My analysis of the Polish parliamentary election of 2019
The most recent Polish parliamentary election, which took place yesterday, resulted in surprisingly little change overall, despite more opposition parties entering the Sejm (Polish Parliament).
The national conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) retained its single-party majority in the Sejm, polling 43.6%; however, it did lose 9 seats (still leaving it with 235) when taking other parties it allied with in 2015 and also PiS lost its majority in the Senate, which unlike the Sejm elects its members by first past the post instead of proportional representation via constituencies, usually voivodeships (small provinces). PiS did not start off well, with its proposal for a very restrictive abortion law rejected in the Sejm and its attempt to undermine judicial independence via a judicial restructuring bill being vetoed by Polish President Andrzej Duda, despite President Duda originally being from the same Law and Justice Party that proposed the bill in question. It has also changed Prime Ministers twice, with Beata Szydlo resigning after Mateusz Morawiecki and Jaroslaw Kaczynski (the actual leader of PiS), brother of late Polish President Lech Kaczynski and a former Prime Minister of Poland himself, expressed no confidence in her, and Mateusz Morawiecki was not PiS' Prime Ministerial candidate this time.
The Civic Coalition, led by Civic Platform whose past leaders and Prime Ministers include former European Commission President Donald Tusk, was the main beneficiary of PiS' losses, with the Civic Coalition increasing its Senators to 43, with PiS losing 13 Senate seats bringing it down to 48. Furthermore, the Left Coalition, led by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), managed to win 2 Senate seats, and the agrarian and regionalist Polish People's Party (PSL) led Polish Coalition won an extra 2 Senate seats as well, meaning that there will be at least upper house obstruction of any PiS attempt to shift Poland further in a national conservative direction.
Social democracy returned to the Sejm via a broad coalition comprising the SLD, Razem, and the social democratic Spring, winning 49 seats. However, it remains a minor opposition party and the liberal conservative Civic Platform remains the main opposition in Poland, along with its other coalition partners who interestingly included the Polish Greens; back in 2015 they allied with the United Left alliance which experienced a disastrous failure. It must be noted that the fact that another two parties crossed the 5% threshold (8% threshold in the case of alliances of two or more parties) resulted in the Civic Coalition losing, compared to the results of its component parties, as many as 23 seats, even though its vote share increased by 3.3% compared to Civic Platform's (PO's) result in 2015. The extreme Confederation coalition, led by the notorious Janus Korwin-Mikke, polled 6.8%, enough for 11 seats, attracting support from those with "libertarian right" views but not performing particularly well in any Polish constituency, unlike the other four parties who had clear areas of concentrated support, and surprisingly attracting considerable support from younger voters; normally similar parties attract support from older voters. The only four constituencies where the Civic Coalition (KO) topped the poll included Warsaw I (the capital city itself; Warsaw II is "Warsaw Outer"), Gdansk, Lodz, Poznan, and Szczecin, all of which are or are dominated by major cities. Seats in which the leaders of each party stood did not experience a particularly better than usual vote for that party; Sosnowiec recorded the highest United Left vote in 2015 and once again did so in 2019; the fact that Wlodzmierz Czarzasty, the leader of The Left, was standing there made no significant impact on The Left's result in Sosnowiec, which was only 1.8% higher than in Lodz, another social democratic/socialist stronghold. All the parties that won seats in the Sejm, apart from Law and Justice, were alliances of at least three political parties apiece; like in Hungary, electoral alliances are increasingly necessary for the opposition despite stricter requirements for alliances regarding entering the Sejm (8% as opposed to 5% for a single party).
PiS remains dominant due to the fact voters in cities where the opposition parties are strongest are less mobilised at election time; the Polish social democratic and socialist parties are only just recovering from the doldrums they have been in since the SLD's catastrophic defeat of 2004 following "Rywin-gate". Civic Platform's more free-market stance is not particularly appealing to rural voters far from the cities of Warsaw, Gdansk, Lodz et al. and neither is its pro-European stance. The same political divides that exist across Western Europe also apply to Poland.
No other party succeeded in winning seats, except for the German Minority list which is entitled to run a minority list under Polish electoral law, along with the SIlesian minority; similar minority electoral list rights exist in Hungary which Poland is coming closer to in terms of overall political outlook, except in terms of the press.
