My analysis of British local by-elections from 17/10/2019 and other thoughts
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 17 October 2019 were as follows:
Gravesham BC, Westcourt: Conservative 492 (50.1%, +20.9%), Labour 314 (32.0%, -5.5%), UKIP 116 (11.8%, -11.1%), Green 60 (6.1%). Conservative gain from Labour. [No Description candidate did not stand]
Liverpool MBC, Princes Park: Labour 1259 (73.1%, +0.9%), Green 237 (13.8%, -4.6%), Liberal Democrats 148 (8.6%, +3.2%), Conservative 79 (4.6%, +1.6%). All changes are since May. [Liberal Party did not stand]
North Yorkshire CC, Upper Dales: Conservative 884 (45.7%, +16.2%), Independent (McMullion) 741 (38.3%), Liberal Democrats 204 (10.5%), Green 107 (5.5%, +0.4%). Conservative gain from Independent [Other Independent and Labour did not stand]
Richmondshire DC, Hawes, High Abbotside & Upper Swarfdale: Independent (McMullion) 409 (58.7%), Conservative 231 (33.1%), Green 57 (8.2%). Independent gain from other Independent.
The Westcourt by-election in Gravesham marks the first Conservative gain from Labour in a local by-election in 14 months, and just a fortnight before Britain is due to exit the European Union, with or without a deal; the deal in question is being voted on tomorrow. Labour's lack of coherence regarding Brexit, which matters in large towns like Gravesend, combined with a minor Conservative recovery after their debacle in May, proved decisive in that Conservative gain. Many people who are not dedicated Remain voters now just want the Brexit issue resolved. This had little effect in Princes Park's by-election, and neither did the recent resignation of Liverpool Riverside's Labour MP, Louise Ellman, from the Labour Party. (Princes Park ward is in Liverpool Riverside)
The two by-elections in North Yorkshire, geographically the largest county in England, showed the importance of personal votes when it comes to the most rural wards and divisions. These by-elections were caused by the death of Independent councillor John Blackie, who in 2015 became one of a minority of Independent candidates to save his deposit at that general election with 6.4% of the vote in Richmond (Yorks). The Conservatives captured the division of Upper Dales, geographically the largest in the whole of England amongst county council divisions, since Jill McMullion could not transfer her personal vote far, despite the fact she convincingly won the by-election in the smaller district ward of Hawes, High Abbotside & Upper Swarfdale.
On the same day, the island of Gibraltar held an early general election which saw a breakthrough by the centrist Together for Gibraltar, formed by ex-Gibraltar Social Democrat MP Marlene Nahon, although due to the unique quirks of Gibraltar's electoral system (17 seats available but only a maximum of 10 candidates per party, election by first past the post in a single 17-seat constituency)that party only won one seat despite receiving 20.5% of the vote. Gibraltar's electoral system is clearly designed to force a constant two-party system even more than most first past the post electoral systems do.
Finally, if you live in Britain and believe Britain's voice is stronger in Europe than out of it, please come along to the People's Vote March in London, starting at midday tomorrow. MPs will be voting on the final Brexit deal tomorrow; make sure your voice is heard!
Gravesham BC, Westcourt: Conservative 492 (50.1%, +20.9%), Labour 314 (32.0%, -5.5%), UKIP 116 (11.8%, -11.1%), Green 60 (6.1%). Conservative gain from Labour. [No Description candidate did not stand]
Liverpool MBC, Princes Park: Labour 1259 (73.1%, +0.9%), Green 237 (13.8%, -4.6%), Liberal Democrats 148 (8.6%, +3.2%), Conservative 79 (4.6%, +1.6%). All changes are since May. [Liberal Party did not stand]
North Yorkshire CC, Upper Dales: Conservative 884 (45.7%, +16.2%), Independent (McMullion) 741 (38.3%), Liberal Democrats 204 (10.5%), Green 107 (5.5%, +0.4%). Conservative gain from Independent [Other Independent and Labour did not stand]
Richmondshire DC, Hawes, High Abbotside & Upper Swarfdale: Independent (McMullion) 409 (58.7%), Conservative 231 (33.1%), Green 57 (8.2%). Independent gain from other Independent.
The Westcourt by-election in Gravesham marks the first Conservative gain from Labour in a local by-election in 14 months, and just a fortnight before Britain is due to exit the European Union, with or without a deal; the deal in question is being voted on tomorrow. Labour's lack of coherence regarding Brexit, which matters in large towns like Gravesend, combined with a minor Conservative recovery after their debacle in May, proved decisive in that Conservative gain. Many people who are not dedicated Remain voters now just want the Brexit issue resolved. This had little effect in Princes Park's by-election, and neither did the recent resignation of Liverpool Riverside's Labour MP, Louise Ellman, from the Labour Party. (Princes Park ward is in Liverpool Riverside)
The two by-elections in North Yorkshire, geographically the largest county in England, showed the importance of personal votes when it comes to the most rural wards and divisions. These by-elections were caused by the death of Independent councillor John Blackie, who in 2015 became one of a minority of Independent candidates to save his deposit at that general election with 6.4% of the vote in Richmond (Yorks). The Conservatives captured the division of Upper Dales, geographically the largest in the whole of England amongst county council divisions, since Jill McMullion could not transfer her personal vote far, despite the fact she convincingly won the by-election in the smaller district ward of Hawes, High Abbotside & Upper Swarfdale.
On the same day, the island of Gibraltar held an early general election which saw a breakthrough by the centrist Together for Gibraltar, formed by ex-Gibraltar Social Democrat MP Marlene Nahon, although due to the unique quirks of Gibraltar's electoral system (17 seats available but only a maximum of 10 candidates per party, election by first past the post in a single 17-seat constituency)that party only won one seat despite receiving 20.5% of the vote. Gibraltar's electoral system is clearly designed to force a constant two-party system even more than most first past the post electoral systems do.
Finally, if you live in Britain and believe Britain's voice is stronger in Europe than out of it, please come along to the People's Vote March in London, starting at midday tomorrow. MPs will be voting on the final Brexit deal tomorrow; make sure your voice is heard!
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