My analysis of British local by-elections from 24/10/19

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 24 October 2019 were as follows:

Daventry DC, Abbey North: Conservative 376 (41.0%, +13.9%), Liberal Democrats 280 (30.5%, +9.7%) , Labour 262 (28.5%, -11.3%). Conservative gain from Labour. [UKIP and Independents did not stand]

Devon CC, Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Labour 1032 (31.9%, -19.4%), Conservative 992 (30.7%, -0.7%), Liberal Democrats 576 (17.8%, +11.%1), Green 567 (17.4%, +11.5%), For Britain 70 (2.2%). [UKIP did not stand]

Flintshire UA, Bagilt West: Labour 251 (63.5%), Independent (Stanley) 144 (36.5%).

Powys UA, Llandrindod North: Liberal Democrats 226 (47.2%), Conservative 164 (34.2%, -19.6%), Labour 89 (18.6%, -1.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Green Party did not stand]

Powys UA, Newtown South: Conservative 134 (43.5%, -11.4%), Liberal Democrats 110 (35.7%), Plaid Cymru 64 (20.8%, -8.7%). [No Independents this time]

South Ribble DC, Coupe Green & Gregson Lane: Conservative 437 (49.1%, -0.8%), Independent (Dixon) 343 (38.5%), Liberal Democrats 110 (12.4%). [Labour and UKIP did not stand]

West Lindsey DC, Torksey: Conservative 378 (35.7%, -22.9%), Liberal Democrats 346 (32.6%, -8.8%), Brexit Party 299 (28.2%), Labour 37 (3.5%).

Wiltshire UA, Melksham Without South: Conservative 593 (60.4%, +5.1%), Liberal Democrats 388 (39.6%, +21.5%). [UKIP and Independent candidates did not stand]

Had the Greens fielded a candidate in Llandrindod North, it is likely that they instead of the Liberal Democrats would have won that particular by-election, given their excellent performance in the town of Llandrindod Wells in 2017. Powys is also the only authority in Wales to have a Green Party councillor, namely Emily Durrant in Llangors.  In the absence of a Green candidate the Liberal Democrats had an easy gain from the Conservatives in that by-election. They also came close in less promising Newtown; Llandrindod Wells is in Brecon & Radnorshire whilst Newtown is in Montgomeryshire.

The Greens performed well in the one by-election they did stand in this week, however: Heavitree & Whipton in Exeter, where they won their first council seat in May after 40 years of trying. Following on from their excellent performance in Exeter in the European elections (nearly finishing first in fact) they came a good fourth despite the Liberal Democrats also managing to win over some dissatisfied Labour voters.

The Brexit Party finished a strong third in the only by-election this week it fielded a candidate in, partly due to the knowledge Brexit would be delayed again with Boris Johnson requesting a further extension to the Brexit deadline in time to call an early general election. Although within West Lindsey the town of Gainsborough itself has always been more promising for the Liberal Democrats than the surrounding villages, the Liberal Democrats nevertheless came close in Torksey, on the edge of the district. Even in small Midlands villages pro-European voters can be found in rather surprising numbers.

Although Daventry is the most safely Conservative (and more importantly, soon to be abolished just like all the other districts of Northamptonshire) district of Northamptonshire, Labour's loss of Abbey North spells trouble for Labour in the event of an early general election actually happening, as it is the type of Conservative-Labour marginal crucial to Labour becoming the largest party instead of the Conservatives.





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