My analysis of local by-elections from the first two weeks of October 2019 and other thoughts
Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 3 October and 10 October 2019 were as follows:
(3/10/19):
Aberdeen UA, Bridge of Don (1st preferences, double by-election): Conservative 1857(36.2%, +10.3%), SNP 1797 (35.0%, +0.9%), Liberal Democrats 929 (18.1%, +8.8%), Labour 305 (5.9%, -5.2%) Green 140 (2.7%), UKIP 55 (1.1%), Independent (McLean) 43 (0.8%, -0.1%), Red Party 9 (0.2%). Conservative and SNP elected at stages 5 and 6. [Other Independents did not stand]
Cardiff UA, Whitchurch & Tongynlais: Conservative 1544 (36.4%, -4.5%), Labour 1190 (28.0%, -10.0%), Plaid Cymru 674 (15.9%, +2.3%), Liberal Democrats 588 (13.9%, +6.3%), Green 248 (5.8%).
Charnwood DC, Syston West: Conservative 406 (44.7%, -6.4%), Green 389 (42.8%, +19.4%), Labour 114 (12.5%, -13.0%).
Essex CC, Clacton East: Independent (Stephenson) 1231 (36.9%), Conservative 1223 (36.6%, +5.4%), Holland-on-Sea Matters 537 (16.1%), Liberal Democrats 140 (4.2%, +2.4%), Labour 111 (3.3%, -6.1%), Green 97 (2.9%, +1.3%). Independent gain from Conservative. [UKIP and one previous Independent did not stand]
St Albans BC, Clarence: Liberal Democrats 1177 (68.8%, +11.0%), Conservative 314 (18.4%, -4.1%), Labour 112 (6.5%, -6.4%) Green 107 (6.3%, -0.5%)
Somerset West & Taunton DC, Norton Fitzwarren & Staplegrove: Liberal Democrats 686 (53.7%, +17.6%), Conservative 493 (38.6%, +21.2%), Green 67 (5.2%, -13.3%), Labour 31 (2.4%,-5.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time]
(10/10/19):
Basingstoke & Deane BC, Bramley & Shenfield: Independent (Tomblin) 800 (57.2%), Conservative 449 (32.1%, -24.1%) Independent (Bowyer) 150 (10.7%). Independent gain from Conservative; all changes are since May.
Corby BC, Beanfield: Labour 818 (56.0%, -5.1%), Conservative 497 (34.0%, +17.4%), Liberal Democrats 147 (10.0%). [UKIP did not stand]
Watford BC, Tudor: Liberal Democrats 871 (55.4%, -5.2%), Conservative 490 (31.2%, +13.2%), Labour 210 (13.4%, -8.0%). All changes are since May.
As I was at the Green Party Autumn 2019 Conference in Newport last weekend I delayed the analysis of by-elections from 3 October 2019 by one week.
One universal pattern across all these by-elections is how poorly Labour have performed, although in many cases they were subject to a heavy squeeze, often by the Liberal Democrats but also by the Greens in Syston and the SNP in Bridge of Don. Tactical voting nearly ensured a Green win in Syston West, where the Greens had come a good second in May and where they hoped to build on their success in nearby East Goscote. However, the Conservative vote is holding up much better in smaller towns and villages than in cities and suburbs thereof, as shown in Whitchurch & Tongynlais, Cardiff where only Labour's poor reputation meant it was not able to capture the seat from the Conservatives, which will undoubtedly spell trouble for Labour in seats such as Cardiff North (in which this ward is located), a key seat in the next general election.
The Liberal Democrats did well in all of these by-elections where they stood except in Tudor in south Watford, where there was a 9.2% swing to the Conservatives despite Watford being a bellwether in terms of the Remain/Leave divide, although it does have a high owner-occupier rate; owner-occupiers, especially those owning their homes outright, are the most loyal to the Conservatives in terms of tenure. It also shows complacency in the Liberal Democrat administration of Watford, which they have controlled since 2004.(albeit with the Mayor's casting vote from 2015-16). They were also unable to prevent a Conservative hold of one of the two seats in the by-election in Bridge of Don, Aberdeen's most prosperous suburb, with the Conservatives absorbing enough votes that had previously gone to an Independent who did not stand in that by-election. It is usual practice for within a double by-election to a Scottish council for each party to field only one candidate to ensure ease of transfers.
Independents also once again did well in villages and small towns, although in Clacton East two competing local Independents, along with UKIP's absence in what was once one of their stereotypically strongest areas in the country nearly allowed a Conservative hold; in the end Mark Stephenson prevailed by 8 votes. Holland-on-Sea is only part of this division which explains the subpar performance of Holland-on-Sea matters in this by-election. A similar situation in Bramley, a village popular with Hampshire commuters, proved to be no barrier at all to an Independent gain. Had the Greens stood in that by-election (they came a good second to the Conservatives in May), they would have a good chance of electing the first ever Green Party councillor in Basingstoke.
On another note, it needs to be said that banning food and drink completely on public transport will not tackle obesity, childhood or otherwise-this requires a cultural change, better access to green space, better opportunities for physical exercise, tax incentives on fruit, vegetables, and genuinely nutritious food, and better public transport so people become less reliant on cars.
