Predicting the December 2019 general election

Yesterday, Parliament voted 438-20 to affirm that there will be a general election in the United Kingdom on 12 December 2019, marking the third United Kingdom general election in less than five years. In the run-up to this election, as many as 52 MPs have announced they will be standing down, most notably including Father of the House and former Chancellor Kenneth Clarke and John Bercow, Speaker of the House of Commons since 2010. 18 of these MPs were first elected since 2010 and thus post-expenses scandal. Brexit-related stress has undoubtedly been responsible for many of these retirements, and the deprivation of the whip simply for voting against a no-deal Brexit prompted the retirement of a few Conservative MPs, including Nicholas Soames and Rory Stewart.

With many incumbents who have lost the whip for one reason or another choosing to stand as Independents and with the additional factor of Liberal Democrat MPs (specifically those who were originally elected as Labour or Conservative MPs) switching seats to have a supposedly better prospect of being re-elected, this, as Professor Phillip Cowley stated yesterday, will be the most difficult British general election to predict ever.

However, it becomes easier when you look at predictions seat by seat, as I did so earlier this year. Polling has since shown a consistent if narrow Conservative lead over Labour, and with the Brexit Party on the wane somewhat, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens doing better than ever. The fact Ruth Davidson is no longer leader of the Scottish Conservatives also bodes well for the SNP.

On this basis, here are my new predictions of seats changing hands at this election, however unpredictable it may be:

Labour gain from Conservative (12):

Worthing East & Shoreham, Southport, Hastings & Rye, Harrow East, Chingford & Woodford Green, Broxtowe, Chipping Barnet, Calder Valley, Milton Keynes North, Milton Keynes South, Wycombe, Reading West.

Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative (14):

Cheltenham, Richmond Park, Guildford, Cheadle, Hazel Grove, Wimbledon, Putney, Lewes, St Ives, Wells, St Albans, Winchester, South Cambridgeshire.

Green gain from Conservative (1):

Isle of Wight.

SNP gain from Conservative (10):

All Conservative-held seats in Scotland except Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (10 gains in total)

Brexit gain from Conservative (1):

Thurrock.

Independent gain from Conservative (1):

East Devon.

Liberal Democrat gain from Labour (3):

Leeds North West, Sheffield Hallam, Cambridge.

Green gain from Labour (1):

Bristol West.

Conservative gain from Labour (8):

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Barrow-in-Furness, Crewe & Nantwich, Dudley North, Bishop Auckland, Bassetlaw, Wrexham.

SNP gain from Labour (6):

All Scottish Labour-held seats except Edinburgh South (6 in total).

Plaid Cymru gain from Labour (1):

Ynys Mon.

Ashfield Independents gain from Labour (1):

Ashfield.

Liberal Democrat gain from SNP (1):

North East Fife.

Too close to call (watch these 30 seats carefully):

Ceredigion, Stroud, Shrewsbury & Atcham, Derby North, Bury North, Bury South, Southampton Itchen, Colchester, Portsmouth South, Hartlepool, Great Grimsby, Cities of London & Westminster, Altrincham & Sale West, Rushcliffe, Rother Valley, Colne Valley, Gloucester, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Totnes, Canterbury, Warwick & Leamington, Lincoln, Stockton South, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Kensington, Battersea, Brecon & Radnorshire, Watford, Bedford, Peterborough.

The distribution of Conservative and Labour vote share increases in particular within the 2017 general election mean that the number of marginal seats is dwindling, making it more difficult for any party, particularly Labour, to gain a working majority in the House of Commons.