It is clear that the PiS has hit its peak, with two changes of Prime Minister in its first term, and will decline from there henceforth as its hardline conservative programme turns off moderate voters too much.
The national conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) retained its single-party majority in the Sejm, polling 43.6%; however, it did lose 9 seats (still leaving it with 235) when taking other parties it allied with in 2015 and also PiS lost its majority in the Senate, which unlike the Sejm elects its members by first past the post instead of proportional representation via constituencies, usually voivodeships (small provinces). PiS did not start off well, with its proposal for a very restrictive abortion law rejected in the Sejm and its attempt to undermine judicial independence via a judicial restructuring bill being vetoed by Polish President Andrzej Duda, despite President Duda originally being from the same Law and Justice Party that proposed the bill in question. It has also changed Prime Ministers twice, with Beata Szydlo resigning after Mateusz Morawiecki and Jaroslaw Kaczynski (the actual leader of PiS), brother of late Polish President Lech Kaczynski and a former Prime Minister of Poland himself, expressed no confidence in her, and Mateusz Morawiecki was not PiS' Prime Ministerial candidate this time.
The Civic Coalition, led by Civic Platform whose past leaders and Prime Ministers include former European Commission President Donald Tusk, was the main beneficiary of PiS' losses, with the Civic Coalition increasing its Senators to 43, with PiS losing 13 Senate seats bringing it down to 48. Furthermore, the Left Coalition, led by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), managed to win 2 Senate seats, and the agrarian and regionalist Polish People's Party (PSL) led Polish Coalition won an extra 2 Senate seats as well, meaning that there will be at least upper house obstruction of any PiS attempt to shift Poland further in a national conservative direction.
Social democracy returned to the Sejm via a broad coalition comprising the SLD, Razem, and the social democratic Spring, winning 49 seats. However, it remains a minor opposition party and the liberal conservative Civic Platform remains the main opposition in Poland, along with its other coalition partners who interestingly included the Polish Greens; back in 2015 they allied with the United Left alliance which experienced a disastrous failure. It must be noted that the fact that another two parties crossed the 5% threshold (8% threshold in the case of alliances of two or more parties) resulted in the Civic Coalition losing, compared to the results of its component parties, as many as 23 seats, even though its vote share increased by 3.3% compared to Civic Platform's (PO's) result in 2015. The extreme Confederation coalition, led by the notorious Janus Korwin-Mikke, polled 6.8%, enough for 11 seats, attracting support from those with "libertarian right" views but not performing particularly well in any Polish constituency, unlike the other four parties who had clear areas of concentrated support, and surprisingly attracting considerable support from younger voters; normally similar parties attract support from older voters. The only four constituencies where the Civic Coalition (KO) topped the poll included Warsaw I (the capital city itself; Warsaw II is "Warsaw Outer"), Gdansk, Lodz, Poznan, and Szczecin, all of which are or are dominated by major cities. Seats in which the leaders of each party stood did not experience a particularly better than usual vote for that party; Sosnowiec recorded the highest United Left vote in 2015 and once again did so in 2019; the fact that Wlodzmierz Czarzasty, the leader of The Left, was standing there made no significant impact on The Left's result in Sosnowiec, which was only 1.8% higher than in Lodz, another social democratic/socialist stronghold. All the parties that won seats in the Sejm, apart from Law and Justice, were alliances of at least three political parties apiece; like in Hungary, electoral alliances are increasingly necessary for the opposition despite stricter requirements for alliances regarding entering the Sejm (8% as opposed to 5% for a single party).
PiS remains dominant due to the fact voters in cities where the opposition parties are strongest are less mobilised at election time; the Polish social democratic and socialist parties are only just recovering from the doldrums they have been in since the SLD's catastrophic defeat of 2004 following "Rywin-gate". Civic Platform's more free-market stance is not particularly appealing to rural voters far from the cities of Warsaw, Gdansk, Lodz et al. and neither is its pro-European stance. The same political divides that exist across Western Europe also apply to Poland.
No other party succeeded in winning seats, except for the German Minority list which is entitled to run a minority list under Polish electoral law, along with the SIlesian minority; similar minority electoral list rights exist in Hungary which Poland is coming closer to in terms of overall political outlook, except in terms of the press.
It is clear that the PiS has hit its peak, with two changes of Prime Minister in its first term, and will decline from there henceforth as its hardline conservative programme turns off moderate voters too much.
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