(3/10/19):
Aberdeen UA, Bridge of Don (1st preferences, double by-election): Conservative 1857(36.2%, +10.3%), SNP 1797 (35.0%, +0.9%), Liberal Democrats 929 (18.1%, +8.8%), Labour 305 (5.9%, -5.2%) Green 140 (2.7%), UKIP 55 (1.1%), Independent (McLean) 43 (0.8%, -0.1%), Red Party 9 (0.2%). Conservative and SNP elected at stages 5 and 6. [Other Independents did not stand]
Cardiff UA, Whitchurch & Tongynlais: Conservative 1544 (36.4%, -4.5%), Labour 1190 (28.0%, -10.0%), Plaid Cymru 674 (15.9%, +2.3%), Liberal Democrats 588 (13.9%, +6.3%), Green 248 (5.8%).
Charnwood DC, Syston West: Conservative 406 (44.7%, -6.4%), Green 389 (42.8%, +19.4%), Labour 114 (12.5%, -13.0%).
Essex CC, Clacton East: Independent (Stephenson) 1231 (36.9%), Conservative 1223 (36.6%, +5.4%), Holland-on-Sea Matters 537 (16.1%), Liberal Democrats 140 (4.2%, +2.4%), Labour 111 (3.3%, -6.1%), Green 97 (2.9%, +1.3%). Independent gain from Conservative. [UKIP and one previous Independent did not stand]
St Albans BC, Clarence: Liberal Democrats 1177 (68.8%, +11.0%), Conservative 314 (18.4%, -4.1%), Labour 112 (6.5%, -6.4%) Green 107 (6.3%, -0.5%)
Somerset West & Taunton DC, Norton Fitzwarren & Staplegrove: Liberal Democrats 686 (53.7%, +17.6%), Conservative 493 (38.6%, +21.2%), Green 67 (5.2%, -13.3%), Labour 31 (2.4%,-5.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time]
(10/10/19):
Basingstoke & Deane BC, Bramley & Shenfield: Independent (Tomblin) 800 (57.2%), Conservative 449 (32.1%, -24.1%) Independent (Bowyer) 150 (10.7%). Independent gain from Conservative; all changes are since May.
Corby BC, Beanfield: Labour 818 (56.0%, -5.1%), Conservative 497 (34.0%, +17.4%), Liberal Democrats 147 (10.0%). [UKIP did not stand]
Watford BC, Tudor: Liberal Democrats 871 (55.4%, -5.2%), Conservative 490 (31.2%, +13.2%), Labour 210 (13.4%, -8.0%). All changes are since May.
As I was at the Green Party Autumn 2019 Conference in Newport last weekend I delayed the analysis of by-elections from 3 October 2019 by one week.
One universal pattern across all these by-elections is how poorly Labour have performed, although in many cases they were subject to a heavy squeeze, often by the Liberal Democrats but also by the Greens in Syston and the SNP in Bridge of Don. Tactical voting nearly ensured a Green win in Syston West, where the Greens had come a good second in May and where they hoped to build on their success in nearby East Goscote. However, the Conservative vote is holding up much better in smaller towns and villages than in cities and suburbs thereof, as shown in Whitchurch & Tongynlais, Cardiff where only Labour's poor reputation meant it was not able to capture the seat from the Conservatives, which will undoubtedly spell trouble for Labour in seats such as Cardiff North (in which this ward is located), a key seat in the next general election.
The Liberal Democrats did well in all of these by-elections where they stood except in Tudor in south Watford, where there was a 9.2% swing to the Conservatives despite Watford being a bellwether in terms of the Remain/Leave divide, although it does have a high owner-occupier rate; owner-occupiers, especially those owning their homes outright, are the most loyal to the Conservatives in terms of tenure. It also shows complacency in the Liberal Democrat administration of Watford, which they have controlled since 2004.(albeit with the Mayor's casting vote from 2015-16). They were also unable to prevent a Conservative hold of one of the two seats in the by-election in Bridge of Don, Aberdeen's most prosperous suburb, with the Conservatives absorbing enough votes that had previously gone to an Independent who did not stand in that by-election. It is usual practice for within a double by-election to a Scottish council for each party to field only one candidate to ensure ease of transfers.
Independents also once again did well in villages and small towns, although in Clacton East two competing local Independents, along with UKIP's absence in what was once one of their stereotypically strongest areas in the country nearly allowed a Conservative hold; in the end Mark Stephenson prevailed by 8 votes. Holland-on-Sea is only part of this division which explains the subpar performance of Holland-on-Sea matters in this by-election. A similar situation in Bramley, a village popular with Hampshire commuters, proved to be no barrier at all to an Independent gain. Had the Greens stood in that by-election (they came a good second to the Conservatives in May), they would have a good chance of electing the first ever Green Party councillor in Basingstoke.
On another note, it needs to be said that banning food and drink completely on public transport will not tackle obesity, childhood or otherwise-this requires a cultural change, better access to green space, better opportunities for physical exercise, tax incentives on fruit, vegetables, and genuinely nutritious food, and better public transport so people become less reliant on cars.
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