My analysis of British local by-elections from 17/10/2019 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 17 October 2019 were as follows:

Gravesham BC, Westcourt: Conservative 492 (50.1%, +20.9%), Labour 314 (32.0%, -5.5%), UKIP 116 (11.8%, -11.1%), Green 60 (6.1%). Conservative gain from Labour. [No Description candidate did not stand]

Liverpool MBC, Princes Park: Labour 1259 (73.1%, +0.9%), Green 237 (13.8%, -4.6%), Liberal Democrats 148 (8.6%, +3.2%), Conservative 79 (4.6%, +1.6%). All changes are since May. [Liberal Party did not stand]

North Yorkshire CC, Upper Dales: Conservative 884 (45.7%, +16.2%), Independent (McMullion) 741 (38.3%), Liberal Democrats 204 (10.5%), Green 107 (5.5%, +0.4%). Conservative gain from Independent [Other Independent and Labour did not stand]

Richmondshire DC, Hawes, High Abbotside & Upper Swarfdale: Independent (McMullion) 409 (58.7%), Conservative 231 (33.1%), Green 57 (8.2%). Independent gain from other Independent.

The Westcourt by-election in Gravesham marks the first Conservative gain from Labour in a local by-election in 14 months, and just a fortnight before Britain is due to exit the European Union, with or without a deal; the deal in question is being voted on tomorrow. Labour's lack of coherence regarding Brexit, which matters in large towns like Gravesend, combined with a minor Conservative recovery after their debacle in May, proved decisive in that Conservative gain. Many people who are not dedicated Remain voters now just want the Brexit issue resolved. This had little effect in Princes Park's by-election, and neither did the recent resignation of Liverpool Riverside's Labour MP, Louise Ellman, from the Labour Party. (Princes Park ward is in Liverpool Riverside)

The two by-elections in North Yorkshire, geographically the largest county in England, showed the importance of personal votes when it comes to the most rural wards and divisions. These by-elections were caused by the death of Independent councillor John Blackie, who in 2015 became one of a minority of Independent candidates to save his deposit at that general election with 6.4% of the vote in Richmond (Yorks). The Conservatives captured the division of Upper Dales, geographically the largest in the whole of England amongst county council divisions, since Jill McMullion could not transfer her personal vote far, despite the fact she convincingly won the by-election in the smaller district ward of Hawes, High Abbotside & Upper Swarfdale.

On the same day, the island of Gibraltar held an early general election which saw a breakthrough by the centrist Together for Gibraltar, formed by ex-Gibraltar Social Democrat MP Marlene Nahon, although due to the unique quirks of Gibraltar's electoral system (17 seats available but only a maximum of 10 candidates per party, election by first past the post in a single 17-seat constituency)that party only won one seat despite receiving 20.5% of the vote. Gibraltar's electoral system is clearly designed to force a constant two-party system even more than most first past the post electoral systems do.

Finally, if you live in Britain and believe Britain's voice is stronger in Europe than out of it, please come along to the People's Vote March in London, starting at midday tomorrow. MPs will be voting on the final Brexit deal tomorrow; make sure your voice is heard!



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of local by-elections from 22/11/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%). Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%). Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May. The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Researc...
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian ...
Read more

On the French local elections of 2020: Vive le surge de vert!

The French local elections finally concluded yesterday, having been originally scheduled to take place on 15 March; they were postponed due to the effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.  The most sensational story of these elections was the many triumphs by the main French Green Party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV). In major French cities (those with more than 100,000 people), EELV captured the mayoralties of Annecy, Besancon, Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille, Strasbourg, and Tours. They also performed impressively in the munciipal elections for those cities as well. However, in the midst of all this triumph there was one notable setback for them: Eric Pollie, the first Green Mayor of a major French city, decided to contest the mayoral election there as an "Independent Left" (divers gauche) candidate instead. Furthermore they narrowly missed out on unseating former PS leader Martine Aubry from her post as Mayor of Lille; in the second round she held on by 227 votes, a sig...
Read more