The Thuringian election of 2019: Ramelow remains but faces coalition crisis
The Thuringian election of 2019 is a notable one in the modern political history of German Landtag state elections.
It was the first Landtag election in the modern era of German politics (i.e. since the reunification of Germany in 1990) where neither the Christian Democratic Union nor the Social Democratic Party of Germany finished in the top two, and the first where Die Linke topped the poll.
Notably, Die Linke in Thuringia (Thüringen) is led by Bodo Ramelow, one of the more moderate Die Linke politicians, and he has acquired a strong personal vote along the way. For the third consecutive Thuringian election, Die Linke improved on its vote share and seats won, bucking the trend in former East German states, especially Brandenburg and Saxony. Die Linke polled 31%, the highest in any former East German Land in the modern German political era, giving it 29 seats. Although this is just one more seat than they won in 2014, they have been sliding badly in the other four Landtags of the former East Germany, which are Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt. It is clear that Bodo has been performing particularly well as a Minister-President of Thuringia, but other Die Linke leaders in the other four Alt Ostlander (former eastern states) have not learned from him much, if at all, to resist the long-term trend against Die Linke. Only amongst voters aged over 60, old enough to remember living through East Germany as adults, did Die Linke lead; amongst those who can only remember East Germany as children or adolescents the AfD had a noticeable lead, and the vote was most fragmented amongst those Thuringians who were born after German reunification. This pattern is mirrored elsewhere in Europe amongst similar parties.
More problematic for Bodo, however, was the fact that his coalition partners, the SPD and the Greens, in their case for the first time in any German election in two years, lost enough seats to prevent the continuation of his "red-red-green" government, which only had a majority of 2 in the Thuringian Landtag. It seems surprising the Greens lost seats in Thuringia, but the Thuringian Greens' stance on major issues such as education did not strike a chord outside the university city of Jena and the Thuringian capital, Erfurt, and Thuringia is not a heavily urbanised Land, unlike Nordrhein-Westfalen. It is also worth noting that the FDP, by the grand margin of 5 votes on the final count, passed the Funf Prozent threshold to win seats in the Thuringian Landtag, winning 5, which indirectly cost the Greens a seat. Had they narrowly failed to cross that electoral threshold, the Greens would have kept their 6 seats in Thuringia although their vote share also dropped by 0.5%; it increased in the old university city of Jena but dropped noticeably in the towns where the main electoral battleground is.
Surprisingly, it was the AfD who finished second in Thüringen, pushing the CDU into third place; Thuringia is however the weakest Land in former East Germany for the CDU. The AfD more than doubled its vote share to 23.4%, and doubled its seat total to 22, one more than the CDU who lost out heavily except in a few Wahlkreisen (single member constituencies) where the AfD backed the CDU incumbent. This proved particularly shocking because Bjorn Hocke, the AfD leader in Thuringia, is the most extreme of all the AfD leaders in Germany in political outlook and an anti-Semitic speech he made in 2017 almost resulted in his expulsion from the AfD. The AfD has been achieving strong levels of support in the former East Germany for three key reasons: unemployment being nearly treble that of the former West Germany, limited and few opportunities outside the university cities, and a feeling of alienation from the wealthier Western Lander; these same three factors in part lead to older people entrenching their support for Die Linke. Thuringia is not by any means the strongest supporter of the AfD, and the only Wahlkreisen they won were on less than 30% of the votes cast apiece. The CDU mainly held up in the north of the province, especially in the Catholic enclave of Eichsfeld which also gave respectable results for the minor Familien Party (which teamed up with the ODP, Germany's green conservatives, at this election) due to its highly conservative nature.
Although Bodo is practically certain to remain Minister-President of Thuringia coalition formation may prove impossible in the Thuringian Landtag for now, due to insufficient numbers for the "red-red-green" coalition, the fact the CDU will never work with Die Linke, and no other party being willing to work with AfD, especially not with Bjorn Hocke leading the AfD in Thuringia. Between them Die Linke and the AfD won 51 seats out of 90, or 56.66%, making any coalition not including Die Linke impossible. It can therefore be said that the FDP thus now hold the real balance of power, in a way-the continuation of the current "red-red-green" coalition, which is still the only viable governmental formation in Thuringia, will depend on the FDP providing confidence and supply and/or abstaining sometimes.
