk DC, Newmarket North: Conservative 309 (42.4%, +8.5%), Liberal Democrats 130 (17.9%), West Suffolk Independents 118 (16.2%, -26.5%), Labour 73 (10.0%, -13.2%), Independent (Stennett) 54 (7.4%), Green 44 (6.5%). (06/02/20) Warrington UA, Burtonwood & Winwick: Labour 753 (58.9%, -3.1%), Conservative 469 (36.7%, +13.9%), Independent (Nicholls) 56 (4.4%). [Liberal Democrats did not stand] The Conservatives' "honeymoon period" continued to make its impact in these local elections, which accounts for the collapse of the West Suffolk Independents vote in th...

The Peruvian parliamentary election of 2020, called  after President Martin Vizcarra dissolved the Assembly of the Republic slightly early, became notable for the historic fragmentation of said Assembly (Peru's parliament) in political terms. Only one party, Popular Action (a liberal-conservative party) polled more than 10% of the votes cast, and even then its vote share was as low as 10.31%. Even in particularly fragmented systems using list-PR the party in pole position generally polls at least 20% of the votes cast; the vote shares obtained by parties in this Peruvian election make the Czech Republic look psephologically stable. This psephological fragmentation occurred despite the fact that there is a 5% electoral threshold in Peru, without any exemptions despite it being open-list representation.  The once-dominant Popular Force, the main vehicle for the neoconservative and clientelist Fujimorist ideology, was decimated in this election, dropping from 1st place and a ...

With the next set of British local council elections now only three months away, it is time to make a prediction, especially with UKIP and the Brexit Party disappearing from the psephological equation now that the UK has actually left the European Union. This year,a new unitary authority, Buckinghamshire (a merger of all district councils in Buckinghamshire, with the new wards actually based on the current county council divisions but with 3 councillors each), will be elected, and due to other council mergers and switches to full council elections from by thirds elections, fewer councils will have elections this year than in 2016.  Electorally, the Conservatives are having a "honeymoon period" under Boris Johnson's tenure-but it will likely not last long when the true consequences of Brexit become known. (NB: Only councils certain to change control this year, or that have a reasonable possibility of changing control this year, are listed): Labour lose to NOC (No O...

It finally happened. At 11:00pm on 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom formally left the European Union. Why did it happen? 1. The drip-drip propoganda of the conservative press. By "conservative press" I am referring to: The Sun, The Times, and Sunday Times (News International, owned by Rupert Murdoch), the Daily Mail (Rothermere Trust, via the 4th Viscount Rothermere), the Daily Express (Reach plc, controlled by Richard Desmond), and the Daily Telegraph (Telegraph Media Group Ltd, controlled by the Barclay Brothers). For many years they had repeatedly and consistently published anti-EU stories based on the distortion of facts and/or outright lies. Despite this they still cumulatively maintained dominance over the declining newspaper readership market. When the European Union membership referendum was finally called in 2016, the drip-drip propoganda's effects struck hard. 2. The failure of the metropolitan intelligentsia to connect with those who felt left behind...