It was the first Landtag election in the modern era of German politics (i.e. since the reunification of Germany in 1990) where neither the Christian Democratic Union nor the Social Democratic Party of Germany finished in the top two, and the first where Die Linke topped the poll.
Notably, Die Linke in Thuringia (Thüringen) is led by Bodo Ramelow, one of the more moderate Die Linke politicians, and he has acquired a strong personal vote along the way. For the third consecutive Thuringian election, Die Linke improved on its vote share and seats won, bucking the trend in former East German states, especially Brandenburg and Saxony. Die Linke polled 31%, the highest in any former East German Land in the modern German political era, giving it 29 seats. Although this is just one more seat than they won in 2014, they have been sliding badly in the other four Landtags of the former East Germany, which are Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt. It is clear that Bodo has been performing particularly well as a Minister-President of Thuringia, but other Die Linke leaders in the other four Alt Ostlander (former eastern states) have not learned from him much, if at all, to resist the long-term trend against Die Linke. Only amongst voters aged over 60, old enough to remember living through East Germany as adults, did Die Linke lead; amongst those who can only remember East Germany as children or adolescents the AfD had a noticeable lead, and the vote was most fragmented amongst those Thuringians who were born after German reunification. This pattern is mirrored elsewhere in Europe amongst similar parties.
More problematic for Bodo, however, was the fact that his coalition partners, the SPD and the Greens, in their case for the first time in any German election in two years, lost enough seats to prevent the continuation of his "red-red-green" government, which only had a majority of 2 in the Thuringian Landtag. It seems surprising the Greens lost seats in Thuringia, but the Thuringian Greens' stance on major issues such as education did not strike a chord outside the university city of Jena and the Thuringian capital, Erfurt, and Thuringia is not a heavily urbanised Land, unlike Nordrhein-Westfalen. It is also worth noting that the FDP, by the grand margin of 5 votes on the final count, passed the Funf Prozent threshold to win seats in the Thuringian Landtag, winning 5, which indirectly cost the Greens a seat. Had they narrowly failed to cross that electoral threshold, the Greens would have kept their 6 seats in Thuringia although their vote share also dropped by 0.5%; it increased in the old university city of Jena but dropped noticeably in the towns where the main electoral battleground is.
Surprisingly, it was the AfD who finished second in Thüringen, pushing the CDU into third place; Thuringia is however the weakest Land in former East Germany for the CDU. The AfD more than doubled its vote share to 23.4%, and doubled its seat total to 22, one more than the CDU who lost out heavily except in a few Wahlkreisen (single member constituencies) where the AfD backed the CDU incumbent. This proved particularly shocking because Bjorn Hocke, the AfD leader in Thuringia, is the most extreme of all the AfD leaders in Germany in political outlook and an anti-Semitic speech he made in 2017 almost resulted in his expulsion from the AfD. The AfD has been achieving strong levels of support in the former East Germany for three key reasons: unemployment being nearly treble that of the former West Germany, limited and few opportunities outside the university cities, and a feeling of alienation from the wealthier Western Lander; these same three factors in part lead to older people entrenching their support for Die Linke. Thuringia is not by any means the strongest supporter of the AfD, and the only Wahlkreisen they won were on less than 30% of the votes cast apiece. The CDU mainly held up in the north of the province, especially in the Catholic enclave of Eichsfeld which also gave respectable results for the minor Familien Party (which teamed up with the ODP, Germany's green conservatives, at this election) due to its highly conservative nature.
Although Bodo is practically certain to remain Minister-President of Thuringia coalition formation may prove impossible in the Thuringian Landtag for now, due to insufficient numbers for the "red-red-green" coalition, the fact the CDU will never work with Die Linke, and no other party being willing to work with AfD, especially not with Bjorn Hocke leading the AfD in Thuringia. Between them Die Linke and the AfD won 51 seats out of 90, or 56.66%, making any coalition not including Die Linke impossible. It can therefore be said that the FDP thus now hold the real balance of power, in a way-the continuation of the current "red-red-green" coalition, which is still the only viable governmental formation in Thuringia, will depend on the FDP providing confidence and supply and/or abstaining sometimes.
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